I've been playing a lot of TD this month, taking on the regs and basically anyone who will play me, and it's pretty much felt like printing money. I've had only 2 or 3 losing sessions out of about 30 and they've been under 20BBs, while most of my winning sessions have been like 50BB+.
It's hard to know if this is a heater or that I have that much of an edge on the regs I'm playing. They just do completely wtf things a lot of the time, get frustrated and make tilt mistakes much more than me that I'm pretty confident I'm a winner, but this may just be a lot of run good too. Anyway here's the graph since around mid-October when I returned from my break: http://i.imgur.com/ULSBK.png
As you can see, it's pretty much been a variance free ride. I look around and see other poker players talking about their swings, posting about how they're struggling, and it is clear to me there are very few poker players who are in as fortunate a position as I am.
It almost feels like cheating when instead of getting used to having constant frequent swings, I pretty much just stopped having them. That's really how TD has been: except for the times I was outmatched by an opponent, I've had quite an easy ride upwards throughout the last year. My friend and I used to comment about how this must have been what the Partypoker days were like for NL way before we started playing.
Unfortunately, I can't advise you to drop everything and pick up TD, unless you also acquire a time machine and travel to around October last year when games were amazing (when FTP introduced TD). The games just aren't good enough at the moment to warrant it (sidenote: here's a post I wrote about the current state of TD games at mid-high stakes). There are just so few fish and a lot of ok regs that if you come into the game learning it you'll probably get beaten up a bit. What will be interesting though is what happens when FTP returns, though it could easily be dead due to all the shit that happened last few months.
My plan is basically to keep doing this and see if it continues, while dabbling a bit in other games to keep it interesting. I'm working towards finally moving out and buying a house. Even though I could have easily afforded to move out a year ago, my friends couldn't and I didn't want to live on my own or with strangers, and it got to the point where I just said, "fuck it, I'm just going to wait until I can buy a house outright."
This hand just exemplifies how well I've been running last couple weeks:
Poker Stars $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 2 players - View hand 1513826
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
BTN/SB: $1627.90
Hero (BB): $1673.50
Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is BB with 3
6 6
3
BTN/SB raises to $20, Hero calls $10
Flop: ($40.00) 5 7 5(2 players)
Hero bets $39.50, BTN/SB calls $39.50
Turn: ($119.00) 5
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $78.20, Hero calls $78.20
River: ($275.40) 4(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $250, Hero raises to $1024.90, BTN/SB calls $774.90
Final Pot: $2325.20
BTN/SB mucks 2 A
6 5
Hero shows 3 6 6 3 (a straight flush, Three to Seven)
Hero wins $2324.70
(Rake: $0.50)
I don't love the flop donk in hindsight due to my image so far this match, had shown bluffs a lot and if I get messed around with at all I don't like many turns besides 4c or 2 6s, maybe 3s and regular 4s, and a lot of cards lead to me taking a passive call-down guessing game line, like any flush card. Also, I don't really feel it's a great spot to barrel down when you get called on the flop because you may be barrelling into a 5 which is never folding, overpairs which are never folding for one bet and other shit. But whatever, I just decided to do it to mix it up.
Turn puts the 5 down making it a classic trips board WA/WB situation, so no real point in betting. Once I check it's a bit annoying but I feel c/c and then c/f river is probably the best line because I'm repping a range of fullhouses and I pretty much the bottom of it, and I think a lot of weak hands will stab the turn once and give up river.
Once I bink the miracle c/r-ing is clearly best (given I have the more bluffcatchery range and he has the "nuts or air" range). For bet sizing I just decided to jam pot hoping that my image so far would mean he feel he can't fold a huge hand - I mean I think he probably calls pot almost the same as 800, and seeing as this would be a really huge bluff (in terms of targeting hands which are really strong), pot size seems more appropriate.
In reality I'm probably not gonna bluff this spot like ever because his range is like Quads/77/AA and I don't expect people to fold fullhouses when I'm repping exactly an SF. It's a tough spot with quads for him, especially when me deciding to spaz a small % of the time will be large relative to actually having an SF because it's so unlikely (I have to peel the turn with precisely a hand like I have that has a fullhouse plus the SF draw), and he doesn't really know exactly how I'm thinking and only knows that I'm overall aggro. I can't really blame him for calling - if he had called 77 or AA I'd probably say that is bad because I can easily have a 5 myself when he has those.
