Villain opens from the cutoff and we defend in the big blind in a 1/2 blind structure game. I am going to assume (not knowing if I am correct) that we should use our possible range up to this point. So if we ever 3bet in this situation, then we should take those hands out of our possible range. My arbitrary defend range this position minus hands that I arbitrarily set as a 3b range:
(22 - 55)
(A2 - A8, A2s - A6s) (K5 - KT, K2s - K9s) (Q6 - QJ, Q4s - QTs)
(J7 - JT, J6s - J9s) (T7 - T9, T6s - T8s) (96 - 98, 95s - 97s)
(86, 87, 85s - 87s, 75, 76, 65, 64s, 54s)
for clarity, the 3b range that I omitted looks like this:
66+, A9o+ A7s+, KJo+ KTs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s
Flop comes: 7 9 4
Once our villain Cbets, we are getting 5.5:1 which using alpha = 0.15
We already know that we need to fold more than 15% but lets take a look at what the bottom %15 of our range looks like:
bottom 15% = all Tx and lower UI as well as J his up to J8 UI.
On this board, most of that range consists of draws that we are certainly not folding because our opponent can not make us indifferent to continuing with draws. If we went exactly off alpha, we would only be folding J6 hi which we only have combos of suited and we arnt folding the flush draw, therefore, we would only be folding the 3 combinations of J6 that didnt have a fd.
This intuitively seems a little loose as peeling with hands such as Q5s and K2s with no draw or bd draw seems like a losing play.
Now the real question in hand is how much more (higher than alpha)
should we fold immediatelly? I have no idea what that answer is or if there is even an exact answer to it. (I am assuming there isnt). So the best we can probably do is to guestimate. Lets look at what double alpha looks like on this board. (alpha(2) = .30)
bottom 30% = all Q his UI (minus 2 combos of QJ but lets round up and include them for ease).
This seems more reasonable, as peeling with some Kx hands and folding them on the turn seems like a reasonably balanced strategy. Also, hands such as QT and QJ probably shouldnt be folded right away as they have solid top pair outs as well as good backdoor draw potential. Im gonna go out on a limb and say that folding QT and QJ without a backdoor flush draw and peeling with any combos that have bdfd potential is the final strategy I would apply (if I decided this number of double alpha is an appropriate stategy in our attempt to simulate GTO). Let me know what you think we should adjust by! I will attempt to do the turn in the next post.