WiltOnTilt's PlusEVPoker.com Blog

I want to make it clear from the start of this blog entry that it's a conversation I'm having with myself as much as it's a call to action for the readers. There's no high horse here.

Braaaaaaainnssss... BBBBRRRrraaaaaiiiinnsssss

Many of us are poker zombies these days. We want brains to feed ourselves some inside scoop as to what the hell has happened to the game we love (or love to hate) that puts food on our table or beer in our mug or hell, just gives us something to do when there's nothing else going on.

Everyone is so hungry for information that it's easy to fall victim to the latest gossip and turn our brains off to objectivity and rationality. I've been contacted by many either by AIM/Skype/DC forums/PM, you name it, and most (like me) just want something. The latest gossip, news, assurance, hope, misery (loves company!), you name it. I've tried to be there for everyone and for myself. I want answers. No one seems to have them.

Naturally, we turn to those who have some sort of standing in the poker world. Maybe they are your favorite nosebleed tweet-er, maybe they own a training site, maybe they just make baller ass videos (hey ohh!), or maybe they just always seem to have their nose in the latest scandal. Regardless, we look to these people because we respect their opinions on other things, so they probably know something we don't about this latest fiasco.

There's some logic to that. Many of these people are well connected...but PLEASE be careful. Now more than ever it's important to try to distance yourself a little and think about what is going on and the effect it has on your life and situation. There is a lot of hidden risk here. There is risk in taking action, but there is also risk with inaction. Think about that. There was a bit of a time window where as the news broke, you might have been able to transfer your money out or sneak that last withdraw submission in and more. Was your first instinct to think about what the highest EV move was or were you too caught up thinking "OMG who is on my aim list I can contact to ask wtf I should do". I was in the second group. My goal moving forward is to try to foresee and recognize these critical time sensitive moments and seize them in the best way possible (even if it means, deciding to sit on my hands and do nothing).

Conflicting Information:

There is so much conflicting info out there right now, it's hard to know who to trust. In cases like this, IMHO, the best person to trust is yourself.

Here are some examples:

"Online poker legalization 'Inevitable'": http://www.mediaite.com/tv/dan-abrams-predicts-legalization-of-online-gambling-inevitable-on-gma/

"GOP stands firm on web gambling ban" and "Frank's bill to legalize gambling a dead letter": http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/156851-gop-standing-firm-on-internet-gambling-ban

Or how about the sponsored pro that suggests that your money on a certain website (that he is sponsored on) is worth some 93c on the dollar? How does he know this, does he have inside info? Why is he the only one making these predictions and not those at the top of his company?  Why aren't other sponsored pros from other companies saying similar things? For those of you pokersense followers, surely you might recognize some biases going on (even if he is right)

Compare that to this guy who says "there's no way they (the players) are getting their money back" at 2m 30s
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4650384/online-gaming-may-be-legalized-again

There's also some conflict with some big names saying certain sites that have dirt on them are by far the riskiest to have your account balance on. Maybe they are right, but again, based on what? The logic follows that these websites with a bad rap have that bad rap for a reason. They've been involved in some shady bullshit therefore they are more inclined to be shady now. Ok, I can buy it, but there's also the other side of that coin where they are professional liars and cheats and crooks. How can we be so sure that THIS is the time they will get nailed. They've gotten away with it this long, no ? I'm not defending anyone, I'm just trying to get you guys to see there is always another angle.

Speculation:

Here are some of my favorites I've heard. I'm sure some of the more subtly ridiculous stuff has already escaped my brain:

-There has also been some interesting/wild speculation that Harrahs is actually behind all of this. The thing to remember about this type of speculation is that most inside info won't come with a source, so how much can you really trust it?

-Harrahs will have a poker site up in 3 months!

-The government is just trying to pay down the $14 trillion with $3 billion in fines (lol)

-It's best to just sit and wait! No it's best to try to get your $ out!

-Well known 2+2'er thinks there will NEVER be US based online poker

-The websites have plenty of money to pay off the $3billion in fines!

-The websites can't possibly sustain that kind of hit to their bottom line, they will surely fold

...and so many more... almost certainly baseless claims or at best some hearsay from someone else making mostly baseless claims.

Blame Game:

Then you have guys randomly placing blame and arguing about who is the biggest asshole in this whole mess. Republicans? Democrats? The PPA ? The players? The sites? I dunno IMO they are all pretty smelly body parts in one way or another. At least the PPA warned us about the lack of the status quo for years, and generally speaking not enough of the players listened. Everyone else on the list is definitely an asshole in one way or another so let's just skip the blame game. What's even worse than the blame game? The guy who does the blaming with inaccurate information. Please don't be that guy.

Opportunities:

Some of the quick thinkers thought of buying up some party poker stock when this news broke. It went up 30% on monday. I wish I would have had that sort of forethought. That is the exact type of logical forward thinking that was totally clouded by my OMGWTF human instinct. Congrats if you were one of the guys that got in on that. Try to be on the look out for the next opportunity instead of wallowing in misfortune.

Defend Yourself:

The best defense against all of this is just to try to stay as objective as possible as to what is the best move for you. We surround ourselves with a game of mitigating risks and now we're right in the thick of it. Please realize that in a situation where we are all mostly in the dark. In cases like this, just because I know how to anticipate a river checkraise bluff doesn't make me more equipped to know whether or not the Department of Injustice is going to take your bankroll and spend it on all-you-can-eat Dunkin Donuts. Same goes for others with more poker e-cred than I have.

There are other sites which take US players now. It's a risk to play and it's a risk not to play. What should you do? It depends on your situation and how much the other money that is locked up means to you, and what losing more would mean. There are some serious bankroll and life EV calculations you need to work out in your head to make the best decision for you.

Many have asked for what my take is or what my plan is. My plan is to basically be proactive where it makes sense to be and be reactive where it makes sense to me. Sorry for the lack of spoon feeding but if you've seen my videos, you know that's how I roll.