Anyway, still running pretty hot, haven't had a losing day so far this month and already on my biggest ever month, $75k or so. Basically everything is working out for me when I need it to and I'm just not making many mistakes or tilting much.
My TD results since FTP went down. (And I thought it was all over.)
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/9885/tripledrawsincejuly.png
The rest of September didn't go well. I went from 30k up at one point to 20k down in the space of few sessions.
In terms of PLO, I hit a few pretty bad sessions and totally lost confidence in the game as a whole, which is such an important factor to both playing and playing well.
I tested my mettle at Triple Draw vs one of the best players at the game and lost a bunch there too in only a couple matches. Although I spotted a lot of leaks in his game it was still incredibly tough to play, but I think that might have been me just running way below average in terms of making hands, but again, confidence takes a hit when you lose that much.
After my downswing I had something like $28k in my account, maybe $26k after a few more sessions where I lost a bit quickly and just gave up. Even though I have money behind (and money that's locked up in Full Tilt), I still felt low and found it tough to get motivated.
Several weeks went past without me playing at all; I've probably said this before but it's astounding how different you feel about poker depending on whether you're running good or not, even when you try not to/know you shouldn't. One day, in the middle of October, I felt compelled to make an effort and try to get some kind of game going, so loaded up a couple TD tables hoping to find some stray fish even though chances were unlikely. Unexpectedly, one of the tough regs decided to sit with me at 100/200 (not the same one from before, but again, one of the toughest TD players in the world) and we started playing.
Firstly, it's important to note that with about 130 big bets in my account, entering an aggressive match vs a tough player who had previously owned me in the past was a very bad idea, just because of crushing it would be to lose that entire amount. And I almost did. I went down straight away, and was within $1k of busting my PS account, but somehow I mounted a ridiculous comeback and got back to +4k. This felt pretty good, but was short-lived because I pretty quickly got to $20k down again, before again getting back to even. It was already 4 or 5 hours into the match that I went down $15-20k a third time, but then in the last few hours of the match I managed to gain momentum and end $16k up. By that point we had played something like 9 hours and it was 11am here, and it felt like a huge win to just end that ridiculous match up.
Again though, it was a stupid idea because I can imagine the flip side, where I did in fact bust my account and it could have easily sent me on life tilt several weeks, or even months, after. I got lucky I guess.
I didn't play much for the next week after that. The games were still deprived of fish, and even though I had regained some confidence, I still didn't really have enough in my account to take on a tough reg again (bad regs won't play me) and I saw a darker side to myself when my account was whittling down, a desperate side. Yesterday though, I decided to sit down for a while and see what happened and out of nowhere, a guy who had final tabled a WCOOP for $150k sat down vs me and proceeded to dump 2 $4k buyins in the space of 10 minutes. This almost never happens anymore. It used to happen all the time a few months ago and it really did feel like free money whenever it did, whenever someone with super weak fundamentals at TD plays me at HU.
Anyway, I thought the night was over with, but then a semi-reg sat with at my table and wanted to play me, despite previously saying he would never play me. I'm not really sure why he wanted to play me, but I agreed and again launched into a late-night 6 hour HU match. He went up $16k at first, like before, but then I went on one of the biggest heaters ever and managed to end the session $33k up or something, resulting in my biggest winning day to date.
So despite only playing a handful of days, I'm up over $60k in October. A few weeks ago I didn't think this could happen again, not with the state of the games and certainly not with my mindset, but that's just how poker is. The swings are crazy, monetarily and mentally. When you're losing, you imagine the worst and when you're winning, you think you're the best.
I was willing to settle though; I was willing to accept not playing again for several months, to book a decent win for the year, to be content with what I had accomplished, but that's not the right attitude.
I believe we are all capable of things we never imagined. I never thought I could make it this far, to play these stakes, to make the amount that I do, but I worked at it, and I got here. Don't ever settle for mediocrity, don't ever be content being less than your full potential. If you're trying to make it in the poker world, constantly strive for something greater than you have, constantly strive to be the best poker player you can be.
I see graphs of rakeback pros and low stakes grinders, playing millions of hands with low winrates, devoting thousands of hours just for a slightly better than average wage; they make a living but they've stagnated as poker players. I don't believe that these players have hit the ceiling - I think they've given up growing.
See, this is the kind of shit you come up with only when you're running well. Seriously though, if you're a poker player who's stuck in his development, grinding away without ever breaking through, do not fret. Simply ask yourself what is holding you back, whether it is a technical understanding or a mental game problem - I often see things that will have you believe that one or the other is the main factor in poker, but clearly both are very important and you should pinpoint in which parts you're strong at and in which parts you're weak at before you can start working on them.
