More river value questions 15/30
5 posts, 4 voices
- xxEquinox
- Deuce High
-
66 posts
Joined 06/08
My read on villain is hes loose aggressive waits to turn to raise with anything TP+ Goes for thin value in a lot of places and I've seen him value own himself in like 4 spots in the last hour.
Full Tilt Poker $15/$30 Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Pre Flop: (1.667 SB) Hero is BB with A 
4
2 folds, SB raises, Hero calls
Flop: (4 SB) 8 
4 
9 
(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls
Turn: (4 BB) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB caps!, Hero calls
River: (12 BB) Q (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ???
Basically I'm never folding obv but if I raise and get 3bet how often am I good?
- SNOWBALL138
- Deuce High
-
8 posts
Joined 09/07
There's one unknown 4. There are nine cards that it could have as a kicker that give it a full house: 3 eights 3 nines and 3 queens. That makes nine combinations of fours full. There are 37 cards it could have as a kicker that make it a weaker trips (52 minus your 2 known hole cards minus nine cards that make it a full house minus one four minus 3 aces.) There are 3 cards it can have as a kicker that tie with you.
There are 6 highly probably combos of fullhouses (88, 99) he could have with a pocket pair, and 3 pretty unlikely ones (QQ)
He could also have JT.
To sum up, you should be against:
fours full 9/57
nines full 3/57
eights full 3/57
Queens full 2/57 (discounted from 3)
worse trips 37/57
a tie 3/57
total combos 57
equity: win: 37/57 or .649
lose: 17/57 or .298
tie: 3/57 or .052
The quota we basically want to meet is to be good about 2x as often as we are behind and get 3b. As you can see, that does appear to be the case, however we should take 2 things into account:
1. he may have JT
2. he isn't always opening every single four
number 2 cuts both ways though because if we discount 23o we should also discount 84o and 94o.
This makes it close, but I think there's a semi decent chance that he might 3b a worse four often enough for us to not really sweat it, and just put in the raise and then snapcall down. If the river was both a straight and a flush I could see just calling.
- gusorama
- Pair of Deuces
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200 posts
Joined 01/08
i raise / call this river. it seems to be a brick but maybe completes his Q9 of :clubs: to top2 
or JT:clubs: to the straight 
... trips with tk are the nutz that often ... i think you have to raise it ... at least if your read is correct i think hes value raisin and bettin very thin in SB vs BB situation.
would be interesting to see what he had.
- MickeyWins
- Quad Deuces
-
1520 posts
Joined 07/07
This is a good illustration of "bets mean things" and that meaning is changed by who is doing the betting.
If I am villain you can fold river, you are beat.
But you seem to have a good read on this guy, he "value bets" thin,
value towns himself etc...
But even the poker insane might realize you have a 4 at some point.
defining that point is how far you go with the bets here.
he has 88,99,JcTc, or air(8x,9x..some PP)
lots and lots of air we are assuming....
I think what happened here is,
you went several more bets on the river,
and villain showed you a monster and you questioned your read.
I DONT QUESTION YOUR READ
self doubt can be deadly..
How ever many bets you did go,
I think you did it right.
NH, sorry you lost it.
- xxEquinox
- Deuce High
-
66 posts
Joined 06/08
Mickey I just called the river and he showed me a 9. Basically I chickened out on the river and was wondering you if you had this read do you go 3bets on the river?