I thought this was an interesting hand to discuss. Villain is a winning TAG at this level - thoughts on river play and anything else about the hand?

-DeathDonkey

Poker Stars $30/$60 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises, 4 folds, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (7.5 SB) Q J 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls

Turn: (5.75 BB) K (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls

River: (7.75 BB) A (2 players)

I am not trying to be flippant.

I will look at this hand more later but,
at first glance.

I dont think you have to worry about what to do on the river.
you can just muck, you are beat.

Unless ofcourse its the guy pokerbob always plays in spots like this,
in which case you can bet/3 bet cause villain has 33.

We really dont beat much imo

Havent played FR for a while, but i imagine his range to be

9's+
KQs+
AQo+

AJ makes sense on the turn as does AK (i think some TAGs are hesitant to raise AK on this turn given the board texture) and 10's.

I cant think of a hand we beat, i dont think he sees the river with 99 or less.

I think this is between and c/f and c/c. I dont see any value in betting, he isnt folding AJ or AQ, AK and he isnt calling with a missed FD but i cant see any in his range as they would all be broadways imo.

With a decent read and if im playing well i could c/f this.

Before I give my thoughts I thought of some more questions, so that we can truly analyze this poker situation:

Ignoring my potentially bad turn play and just concentrating on the river, what if I had AJ instead? AQ? AK? What is the worst hand I should bet for value on the river? What is the best hand I should check/fold?

-DeathDonkey

Its tough to say DD because of the way those hands would have played pf, flop and turn. Btw, do you like a turn c/r? I like.

AK i like just calling the 3bet pf vs an abc tag, depending on the current dynamic you have going, history etc. Just calling allows you to open QJs, KJs, 109s, 77 etc UTG now that CO realises that when he 3bets and you just call you may have hands like AA, AK etc in your range. Not sure whether that theory is correct, i just feel like alwasy capping your premium hands is like almost turning your hand face up to a good thinking TAG.

AJ i think u may muck UTG depending on the table although i think a pfr is fine.

Anyway, all things being equal:

AJ is the same as KQ imo. Im scrapping KQ from his range due to the turn action. AQ isnt much better either. It beats AJ which is a possible hand given the flop/turn action. Dont know if he 3bets this pf although i imagine he views you as too Laggy pf.

AK i can bet the river, we have top 2 and we beat AQ, AJ and chop AK.

Lets put villain on a (broad)range of hands after he calls the flop c/r

10's, AJs, KQ, KJs, AQ, AK, QJs, AA

Given the action, the only hands i can put him on by the river is:

AQ (that waited till the turn but got scared- unlikely)
AJs
10's
AK (not an easy turn raise given texture)
AA (the same, he doesnt beat much on the turn)

I feel he has AA, AK or 10's here always. Therefore I dont valuebet AQ here or AJ but i will bet AK. The other issue is that when we check to him on the river and he bets, his range will either be very strong or very weak. Its hard for me to imagine him getting to the river here with a weak hand given the action and board texture.

The other issue is, if we check to him on the river and he bets, we are almost always losing with AJ, KQ and often AQ.

He wont be betting KJ, KQ, AJ and maybe not AQ even on this river. Given the action, you have a strong hand that wants to see a SD cheap or some stupid flush draw that isnt calling imo. He bets, AK, AA, 10's and maybe AQ on the river imo, and thats it. None of those we beat with KQ, AJ or AQ.

I still think this river is a c/f. I see no value in betting, unless we think he can fold AJ, or AQ which he wont for 1BB and there is def no value in a bet.

Grantkropf, did you notice this game is nine handed not six handed. DD has raised UTG in a 9 handed game, that means he has a very small range. A winning TAG (who I am sure knows DD) has three bet in the CO. I think the range you have given above is much too wide.

lol. I did think this was 6 handed, ignore what I said.

I think people should definately be considering AA to make up a decent part of villains range fwiw

wouldn't a TAG, 3 bet AA on the flop?

Id wait for the turn with position vs a player who will usually always bet the turn

I'd say most of his 3betting range has us beat, but by river I'd check call just because the pot is large enough.

Check/fold is probably a good option too but I think you can sacrifice the pot to KJ and QJ sometimes, not a good idea.

I may be wrong, i just dont think a TAG bets the river with 2 pair like QJ or KJ that he would prob like to SD cheaply. I cant see him thinking- Hero has KQ or AJ exactly here and will c/f if i bet. Hero is almost always showing down here given the action and board texture so its unlikely (imo) that Villain thinks he has any chance of folding us on the river, therfore I think he only bets with his strongest range.

Also you prob would have heard from KJ on the turn and im not sure QJ (or KJ for that matter) 3bet pf.