Now lets try the turn assuming that we decided to fold double alpha on the flop. Since fast playing the flop is very common for hero in this situation, I am assuming that we need to remove all the hands we would have raised the flop with, as well as the hands we folded, before we move on to the turn. Yay, another chance to apply alpha and attempt to simulate GTO. Lets say hero decides to c/r all 2nd pair + for value.
two pair + = (97, 44) top pair 9s = (K9, Q9, J9, T9o, 98o, 96s) 2ndpair 7s = (A7o, K7, Q7, J7, T7, 87, 76, 75)
This value range consists of 162 combinations. If we apply bluffs using alpha (1/P+3) we get 11.7%. We know that since most our draws have big equity, we can include more than alpha. Here I guestimate a good semi bluff range to include:
Oesd: 65, 86, T8
gut shot: 85 (id probably fold 85 of hearts and spades right away to a 3! because i think we should have at least something that folds right away giving our villain incentive to 3bet bluff)
flush draws up to Jx hi: T6s, J6s, J8s
This semi bluff range gives us a total of 55 combos which is .25 of our raising range. note that this is much larger than alpha .117 but most of these draws have very strong equity and it seems intuitevly that semi bluffing all these hands is a winning play. Also note that so far we have left in our Qx Kx and Ax flush draws in the check/calling range.
Now back to our turn folding decision. If we remove all the hands we folded in the previous post, and all the hands we raised on the flop, we are left with:
(A2-A6, A8 / A2s - A6s) (K5o, K6o, K8o, KTo / K2s - K6s, K8s) (Q8+bdfd, QT+bdfd, QJ+bdfd / Qd4d Qd5d Qd6d Qd8d Qc8c, QdTd QcTc) (J8, JT / Ts6s Th6h Tc6c)
(64s, 54s, 55, 33 ,22)
= 240 combinations of hands
Now our turn card comes: T
now we have 232 combinations of hands, and a new set of hands that improved to top pair.
Our villain cbets the turn giving us 4.25:1 which makes alpha = 0.19
Lets see exactly what the bottom 19% of our range, to this point, looks like:
bottom 19% = all of our Qx hi UI plus Kx hi up to K5 plus 5 combinations of K6.
This seems closer to intuitevly what I would think is correct compared to what alpha gave us on the flop. However, if someone were to ask me if peeling with A2 no draw on the turn here is correct, I would not know the right answer. Lets raise the number a little bit and see what it looks like. Since we used double alpha on the flop, lets use alpha + .5 of alpha or alpha x 1.5 which would equal .29
bottom 29% of our range: this brings our folding range up to include K8x hi UI or all our non A hi hands. Since the newly folded Kx hands only includes K8, which we are not folding because it now has an oesd, this means we are still actually folding the exact same hands as original alpha told us.
And again to do the river, I would do the same thing, remove the suggested folding hands as well as all the hands I would c/r. Then I would be left with a range that I would apply exactly alpha too (=0.14) and fold 14% of the range that I have left after taking a c/c c/c line (and using our new adjusted alpha numbers). But this also gives me a problem becauese say the river is a brick like the 4 (remember that we c/r the turn with some hands so our range now doesnt have our Tx as well as some of our draws) alpha of .14 means that we would have to call the river with K8 hi some of the time which seems somewhat suicidal.
Im hoping others can put in there input as well as point out anything wrong with my thought process or miscalculations.