Beating Different limits FTP Page 1 of 2
For the last couple of months I've been a winning tournament player and a marginal losing player at 2/4 3/6 limit usually depending on how I ran. After having a nice score in an mtt I found what looked like a very soft 30/60 game and sat down debating whether or not to play when a friend saw me and dared me to play an orbit while I was under rolled I decided I can always reload posted my blind and gave myself a 1k stop loss. so after playing for 2 hours I came out +900 winner with only one really tricky spot and it felt to me the game was easier than 3/6 (I know what the hell??). so anyway after playing all this week doing almost nothing but playing poker I've come out up almost 3K. Now heres where things get a little weird. From Holdem Manager I'll show you how I was doing at each limit.
Game Type Description Hands $ bb/100
$1/2 1230 +$14.25 1.16
$2/4 282 -$148.50 -26.33
$3/6 722 -$390.00 -18.01
$5/10 225 +$289.00 25.69
$8/16 162 +$156.50 12.08
$10/20 224 -$652.50 -29.13
$15/30 250 +$305.50 8.15
$30/60 607 +$3345.00 18.37
I admit I ran pretty bad in 10/20 when I lost most of that but overall even when playing I feel 30/60 is the easiest. Can anyone else who plays these limits regularly explain this. Is this just varience of LHE? Why was I getting crushed at 3/6 and crushing at 30/60 over about the same sample size.
Also for each of you guys who play these limits what are your best/worst limits and which limit do you think is easiest?
Unfortunately the amount of hands you have played at each limit are far too small for your results to have any meaning at all. I am sure it's possible to find the odd $30/60 game that playes easier than a tyical $3/6 game, but it's not going to be usually the case. An average 30/60 player is going to be a lot better than an average 3/6 player.
You have less than 1000 hands at 30/60 and you have ran fantastically well at that limit, if I was you I would bank that money and carry on grinding at 2/4 and 3/6, learn to beat those limits over a large number of hands and then move on up.
Even the very best players have regular down swings of 150 to 200 BB, and bigger down swings also happen fairly often. You need a bank roll big enough so that when you have these down swings it does not affect the way you play.
I admit I ran pretty bad in 10/20 when I lost most of that but overall even when playing I feel 30/60 is the easiest. Can anyone else who plays these limits regularly explain this.
It felt easiest because you ran so well.
I've been trying not to play 30/60 because I'm not rolled for it and can't take a downswing but I really have no problems playing against these players. I think my main problem with 3/6 is I outlevel myself and while I don't come even close to playing perfectly assuming I'm running average if I had the roll I would never stop playing 30/60. I do game select when I play and I think thats pretty important. I usually look for a bad player and only sit down if I have good table position I'll play 100 hands and when the fish goes busto I leave. In all honestly I don't know where these people get money because they're play is terrible. Also I agree the average 30/60 player is better than the average 3/6 player but I actually think that helps me because they play fairly predictable and given reads are very exploitable. If anyone DC member plays limit and is rolled for 30/60 I highly recommend you play it as much as possible because if you are a good player the games are definitely +EV.
I did run good but regardless of that my friend who does have the roll for this plays 30/60 and 50/100 almost every day and is a consistent winner and he himself says that they are all terrible. I think most of you would agree if you saw some of these hands.
There's another thing about taking shots like this, ie. way out of limits of your bankroll. The thing is that we know from bankroll theory that if you go beyond Kelly betting, taking a "bet" like this (where bet is the shot) actually affects negatively to the growth of your bankroll. (Full Kelly betting means that you would be maximizing the growth of your bankroll.)
So let's say optimistically that your winrate is 2BB/100 in a 30/60 game. If your bankroll is below around 200BBs, or $12k, it means you're beyond Kelly betting. Even half-Kelly is considered extremely aggressive and with these parameters (assuming 20BB/100 std dev and the winrate we've given) is 400BB.
So a rational player declines these kind of shots not because he's afraid of the higher limits, but because it affects negatively to the growth of his bankroll. This is because large hits in the bankroll, even if they're controlled with a stop-loss, have such a negative impact on the future growth.
The sample size is too small, but I think you know that.
Take out the 30/60 and you are losing.
You should be playing 1/2 and 2/4, and mostly 1/2 if you ask me.
Bankroll management, as Jaj points out is CRUCIAL to your survival.
Lots of the players posting here are 2/4 type players.
But I have no doubt they could hold their own at higher limits,
and if running well, could book a nice win.
