Tough hand, your play is definitely reasonable, if you do decide to play turn that way I think the river is fine and standard. Keep in mind you don't need to bet the turn to protect from draws if he will bluff all his draws!
DD, I am surprised you dont have a more definitive answer here.
Turn play, Turn play, Turn play...he who masters the turn, masters limit hold em.
1) i like to simplify cause otherwise I cant keep up...lol
Can we group X6..22-55, AQ AJ all together here? and assume hero should play them all the same, assuming all other factors stay the same? (on the turn I mean)
2) the flop is VB(we have good equity vs villains range) and c-bet and I see no reason whatsoever for not betting.
3) Read of villain...none, unknown
4)Villains range...must be kept in mind this guesstimate could be much wider or much narrower as villain is unknown, so no hand can be completely eliminated....he might have AA or 32s or 64o.
preflop(CC two, bad play, wider range)....22-99....A9-AJo,A2s-AJs....KT+...QT+...JT...maybe T9s, 98s,87s
after flop call....the same IMO. I think it would be wrong to assume he would raise with say a K or a 8 or a PP above 6. Its true he might, and I think we can use this info to lessen the weight given to some hands but we have no idea how he plays.
5) should hero bet the turn?(Mickey gets out his cookbook, which tool to use?)
Tool 1..VB...Equity wise vs villains range its a clear VB.
Board read>>>> the 8 and 6 are bricks, we only fear KX, FD and 66-99
and mostly the FD as there are only two K's left and they may have raised the flop,
99..6 combos (should be discounted as no 3 bet pf)
KX...24 combos (discounted no flop raise)
40 combos we are behind, 14 FD combos, 129 combos missed (perhaps a few of these might fold the flop)
Tool 2 ...Value Check...or Check to Induce
MAIN QUESTION IMO...is it best to induce or just VB in a straight forward manner vs a unknown?
Factors to consider when deciding a value check..
1) chance we will be raised
2) if raised must we call
3) number of outs opponent is likely to have
4) will villain bluff/bet with a hand we beat
5) size of pot
numbers 1 and 4, are not answerable vs an unknown. this is a read dependent play/tool.
and the meaning of a raise is unknown. Villain is using default also, does he expect us to fold to his raise?
the river Q, is a bad card as it doesnt help us, and hits some of villains range, but doesnt change things enough IMO to change our plan.
Bottomline....5/10 is an aggressive game(Gus). players routinely semi-bluff the turn.
Default means, we have no reads at the beginning of the hand.
We can use "limit played"...and the cold called two preflop but thats all we got.
Villain is badish player, probably playing a wider than normal range, is not too agg or he would have 3 bet PF. I just dont think we have enough of a read to make a big adjustment from default.
I am not going to pretend I know what is the correct play here, I dont.
But my best guess is...
We must get this hand to SD, we cant fold to a raise as our hand strenght on this board is too strong. the pot is smallish, villain may have a ton of outs but most likley 6.
there is no guarantee he will bluff, but he might.
however, if the turn checks through, villian will look us up with ace high on the river.
would we rather have villain decide 3 bets are going in, or us decide 1 or 2 bets are going in?
I get to SD, I c/c the turn, c/c the river,
if the turn checks through, I b/f the river.