Stairway to RailHeaven

Hey guys,

sorry for having let you waiting quite some time for the new blog entry. For some reason NL10 hasn´t been as easy-going as NL5 so far, my sweetie struggles a bit. Part of it is actually running bad for a good portion, the other part is a mixture of missed value and "non-believing" (= calling too much). :D

OK, as always, let´s get into some hands, covering the above-mentioned mixture of calling too much / not value-betting enough:

Hand #1

Villain was a huge fish with a VPIP of significantly > 50%.

SB: $10.00
Hero (BB): $15.38
UTG: $18.45
MP: $12.12
CO: $9.80
BTN: $23.25

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with J K
3 folds, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.30) T T J(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, BTN folds, SB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.70) 9(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, SB raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($3.10) Q(2 players)
SB bets $2.90, Hero calls $2.90

This hand pretty well illustrates what I mean with "non-believing". Although Villain is super-loose player that doesn´t mean that he can´t hit a huge hand. And by him c/c the flop he pretty much tells us that he has some hand =/= air. So, what non-air-type hand c/r the turn? We´re crushed. Period. Even the 4 outs to our gs aren´t clean, so there´s essentially no different decision than folding. It sucks if we see fish sitting on 4 buy-ins and taking another pot from us - but it doesn´t help. ;)

Hand #2

Again, Villain was a bad player, loose preflop, semi-aggressive postflop.

SB: $32.89
BB: $10.10
UTG: $19.72
CO: $10.15
Hero (BTN): $10.30

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with J A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) Q T 3(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.70) K(2 players)
SB bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

River: ($1.50) 6(2 players)
SB bets $3, Hero calls $3

The turn is a very clear illustration of missed valuebetting - and a huge mistake. We turn the nuts against a range that is most likely either air-heavy or good enough to pay big time. By flatting we gain nothing. There´s almost no rivercard that improves Villain to a worse 2nd-best hand (making him inclined to pay off in case he intended to b/f the turn) but there are tons of cards either crushing us / killing action or split the pot. So, the turn is a crystal-clear value-raise and flatting is a giant mistake.

Hand #3

You guess it - Villain was a fish, pretty active on flop / turn, more honestly on the river. :D

Hero (UTG): $10.00
MP: $10.26
CO: $3.55
BTN: $14.13
SB: $11.79
BB: $10.74

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 3 3 K(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

Turn: ($2.05) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.15, Hero calls $1.15

River: ($4.35) 4(2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, CO calls $1.45 all in

Flop is perfect, top-set on a super-dry board is most likely not a huge money-maker as we absorb all the oxygene from the room, so c/c with the intention to let Villain catch up to a good 2nd-best hand.

That said, checking the turn is the logical consequence. But when Villain bets, it´s time to get the money in. The "risk" is that Villain sits on nothing but a draw and might simply give up on the river if he misses - where he´ll never fold a draw to a c/r on the turn. Ship it.

Hand #4

Here´s another example for missed value on the river:

CO: $9.77
BTN: $25.62
SB: $20.07
BB: $5.01
Hero (UTG): $10.15

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 5 3 Q(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) 4(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.30, BB calls $1.30

River: ($4.05) 6(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

We check behind the river because there´s a 4-card straight on the board. But think back to the flop and recap the action: Villain c/c the Q53s-flop. How many 2s/7s are actually in his range? I´d say 76s, 77 and that pretty much is it - nine combos. Didn´t we expect Villain to c/r the turn with the nuts though? So, let´s go with six combos. Too little to be expect to have less than 50% against his calling-range. So, the river is a very clear value-shove. We´ll definitely get called by any Qx, 53, 54, 65 and what not.

Hand #5

Finally a hand that was played perfectly - Villain was another bad aggro fish:

BTN: $30.12
SB: $9.07
BB: $10.00
UTG: $10.00
Hero (CO): $14.85

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with K 8
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 7 K 6(2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.95) 9(2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, BTN calls $1.60

River: ($5.15) A(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.15, Hero calls $5.15

The reason why c/c the river is way superior than b/f is that our hand isn´t quite strong against a range that consists most likely of busted flush draws (some of which hit the A), better Kings and all types of air / middle pairs that most likely won´t call the third barrel when the A hit.

The reason for c/c the river was twofold:

1) The huge riverbet looks more like a bluff with a busted draw than a valuebet with 2p+.

2) Most Villains lack valuebetting for thin river, so I had expected Villain to check behind with a weak A or Kx, weighting his range even more towards bluffs.

OK, you see, our main working topics remain valuebetting and being able to fold in spots we´re likely beaten. Bankroll has not developed much since my last blog, due to some bad sessions it dipped slightly below 500 again, still we´re 200 ahead of our starting stack - so hang in and wish us luck. :)

I promise (as one demanded), in the next blog I´ll add more hands that were played well, so stay tuned.

- Tack -