Stairway to RailHeaven

I already warned you, it´s getting ugly today. :)

What happened?

My sweetie probably went on some form of "winner´s tilt" and started playing hands she shouldn´t and consequently put herself in marginal situations she couldn´t handle well.

Before we look at single hands to see what caused this desaster, here´s the graph of the following two days:

So, we analyzed again what went wrong and I found several hands that were played pretty horribly. And again, my sweetie had a rough 1.5 hours with me (but hey, she wants to break through, right?).

What caught my attention (besides singular mistakes) that made up for a pattern?

(1) Deviating from the SHC (again) *).
(2) Ignoring part 2) of the framework, namely having a good reason for anything we do (again) *).
(3) That was the new part - playing passively with marginal hands oop against fish (goes along with (2) though).

*) If you´re new to my blog I suggest to read part 1 where the framework (incl. SHC) is explained.

You see, it always can be broken down to the same basic problems (who wonders?).

Especially part (3) was interesting (and I see it on the forums as well) - it´s caused by the permanent disbelieve in the fish having anything.

"They are all constantly bluffing me. He can´t have anything. He´s cbetting with his entire range, so my AJ rates to be good."

That all may be correct, still we have to have a plan. Let´s go into some details and you´ll see what I mean.

Hand 1

BTN was a giant fish (51/0), Villain was a solid-looking TAG.

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with 5 4
3 folds, BTN calls $0.05, Hero calls $0.03, BB checks

Flop: ($0.15) 5 5 2(3 players)
Hero bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, BTN calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.45) J(3 players)
Hero bets $0.45, BB raises to $2, BTN folds, Hero raises to $4.87, BB calls $2.87

First of all, 54s is not the best hand to complete the SB. I had preferred to either fold or raise and isolate the fish (with the intention to take it down postflop). If we can´t have position we should at least strive to get the initiative!

OK, with that said, we see a flop and hit trips - which is obviously nice, esp. with the possible flush draw - which could gain us some more money on an otherwise super-dry board. We correctly lead out (as nobody showed interest in the pot it would be a huge mistake to check and give a freecard). We get called twice and the turn is the J.

We bet again - obviously for value - and now we get raised from the TAG. All alarm bells should go off. What worse hands is the solid TAG calling the flop (3way) and then raising on the turn?
Remember, he got a free check in the BB, so his range is almost any two. As he didn´t raise preflop I think we can rule out hands like AJ and overpairs.

To me this move looks extraordinarily strong.

What hands do we beat? If we properly think about it we beat nothing. Is he bluffing? Doesn´t look like, he´s raising into a loose callingstation and oop-aggressor who barreled twice - furthermore he has committed himself.

All that said, I think this is a safe fold. We can´t call (because we´re committed) and if we think about it we´ll never get called by worse if we shove.

Hand 2

Villain in this hand is a loose-aggressive guy.

BTN: $5.00
SB: $4.68
Hero (BB): $5.21
CO: $5.29

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with K 8
1 fold, BTN raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) 4 6 7(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.82) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero folds

Another hand where we deviate from the SHC. K8s in the BB is either a 3bet (when the situation is right) or a fold. What good comes from calling a hand that is either dominated or won´t get paid off when we´re oop - even against an aggressive fish? Exactly. Nothing.

We hit as best of a flop we can imagine, with two overcards, the gutshot and the backdoor flush draw. Additionally it´s a board that very rarely hit Villain. It´s time to turn up the heat. So, either lead out - or even better - c/r him (because NL5-players tend to cbet too much in general). We´ll get a ton of folds and will have sufficient outs to improve / create barreling opportunities if we´re behind.

Instead my sweetie elected to c/c - which is the worst option we have! As I said, if we don´t have position we should at least strive to take the initiative. c/c on this board is just burning money. The fold on the turn (although the right move as played) proves that.

Hand 3

Villain in this hand was a 37/16, playing rather passive postflop.

SB: $5.18
BB: $5.50
Hero (UTG): $5.15
CO: $5.23
BTN: $2.51

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47) 8 3 Q(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BTN folds, BB calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.07) J(2 players)
BB bets $0.60, Hero raises to $4.70

We open KQo UTG (which again deviates from the starting hand chart - for good reasons on NL5!) and three players see the flop. We flop TP and naturally make the cbet (for value, we´ll get called by tons of worse Q´s, 8´s, Ax-hands and what not). BTN folds and BB calls oop. He can have a wide range (as already mentioned).

Now the J comes on the turn and the passive (!) BB donks the turn. What does that tell us? I don´t know. The J is not the best card in the world as it completes QJ (a likely holding in this case), but it´s not the worst card as well. We don´t have to automatically assume that we´re behind. The price is probably good enough to call with the plan to fold if Villain makes a substantial bet on the river.

But what happens now? My sweetie raises. And again - the part (2) of the framework raises it´s ugly head and asks:

"Sweetheart, what the f*** are you doing there? Why are you raising? For value? What worse hands ... ".

You know the rest (otherwise I´d suggest to read part (1) of this blog). Burnt money again (we lost against 33).

Hand 4

Villain in this hand is basically unknown.

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with Q Q
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.35

Flop: ($1.05) 3 J 3(2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, BTN calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.75) K(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3.67

This is a good illustration how to NOT play oop.

