March 30, 2011
Switching to PLO? 5 days and into "the Long Run"
I've been a break-even/slightly losing NLHE player for the past couple of years.
Saturday, I decided to try PLO, starting at Ipoker 10PLO 6max. A couple of hours later, I quit up 3 buyins.
Monday, I took at shot at 10PLO Rush on Full Til, and 3000+ hands later, I'm hotter than the Sun, averaging more than 30bb/100 winrate. I'm a little shocked. You know how they say that gettting to the long run, to know if you're really a winning player takes LOADS of hands? Well, after 3 days of poker with a standard deviation of 82bb/100, I'm way more than 95% confident I'm a winning player in those Rush PLO game. Was going to give the number, but this is more fun: =normdist(0,33.25,14.164,1)
Which is nice.
2 Comments:
Schweig posted on March 30, 2011 at 23:26 PM
Surely it's 97.5% as 95% only covers between ~0 and ~60bb/100. Long time since I did this in stats though.
Slowjoe posted on March 30, 2011 at 23:42 PM
"Over 95%" was allowing for modesty/doubt.
Obv, you know this, but rather than making you crack the books:
sd_sample = sd/sqrt(n)
= 88/sqrt(33)
= 13.7
So the 2 sd interval is from ~6.4 to 59bb/100.
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