Was playing some 8/16 live the other day and thought the following hand merits some discussion:
Hero is a well known regular at this particular casino with a quite tight but very aggressive image. Villain is an older gentleman who generally plays weak but isnt afraid to bet his hands in short handed pots. I have not played more then 30 hands hu wih this particular opponent so it is possible my read with him isn't as correct as I believe it to be.
utg-mp1 fold and villain limps in for 8
folded to hero who is on btn with Jd8d
sb completes, bb checks.
sb checks, bb checks, villain checks, hero checks.
sb checks, bb bets 16, villain calls, hero calls, sb folds
bb checks, villain bets 16, hero raises to 32, bb folds, villain folds.
My thought process for this hand:
I briefly considered to raise this pot to get it to the flop hu but opted to just call. I have position, I can see the flop cheaply versus weaker opponents.
I consider a bet on this flop to be a little bit ambitous. It could work if I had raised preflop but at this point I have a backdoor straight and flushdraw. I also believe it is possible a pair could be good. thus I check behind.
turn comes the 7d. In hindsight it is easy to spot that bb was simply firing a bluff, but when villain cold calls I feel he is rather weak. I would be shocked if he has as good as A7 there. In my mind he has a hand similar to 67, 78. possibly a fd. With the hands I had played with him he would have bet out with a Queen or a 4. Thus I lean towards him having a 7 at best. Again, a raise seems fishy and raising on the turn here would result in 2 folds at best and I would have swelled a pot with Jack high.
River comes the Queen of diamonds. Double pairing the board. Now the average field in this spot check calls with an Ace high here.
When bb checks it indicates to me that he as simply trying to buy the pot on the turn. It is possible he has a 4 and he is timid but he showed no confidence at any point. When villain bets the river I put his overall range on Ax, A7, weaker 7x's, 4x, Qx, and f\d's. Now villain does bet his hands. If he had a legitamite hand I believe he would have bet or raised at a one point before the river with a Q or 4. Thus I put him on 7x,s and if he is creative enough it is possible that he has an Ace. When I raise my flush I am both raising as a bluff and for value. By calling I cannot lose more to any full houses or better flushes. By raising I am getting a 4 to fold.... probably somewhere around as high as 10% of the time. I'm not entirely sure on that number. I see people fold bottom full houses but not all too often. The biggest reason why I raise is I get Kx and Ax diamonds to fold.
Should I just call in this spot or is it better to raise to be getting better flushes to fold, possibly some 4x's. With how the action went I would have been rather shocked to see a full house tho...
I am raise folding the river.