But the short run doesnt tell you much,
this is true in most things in life.
If you wanna jump around, all over the limits, trying to find the best game,
I dont have a problem with that.
But you need two things to make that work LONG TERM...
1) Strength of play
2) Bankroll
which of these have you conquered?
Thanks for all the comments guys I will be staying away from 30/60 unless I can find the best game imaginable. I think one of the main reasons I was even taking a shot is because I have the option to reload.
I will be playing 5/10 from now on and I have an 800bb bankroll now, I think this is reasonable. Thoughts?
You obviously ran good at 30/60. I haven't played 30/60, but if you table select well it probably is about the same as 10/20 or maybe even 5/10. But your sample is tiny so you should ask yourself how good is your overall skill. Maybe the best answer is just to open up DD's relentless assault series (or any other LHE series) and see how well you follow (and predict) DD's actions.
Let's say now your roll is 3k. With 500BB, you will be rolled for 3/6 (assuming you move down if you lose say 200BB). From my view, your decision is do you want to grind up from 3/6? Or do you want to try to play the game you think you beat, run up a bigger roll but with a significant risk of losing a huge chunk of your roll? If you lose significantly, what are you going to do? (Add money to your poker budget? Move down? Quit?)
Anyways, you're not pro so how you manage your BR is really your own choice. Just understand what people say makes lots of sense and the consequence no matter which path you choose.
yah well my roll is 8K right now so I think I'm going to play between 5/10 and 15/30 If I run bad I can move down and/or reload either way lately it's jst felt like a freeroll to me because I've already withdrawn a lot more than my initial deposit. I'd like to think I'm good enough to play and wish I could go over my sessions with DD or one of the limit coaches without actually having it be like coaching.
I'd like to think I'm good enough to play and wish I could go over my sessions with DD or one of the limit coaches without actually having it be like coaching.
I don't know what the coaches here charge for a couple of hours ($200 to $400 probably), thats not much out of a $8000 BR, and it would probably be money well spent.
If you don't want to spend the money, make a video of you playing $30/60 or whatever limit you choose and post it in the members videos section. I'm not good enough to know if you could beat $30/60 long term, but I'm sure there are plenty of members here who can tell you.
Another suggestion is watch any of DD's videos, listen to his comments and see if you have similar thoughts and would make similar plays, not on the straight forward hands where anyone with a little bit of poker knowledge would know what to do, but listen to how he thinks about the complicated situations.
I do think I will get DD as a coach in the near future in the meantime when I see a soft game I can't resist.
As for making a video thats a great idea I think I will do just that.
Here are my updated stats for 30/60 I'm def balancing out and not running nearly as good but I'm still winning.
Game Type Description Hands $ bb/100 WTSD% W$SD%
$30/60 1227 +$4218.50 11.46 39.2 53.6
note my W$SD% was around 70 when I made the original post
also weird side note I haven't had AA in 30/60 since original post.
I do think I will get DD as a coach in the near future in the meantime when I see a soft game I can't resist.
I don't think you will regret it. If I ever considered playing the high stakes I would definitely hire him or one of the other excellent coaches on this site.
As for making a video thats a great idea I think I will do just that.
I'm sure a lot of the limit players on this site will take a look at it for you and make some constructive comments.
Here are my updated stats for 30/60 I'm def balancing out and not running nearly as good but I'm still winning.
If you game select really well then that should help you a lot, I hope you continue to beat this game.
xxEquinox, I'm truly glad its going well for you in those 30/60 sessions, but all I can really say to you is a dose of reality about sample size. When I play 4 tables of 30/60 on Stars my typical session is somewhere from 800-2000 hands (so basically on average more than your entire sample), in I'm guessing 50k hands or so at that limit I've had multiple 200 BB downswings, at least one mid session that I knew was bad but didn't know how bad due to Tiltblocker. Basically what I'm saying is your results so far in that game are +70 bets in 1230 hands, if I logged on right now and played 1230 hands of 30/60 I would expect to swing up or down 70 bets at least once, its a super aggro game with a small edge and you are showing a huge lack of respect for the variance of poker.
Hell I just got home from a LIVE 100/200 mix game where mid session I had a 16k downswing and my friend won 22k in the game, in 12 hours of play (so what, like 500 hands maximum?).
-DeathDonkey
Just play 5/10. Trust me...
Thanks for the Kelly reference Jaj. I just read about it a bit, induced by your post. Do you have any reference to a Kelly article specific to LHE?