We 3bet QQ oop (which is completely fine) and get called. We see a dry J33-board. Villains range should not be ultrawide but we can´t say too much about it. In a vacuum I´d assume a range like 22-JJ, AJ-AQ, KQs etc.

The cbet is perfectly fine, but the turn is where it gets interesting. Imho, we have only two options: b/f or c/f.

Against an unknown b/f is completely standard. We have no reason to assume that we´re suddenly behind and the K - albeit a scarecard for Villain as we can have AK - shouldn´t prevent us from betting. We want to barrel air on this board as well, so we should keep the pedal down. Reasons for c/f would be that we assume Villain to check behind with worse hands (like 77) almost always but never call another barrel.

But what could be reasons to c/c or c/r? c/c is almost out of discussion as we´re committed anyway so we should close the shop. c/r indeed is not a good idea for exactly the same reasons we would c/f (if we elected to check). What worse hands (that called the flop!) will bet this turn and commit themselves to the pot? I can´t imagine (m)any. So, the turn is a clear b/f in my book.

The reason why she probably played the hand this way is easy (and I assume it´s a common one): she HATES bet-folding. ;) That´s something we´re actively working on - and maybe I´ll dedicate my next post to exactly that topic.

Hand 5

Villain in this hand was a very bad 35/18-player.

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 2 6 4(2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30

Turn: ($0.97) 4(2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, CO calls $0.85

River: ($2.67) 5(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40

This is a very good spot to illustrate missing value on the river. Villain has tons of worse hands he can call with, so we´re clearly missing value! If we´re planning to c/c the river anyway we should bet ourselves. Again - you know why she didn´t bet herself but c/c? Right, she wasn´t prepared to b/f the river - which indeed would have been the correct play (we lost against 54s btw).

Hand 6

Villain in this hand was a TAG.

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with A K
2 folds, CO raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, CO calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.92) J J 3(2 players)
Hero bets $0.65, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $0.85

Turn: ($3.92) 9(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.82, Hero folds

Another illustration of disbelieve.

"Villain could´ve easily bluffed me - what should I give him on this board? Is he actually raising a J?!".

And I answer as calm as possible:

We don´t know sweetie, but there´s nothing we can do about. Just fold and move on."

Some wise man once postulated "oop = out of power".

Hand 7

SB was a super-loose and bad player (41/0), BB was a tight reg.

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $0.15, 3 folds, SB calls $0.13, BB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $5.07, 1 fold, BB calls $4.47

This one shows how important it is to properly think about ranges and image. We´re a super-tight UTG-raiser (sth. in the ballpark of 13/11) and get called by the super-loose and stationary SB. What range do we expect BB to squeeze with in that situation (not to mention his stack-off-range)?

We should call for setmine (due to the super-strong range of BB and the fish likely coming along). Nothing good ever comes from shoving (obviously we lost against AA).

Hand 8

OK, somebody in my first blog entry asked for examples for protecting a hand. Here is one (UTG-raiser is unknown, BB is a loose and bad player):

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with K K
UTG raises to $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.07) 3 T J(3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $0.60, Hero raises to $1.65, BB calls $1.65, UTG calls $0.80 all in

Turn: ($5.77) 5(3 players - 1 is all in)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.08, BB calls $3 all in

We have no reason to assume that we´re behind against the donk-range of the UTG-raiser but we don´t want to flat this board 3way, so raising (and stacking off) is the only option.

Hand 9

Another, more subtle example for protecting a hand in combination with valuebetting. Villain was a loose, bad player, aggressive with stabbing at orphaned pots but passive on river:

BTN: $5.34
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $5.36
UTG: $6.40
CO: $13.20

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with A 8
1 fold, CO raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.32) T 8 8(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.72) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

River: ($1.72) J(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

The turn is a super-easy c/r for value. Villain can have tons of overcards and stuff like that (he´s willing to stack off with) but he most likely won´t bluff the river with air. So we don´t gain anything from c/c the turn - besides that some action killing cards could hit the river or Villain sucks out on us.

Hand 10

OK, and another one for protection purposes (obviously combined with value). Villain is a super-loose, very bad player:

SB: $5.77
BB: $5.00
Hero (UTG): $5.12
CO: $1.70
BTN: $5.50

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with T T
Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 8 7 5(2 players)
Hero bets $0.30, CO calls $0.30

Turn: ($0.97) K(2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, CO folds

Again, there´s essentially no single reason for checking the turn. We have to protect our hand against all kind of stuff that can hit the river and suck out on us.

Hand 11

And here´s a final example of an excellent play with a speculative hand we (mistakenly) elect to call preflop with (Villain is opening super-wide and cbetting way too often):

CO: $5.18
Hero (BTN): $5.09
SB: $5.02
BB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with K T
CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 7 3 A(2 players)
CO bets $0.37, Hero raises to $1.20, CO folds

Final Pot: $1.11
Hero wins $1.04
(Rake: $0.07)

Villain´s range is superwide and he rarely has a hand that he´s able to continue with against the raise.

The good news was, that after our thorough analysis (I think we worked through like 30-40 hands together) the next sessions looked like the following:

BOOOOOM!!!

Bankroll was up to $370 now (we started with $300) with a winrate of like 3.5 PTBB/100 over ~20k hands, so we felt like we could afford to take a strictly controlled shot at NL10 (within a very conservative frame).

=> More about that in the next blog.

Stay tuned.