30/60 value bet this river? Page 1 of 2
No real reads on Villain except I saw him donk river with missed straight draw when 3flush hit.
Full Tilt Poker $30/$60 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BTN with K
K
1 fold, MP raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, MP calls
Flop: (7.5 SB) 4
8
5
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls
Turn: (4.75 BB) A
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls
River: (6.75 BB) 6
(2 players)
MP checks, Hero ???
Also do you fold if you get check raise on the turn?
How about checking behind on the turn. You would avoid having to deal with a check raise, this player has already shown he is capable of bluffing. Also if villain does not have an ace he may well fold the turn anyway. Then on the river villain may well bet out either with an ace or trying to represent an ace and you call.
i check behind on the river. dont know if he calls the turn without an ace - if he just picked up the flushdraw on the turn he will fold to a riverbet. i dont check the turn because he could raise a lot of hands without an ace so i bet and hope he folds.
if i got c/r on the turn i think i would pay him of... im not a friend of giving up to a single overcard.
i dont check the turn because he could raise a lot of hands without an ace so i bet and hope he folds.
You don't want him to fold worse hands, but thats what he is likely to do on the turn, this is why I like checking the turn and hoping he will bet his full range on the river. On the turn I think most of the time we are going to be in a WA/WB situation, so I don't mind giving villain a free card, especially if he will then bet the river with hands that we beat as well as top pair hands.
bet bet bet
I think you need to bet the turn.
I am interested in what villain calls the turn with.
A FD? thats all I see, anything else?
maybe 66 77
if thats his entire range, we have no bet on the river, he wont call.
he will raise with his set. straight.
what else is still in the house?
Ax slowplayed on turn.
I still check behind on river.
regarding the turn: xrosswind is the only one making sense. If his range for calling our turn bet is so narrow where is the value? If there isn't enough value what's the harm in checking? The ace already hit, there are no more scare cards that can come on the end when we have KK, the pot is not that large, its heads up and we are in position. Pretty easy turn check in my opinion, though if you know villain better betting every street for value can't be that bad either. But if I did that, I certainly wouldn't be hoping villain folded to my turn bet! Betting when you are not bluffing hoping the villain will fold is pretty silly.
-DeathDonkey
I ended up checking the river and he showed 22. So I took a note and I guess just value bet thiner against this guy. Either way I see why checking the turn is good that way I can call a river bet if he decides to bluff at it or value bet worse. This is good because I'll only ever have to put 1 bet in to get to showdown and not 3.
regarding the turn: xrosswind is the only one making sense. If his range for calling our turn bet is so narrow where is the value? If there isn't enough value what's the harm in checking? The ace already hit, there are no more scare cards that can come on the end when we have KK, the pot is not that large, its heads up and we are in position. Pretty easy turn check in my opinion, though if you know villain better betting every street for value can't be that bad either. But if I did that, I certainly wouldn't be hoping villain folded to my turn bet! Betting when you are not bluffing hoping the villain will fold is pretty silly.
-DeathDonkey
I agree. DD, I am having much trouble with "the non-logical" part of villains range.
in all hands, not just this one.
as in this hand, villain has 22, it kinda makes sense, in that he calls beating AK type hands,
and any pair is a big hand to some.
Is that how I handle it?
1st figre out what is logical to me,
then what is logical if we stretch it some..
then what is logical to the slightly nuts?
I mean, I suggest betting the turn here as its brave to not fear the ace,
which when giving the actual hands is correct.
But does not make sense given my thoughts on a logical turn calling range.
please help.
Mickey it seems to me that the only problem you have is you say "I have the best hand" and then conclude "therefore I bet" and you aren't totally considering that it only matters how often you have the best hand when he calls your bet. Often times at higher stakes the way to get "value" is by saying "I have the best hand a lot here, but its not strong enough to get called by anything I beat, sure he'll probably fold 75% of the time here but if I check he might bluff 100% of the time and that's way better!".
-DeathDonkey
if you bet the turn you should bet/fold because we are getting the wrong effective odds. He should play and have an ace like this more than 4/5 times we do get checkraised vs the number of flushdraws available.
However I think not betting the turn is probably best like others said. He didn't cr flop so we can discount a lot of lower pocket pairs at least somewhat, so we aren't missing 2 streets of value THAT often by checking.
Also, there should be a lot of combos of hands like T9 J9 QT KJ that are not drawing dead against you that you can either allow to catch a pair on the river or might induce a bluff from. Also, if you bet you may induce a fold from a lower pocket pair which would suck.
I don't like to check this hand on the turn all of the time though because it polarizes our range strongly to TP or trash hands when we actually do bet the turn.
Against an unknown I just valuecheck turn. Good spot imo. He peels wide on the flop but now he has to fold QJ, J9 etc etc. If we check we can get a bet out of those. Checkking also prevents bet/folding or bet/calling which both sucks.
As played I think you have the best hand tos on the river. Rivered straights would often donk and Ax would often c/r turn. Flopped sets and two pairs are also out of the question. So he looks like som marginal hand like 98s, T8s, K8s, K6s or whatever. I dont think it would be bad if he shows down weaker pairs here but a lot of players will just convince themselves to fold. So I doubt you have that much value.
It makes sense to me to check the turn now.
And it does seem easy to see once you realize it.
but you know me, I still got a question.
if we make hero's hand QQ, and the turn card a K.
is it the same situation?
if so....does JJ..Q turn ..etc...
how much or many, overcards to our hand should we protect from?
I hope thats clear.
OP, you said you made a note that he had 22 so you should value bet thinner, but 22 is one of the worst hands he can have on that board and with this sequence, so who's to say he's not savy enough to fold the river?
Also, while I am having a hard time deciding what hands the HJ should continue with here (that didn't also kr the flop), I'm not sold that checking the turn is the best play for BTN. I suspect that the optimal strategy for the entire hand would definitely include a larger value-bet region than just top pair here. Perhaps the HJ should have a tough decision with K-hi, or at least be peeling the turn intending to fold the river in order to induce bluffs. How does checking behind with all other pairs besides Ax effect HJ's decision to bluff us later? I suppose he still has a few better hands he can force to fold (like Q hi or J hi) if he has a weak draw, but he can definitely give up if we call.
OK my head hurts now from so much abstract thinking.
