Mid/High Stakes Limit Hold'em Poker Forums

Poker Stars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1101291
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Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises, 5 folds, BTN 3-bets, 1 fold, BB caps!, Hero calls, BTN calls

Flop: (12.4 SB) 6 8 K (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, BTN calls

Turn: (7.7 BB) 7 (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, BTN folds

River: (9.7 BB) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets

Villain is 15/12 over a large sample size and is basically a weak-tight regular. Do we have a bluffing opportunity here against his probable QQ/JJ/TT?

Check behind and lose.

what hands better than TT are you hoping to fold?

He is either c/c QQ or C/R this riv

If anything, this is a super thin vbet, although its bad in this spot as the only solitary hand you are going to get value from is 99 (which he prob never has)

Flop is semi-interesting, i think calling is best given the info. Vs some more aggro lineups you can raise here.

Like if the flop was Q86r raising is much better.

Check behind and lose.

what hands better than TT are you hoping to fold?

He is either c/c QQ or C/R this riv

If anything, this is a super thin vbet

In the OP he states he is bluffing to try and get QQ, JJ and TT to fold. Getting 10:1 and having lots of Ax to rep here on the river it is a pretty tempting bluff. I think we have other hands in our range that don't have SDV (JT and QT come to mind) that we can bluff with. I've no idea if the villain in question can fold a 3rd pair here.

Flop is semi-interesting, i think calling is best given the info. Vs some more aggro lineups you can raise here.

Like if the flop was Q86r raising is much better.

Even in an aggro lineup, what kind of range do we put a big blind capping range (vs our UTG open) that gives us an equity edge on this flop? Even against a super optimistic {88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+} we are a 45% dog. Or are you proposing a raise even as a slight dog as it's a multiway pot?

I think you run into a couple problems with a bluff here - you need a multitabling TAG to make a fold on the river in a big pot, which doesn't happen that often, or you need a thinking player to make a fold when your hand doesn't make sense given the action.

From villain's POV you should be checking and losing with 55, 99, 1010, and JJ here like most posters have pointed out, and the A shouldn't improve your range, so this is either a bluff or you misplayed an earlier street. You aren't just calling with unimproved Ax hands on the flop with the btn to act behind in a capped K high rainbow pot. So, the only combos that make sense for you to have for the A to improve your hand on the river are AQ, AJ, A10 of hearts (I think the flop is a fold with these hands btw) or A8s. If your opponent isn't multitabling and has time to think, he will probably figure this out and call. If he is an ABC multitabling TAG who really isn't putting that much time into each decision he could fold his JJ or QQ here or he could be the type to just insta-call because the pot is big and he has a big pocket pair. So unfortunately, it really just depends on your opponent and the read you have on him.

In the OP he states he is bluffing to try and get QQ, JJ and TT to fold. Getting 10:1 and having lots of Ax to rep here on the river it is a pretty tempting bluff. I think we have other hands in our range that don't have SDV (JT and QT come to mind) that we can bluff with. I've no idea if the villain in question can fold a 3rd pair here.



Even in an aggro lineup, what kind of range do we put a big blind capping range (vs our UTG open) that gives us an equity edge on this flop? Even against a super optimistic {88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+} we are a 45% dog. Or are you proposing a raise even as a slight dog as it's a multiway pot?

Regarding the riv bet, I just think the range of hands we are targeting in a pot this size is way to small and our hand is too strong in a pot this size. If we somehow had like 55, this may be a better candidate from a GTO perspective, although my knowledge of GTO is limited.

When a 15/12 caps this flop and bets flop/turn and chks this riv and you have shown no strength, he is never folding and you are lighting money on fire with a riv bet imo.

Regarding flop play, its clearly a call in this spot but i mentioned id like a raise vs some laggier lineups, in bigger games (assuming a 15/12 doesnt coldcap in BB ofc) I see JTs, T9s, QJs etc often enough so raising here as a 45% fav if we can take some equity from BTN should be correct

On Q86 given there are 16 extra combos of AK we are ahead off + the possibility to take some equity from folding BTN which you would know already anyway ofc

There aren't very many combos of the hands we're targeting.

Also I think I'd consider raising the flop.

I'm not sure what's better, folding the flop or turn.

turn probably bad spot to fold considering our outs and our price

I'd check back the river expecting to lose. You just can't credibly represent many Ax hands here and it's too likely given pot size and board texture you'd be raising flop or turn with a hand like KJs, KQs. QQ-JJ won't fold and 55 and 99 won't call often enough to make it worthwhile of betting, IMO.

Rob

turn probably bad spot to fold considering our outs and our price

ah true story I didn't notice the 7... But assuming the turn was a 2, do you always fold? And if so, why are we calling this flop? Do we really think our TT is EVER good on this flop?

if he doesn't cap something like AQs, then no, we're not good ever really. I don't mind a fold right away on the flop, but I think a raise might be better than a call.

ah true story I didn't notice the 7... But assuming the turn was a 2, do you always fold? And if so, why are we calling this flop? Do we really think our TT is EVER good on this flop?

I don't think we are ever good on the flop but considering the price of 13,5 we are getting at that point I like to continue here with as little as two outs.
If turn was a 2 I'd definetly fold.

By the way just checked my DB and villiain is 15/12/1.8 with a WTSD of 34 over 4000 hands. He is usually multitabling massively and a rakeback type of player.

If 13 to 1 is enough for 2 outs, I'm not sure I'm qualified to talk to you

If 13 to 1 is enough for 2 outs, I'm not sure I'm qualified to talk to you

well, the odds of hitting my set on the turn are something like 22 to 1 iirc. however given the action i believe that the implied odds are high enough to compensate for the difference imo. otherwise this might be a leak in my game.