At 03:30, FWF opens with A8o on the cutoff and gets 3-bet by an unknown on the button. Blinds fold, FWF calls and the flop comes 9
5
T
. I'm so tempted to peel this flop. There's reverse implied odds of course and only a back-door straight draw, but it's something like 8,5:1 on the call and the pure equity against a range like {77+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo} is still decent, though much of it comes from K high hands, which are unfortunately probably going to fire another bullet on pretty much any turn (because he will be thinking that you're going to peel lightly on this kind of flop) and you're forced to fold. Maybe fold on the flop is the right play here.
At around 04:50 you defend with 89o on the big blind against SB steal-raise and the flop comes 9
4
T
. He bets and you raise and he calls. Turn is 5
and the villain bets out. Two things: the board
here is incredibly draw-heavy and it's a blind battle. So, I actually expect the SB to bet out often with marginal to strong made hand. He might fear that you might check behind with your 78o or flush draw (or even ace high) and wants to make sure that he protects his vulnerable made hand. So I'd put him on 9x/Tx pocket pair type of hand. I think it's pretty unlikely that you'd have a hand that would fold to this turn donk so it makes it a bit more unlikely that he is just flat out bluffing or semi-bluffing.
Also, just raising to show he can't do it in this spot, what you mentioned wanting to do, is bad mainly because you don't know what he has. That's even more reason to just call-down, because then you get to see what he has. It is important to get a feel on what the villains showdown with especially in blind battles (and HUHU matches). If you raise just for the heck of it and he 3-bets, it's going to be tough one to call-down anymore.
The river is actually a tough one, because it completes all the draws and he's still betting. Even if he was semi-bluffing, he's either got there or at least to a bigger pair and I'm thinking that you can fold this river. He's an unknown, but maybe this isn't the spot to call-down. It was going to be somewhat thin call-down anyhow but with the J
on the river, I think it's a fold.
