April 18, 2012
I'm not really sure how this is going to go. This is my first time doing this so I'm just going to give it a try and see what I come up with. My plan is to look at reads I have, stats, and hands that went to showdown. Write down what I see, some estimations on ranges, and then some possible ways to alter my strategy against specific villain. This might be an unorganized mess, but here goes.
I'm just going to start with the villain I have the most hands on. I have 12.1k hands on this villain from stakes ranging from 50-200NL. Some general reads are that he is a 20/16 TAG. Straight forward for the most part. Does not 3bet aggressively. 5% overall.
Notes from showdowns: Bluff-raise T52r IP in 3b pot and continue turn w picked up FD. Bet OOP on 666 turn 8 w JT against check back OTB. 3bets polarized IP. Cbet small 3-way w 98 on K92r. Bets small OTR for thin value? 4bets bigger as a bluff? 3bet range seems fairly static OOP. JJ+, AK. Likes to slow-play in 3b pots. Bet twice in 3bet pot IP w air on K74r and give up river. Flat 3b OTB w T9s, Ch back A88hh flop, Bet heart turn and brick river as a bluff. Cbets slightly bigger than 1/2 pot w air in 3bet pots? Will iso-raise as wide as K4s, 85s OTB. TIght squeezing range JJ+, AK. Most often seems to be one and done IP, occasionally firing two, but very rarely firing 3. Ch/c 44 as PFR on 567hh. Ch/c AJo on QJ9r. 3bet depolarized OOP. Hands like 99 and QJs as stacks get deeper. Not aggressively barreling. Ch back 98s on Q87hh OTB. Cbet A6o on J95r OTB. Bet turn OOP w AJ on T653.
Preflop Ranges: 11% UTG - 55+, AJo+ ATs+ KTs+, QTs+, JTs, KQo
13% MP - 22+, AJo+, ATs+ KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s
25% CO - 22+, A2s+, A9o+, broadways, SC's, better suited gappers
48% BTN - too lazy to write this out. Anything reasonable.
26% SB - Same as CO
Some stats: WTSD 23%, WWSF 42%, Agg factor 3.05, cbet 72, turn cbet 49, fold to cbet 59. SB reraise steal 8.4%, BB reraise steal 3.8%. 4B 7%, 4B range 1.1%. Fold to 4bet 22%. Fold to 3b 61%. By position EP 31%, MP 48%, CO 62%, BTN 70%, SB 55%. Fold to cbet in 3b pots 63%. Bet OOP 38%. River agg freg 26%.
SB vs. Steal - Fold 89%, 3b 8%, call 3%
BB vs. Steal - Fold 82%, Call 14%, 3b 4%
Some quick conclusions for now. I'll look at this again later as I spent the last two hours looking through my HUD and so I'm somewhat tired:
I can get away with stealing pretty wide as he will play tightly in the blinds. I will just give his 3bets from the BB a lot of respect, but I can call some hands IP against his wider SB 3bet range. I don't want to 4bet him very often since he has a low fold to 4bet. Pay attention to his cbet sizing in 3b pots and also watch for his 4bet size being bigger as a bluff. I can attack his CO and BTN ranges pretty aggressively since he will fold a lot to 3b in these positions and also fold too much to cbets. I will only very sparingly 3b his EP ranges since they are tight and he does not fold often to 3bets. Give him credit when he squeezes
Postflop, I can bluff-catch one street and usually give up against later aggression, since he will most often just be one and done. Give his 3 barrels respect as he seems to very rarely fire 3 streets as a bluff. I can also bet 3 streets IP against his checks as PFR to see if he is willing to call me down w middle pair type hands.
This is all I have for now, but as I said I will look at this again and let the info absorb and see if I can think of any other ways to exploit this villain. As always, any help with this is appreciated. I basically just winged this and wasn't sure all the stats and filters I should use, etc. Props if you made it to the end of this post.
Edit: I forgot to add in that I think I can attack his iso-raises fairly aggressively by 3betting as well because he doesn't seem to adjust.