March 13, 2012
13/03/12 - Continuing to Lose at 2NL
13/03/12 - Duration: 2:45 893 Hands
Net Won/Lost: -$2.56, -14.61 /100
In some quick updates, I've continued to grind away and just haven't been posting. I was getting crushed and my roll was looking pretty thin. There's been discussion about rake rates and it made me reconsider my move to Paddy Power. My rakeback deal was conditional on a certain amount of rake generated in a monthly window - which was unattainable at uNL. So I've moved to Stars, which is good as the software is great and the 2012 rake changes (controversial to many) were a bit of an improvement for the uNL types at 2c/4c and the like.
My database has swelled to just below 20k of hands. My winrate over this period is some negative, and I'm down a few buy ins after all that play.
I'd be more negative about it but it's standard, really, and all I can do is keep chugging on. To the hand analysis!
Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1682019
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BTN: $1.97 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 81
SB: $2.01 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 11
BB: $2.56 - VPIP: 51, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 41
Hero (UTG): $2.45 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 4228
MP: $2.00 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 12
CO: $1.58 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with K
K
Hero raises to $0.06, MP calls $0.06, CO calls $0.06, BTN calls $0.06, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04
Flop: ($0.36) 8
4
5
(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.28, MP folds, CO raises to $1.52, BTN folds, SB folds, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $2.11 all in
Turn: ($6.66) 2
(3 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($6.66) 3
(3 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $6.66
BB shows 5
5
Hero shows K
K
CO shows Q
8
BB wins $4.75
(Rake: $0.23)
I probably stacked off to light here with KK. It's a spot where I will be prone to doing it so I need to be more cautious. As such, I'm going to bust up the ranges and get this situation sorted.
Preflop and the Cbet for value are standard, I think.
Now, the initial shove is from a player playing 30/0 over a small sample. I don't know much about them though as it's a tiny frequency, but they seem to be a bit loose. If he shipped, everyone else folded, I could call happily. The trouble spot is the extra-shove coming from a 51/5 over a short sample - who had shown loose/passive tendancies.
I would assume he would raise (versus a huge field) with QQ+. So they are out of his range, though he would play those a similar way if he'd seen the flop with them.
Right, so, the pot offers me odds of 2.16:1. This means I have a required equity of just under 33%.
If the villain shoves his sets, straights, and overpairs (99-JJ) then I am 41% against his range and it's a +EV call. However, it depends on the read of the villain and how he will play certain combinations of his range. If the villain only ever shoves his sets and straights here then the call is burning money. If he shoves something like JJ only then the call is still -EV, but if I assume he shoves JJ here then he probably shoves TT here too - which would make the call marginally +EV. It's a tough spot, really. If I call with KK then I also catch him the times he spazzes out with hands like 87, which adds to my EV even if he doens't do it all the time. One for the forum, really...
But here, in this analysis, if I can assume the villain shoves 12 combos of PPs higher then the board then the call becomes +EV. If they don't, then it's a snap-fold. It's a read-dependant spot. Agaisnt a NIT I'm always out, but against a LAGfish then I'm happy to get it in.
Poker Stars $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1682020
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
UTG: $1.65 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 1.2, Hands: 81
CO: $1.45 - VPIP: 51, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.9, Hands: 41
Hero (BTN): $3.93 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 2.0, Hands: 4228
SB: $2.03 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 12
BB: $1.60 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10
Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with A
K
1 fold, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, CO calls $0.06
Flop: ($0.19) 7
K
3
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.14, CO calls $0.14
Turn: ($0.47) 7
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.34, CO calls $0.34
River: ($1.15) 5
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.92, CO calls $0.89 all in
Final Pot: $2.93
CO shows K
7
Hero shows A
K
CO wins $2.83
(Rake: $0.07)
Right, here we go again...
Preflop iso-raise is super standard. So is cbetting the flop and turn.
My bet-sizing on earlier streets was geared to setting up easy-shove scenarios on many river cards. The 5 is a blank as it gets, really.
The villain is a weaker player with demonstrating calling tendancies. As such, I can rely on him to call here with a weaker range of Kx hands then the average villain.
His range for calling is comprised of Kx hands, K7, 76s, 87s and 33. It's defining the width of the Kx range that determines the profitability of the shove. If the villain calls with only KQ and KJ, then the shove is still +EV.
However, can I not assume this villain is weak enough to call with the likes of KT or K9 at least some percentage of the time? I mean, he's hardly a tight caller. Well, that's the read-dependant part, but I think in this spot the shove was definately +EV.
--
You know, I had more hands listed here. I had some definately -EV plays that when I revisted them I was like, "What the fuck are you doing?" I've ceased to review them in note-form as they are nothing close to marginal, they are just plain bad.
A real leak of mine is not viewing things for what they are. People are very clearly defining their ranges at these stakes by not being aggressive enough with a wide range - so when they show aggression I should be in a good position to play as best as I can in EV terms.
It's disappointing that I keep making these mistakes. Simple stuff, really: Over-aggressive with marginal hands and assuming fold equity against weaker players - things you read about in strategy posts on 2+2. It's the leak that's really holding me back. I'm just burning money.
So, in summary, I learned today that I am still a losing 2NL player. I am often too loose calling in situations and generally try to exploit the thinnest equity advantages that come from semi-bluffing that just runs me right into the nuts. I need to reign it in a little and avoid situations that will screw me over. I read recently that good advice is to avoid situations with thin equity advantages if you know they will lead you to tougher spots down the line where you will mistakes. Wise words.
