I don't think villain's bet here with AQ/AJ all the often as its not really for value or as a bluff, but probably value bet anything better.
I think its a fold. As has already been mentioned he doesn't have many/if any bluffs in his range on the river unless he turns like A2-A5 into a bluff.
Cool. Agreed and I think that A7o or A8o is the bottom of his Ax distribution fwiw. Maybe top 23-24% of hands is what I gave him for his 3betting range.
I think if you have a capping range preflop then this hand should go in that bucket, and if you don't cap anything, then don't cap this either.
Yeah, I like to mix it up and not cap anything sometimes and cap everything depending on how wide I think their 3betting ranges are and how well they play in 3b pots vs capped pots as the major determining factor.
As played I think I'd call down, given that my preflop/postflop line might be encouraging him to barrel a little lightly. We beat some combos of suited aces and when you say he's tilty there's some tiny chance he has some baloney.
That's what I did and I felt like I didn't think through his value range vs bluffing range well enough. He showed me the K7s!
in position I generally widen my capping range (so this goes in) and OOP I narrow it (actually to 0 HU, most times).
I fold the river, there could be a timing tell sometimes if you're not both multitabling, but usually I'd fold.
Yeah I mixing in the no capping range in HU from EP in 6max after watching Zwei is the Loneliest number. I think it's great. HUHU I cap people and try to tilt them relentlessly!
Do you have a guess as to how often he 3bets you preflop when you open from the button?
I think this comes down to what he'll do with ace high on the river. If he's checking most of them most of the time this doesn't seem close to a call.
Assuming he 3bets 25% or so ace high makes up about 20% of his hands on the river assuming he always barrels the flop and turn
Ummm top 24% with all pairs over some of the Axs so like: 22+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo maybe?
I would fold the river, you can have PLENTY of hands that play this way that will always pay off so if we are calling with this hand I think we are just calling way too much.
Cool, that's comforting because I think you're really good at playing these spots from watching your videos. As played I called, and after analyzing it away the tables I felt like I made a pretty big error.