Isn't that clover?

Because we check the flop, we are underrepping our hand and thus could induce bluffs on the turn. For that reason, I am calling the turn vs most players, with the exception being nits and clearly unimaginative players who take no stock in your check on the flop meaning anything and are merely x/r their 2 pair+ hands. Against them, tis an easy fold on the turn. Also worth noting is that I wouldn't check the flop vs that type of player because the point of checking the flop is to get lighter calls or induce. Vs non-thinking players, we likely won't induce, but we can get light calls without doing anything so betting the flop is likely best.


Vs any player who could understand my check on the flop as being weak, I'm calling the turn 100%. As for the river, we need to be good 27% of the time to call. With that being said, I'd be folding most of the time and would only call if I thought villain was aggro/spewy and was capable of bluffing here, or if I developed any sort of physical or bet-sizing tells.

In conclusion, I'd say vs any decent player, I'd be calling turn and folding river, barring reads. There just doesn't seem to be many hands villain could have that take this line as a bluff. Vs a weak/passive player, I'm folding the turn, but also betting the flop.

Oh btw, if my plan seems "correct," I expect some sort of stuffed animal prize.

The read that you got is important and i feel my reason for making any decision is hampered at the moment.

Generally (against your average joe in a casino), I prob fold river also.


He's repping a big hand here, well a hand that beats top pair anyhow on that board. IMO, people generally don't c raise bluff and lead out river often enough in a live environment to make a call profitable.

Yeah, so the read is definitely relevant here. The guy has been rather recklessly aggressive so far. He's also clearly drunk. In one hand that stood out, he was up against another aggressive player who had raised preflop and he had cold-called. The flop came 876 with two clubs, the PFR checked, the villian in my hand bet 2/3 pot, the PFR check/raised and the villain tried to 3bet the flop but it ended up being only call because of a string bet. The turn was an offsuit 4, the PFR checked and villain bet big enough to put PFR all-in, PFR folded, and villain tabled QJo.

Some other thoughts: 1) If the villain in my hand had a strong hand on the turn, how likely is it that he would try to check/raise it after the flop checked through? Keep in mind that most live players are frightened of giving free cards to straight draws (and flush draws, but there are none in this hand). 2) In my games, especially at 2/5, I find there are a lot of players that just don't step off the gas once they start a bluff. I think it's based on the fact that most other players will reraise right away with their monsters, so they feel emboldened to try to get a fold. They don't necessarily hand read well, but they can read strength/weakness from typical bad live TAGs. And they probably get enough lol folds from TAGs who just won't call a big river bet with 'just one pair' even if their opponent is representing very few combos of value hands.

So as you might have guessed by now, I ended up calling the river. This could be simply an anomaly of Harrah's New Orleans compared to other casinos, but I find that a lot of players in my games simply won't give up a bluff once they get started if they don't meet aggressive resistance (being raised or reraised at some point).

Given the read I described above, what hand range would you assign villain? I'll give the results in a bit.