Here's hoping that you all have a good last 2 months of 2011. Oh yeah, apologies for being less active on this blog, forums etc. but I assure you Poker Mode is back on.
I posted a couple weeks ago about how TD was picking up more action and how it would be a sign of good times to come, but things haven't exactly turned out like that. I think either the action brought them here or they've just relocated to Canada, but a lot of regs have sprung up on the TD tables and it's killing the action a bit, especially in terms of HU. A few of the old good regs are back too, and often times there are 2, 3 or even 4 sitting at different tables across from 30/60 to 100/200 waiting for action, which makes it very hard for any games to really get started.
I've used this opportunity to shift focus back to PLO and I'm now playing 2/4 6max, attempting to move my way up the stakes the good old fashioned way (see previous posts my latest revelations about the game). Although I could try and make something happen at TD, by which I mean take on the better regs HU and create action that way, I feel the lower variance option is to just slum it out on the PLO tables while keeping an eye on TD. Plus, 6 max PLO has other benefits:
1) No waiting around for games. There's always enough volume there to just jump in if I have to, play a few hours and quit. I can get no action for several hours waiting at TD, and it varies between HU and short-handed, which I kinda hate now.
2) It's a game I haven't been developing enough this past year and it's good to be able to devote proper time to it. I feel if you play it occasionally/on the side of another game that is your main focus, it's really hard to establish that confidence that's really important in PLO, as well as get a good idea of the variance. Until now, I've been using "free money" at TD as a crutch and been lazy whenever I play PLO; I used to sloppily lose buyins spewing when I sat down because it was so easy to make all of it back plus a lot more in less than an hour at 100/200 TD. Now, I can be really motivated and take PLO more seriously.
3) It's a challenge. As a poker player I think it's really important to constantly test yourself in order to improve, and there is nothing harder than PLO in my mind - both in terms of the complexity of the game but also the variance that comes with it: PLO is basically the final level in poker, and the end boss is the biggest downswing you'll ever face.
So my game plan is to get in some volume in at 2/4 and then see about moving up. Something that I've noticed that is really important is table selection (and seat selection). I think when people go on big downswings they are often playing in a table that is actually really tough and it's not producing many situations where opponents make huge mistakes. A lot of people just see things in black/white and usually think "I'm a winner overall at this stake" means "I'm a winner in this current game right now" when it's far from the case, and I think they really underestimate how much difference it makes to have a couple fish who give you their stack (and about half of it in equity) once in a while in a spot regs won't. You really need those injections to have confidence otherwise it's super easy to get frustrated, start whining about never making a hand or when you do everyone folds (it's probably because you're in a game where you need to cooler someone to make money off them) and then start making huge mistakes yourself - then you're definitely not a winner.
So yeah, even though it's easier said than done (I know too well), really learn to quit, or at least move seats if there's a guy on your left who keeps owning you. I know it's really easy to think "I just want to beat him even though I'm out of position vs him and stuck several BI" and then stick it out to try and finally get revenge on him, but just realise that it's almost definitely not profitable to stay in that situation and even if it is, there are plenty of other more profitable situations in poker.
A few months ago I wrote a post about PLO being a game of pure aggression, thin value betting and getting people to fold their equity a lot of their time. Even though I somewhat still believe this to be true, I've very much started to rethink this stance with regards to 6-max; in fact, I've very much started playing the opposite way and have become way more passive. I think this is mostly reflected in flatting a lot more pre and hardly any 3-betting, as well c-betting less and not bloating big pots with average hands. Here is a breakdown of some reasons why I've started taking this approach:
1) There is little inherent value in 3-betting if opponents are somewhat tight, generally aggressive and showdown bound like they are at 2/4 PLO 6max. Sure, it works well vs tight-passive players at lower stakes, but the strategy of 3-betting and c-betting and having them c/f a lot of the time is much less ineffective if they are capable of c/raise shoving light with top pairs and stuff. Meanwhile, it's hard to actually make hands that have a huge amount of value vs these plays so they are somewhat correct to do so if you are 3-betting and c-betting too much, which ties into my next point:
2) Many opponents don't make that many big mistakes in low SPR pots, while a lot of them still make big mistakes in single-raised pots. The latter part is key and you get a much larger post-flop edge if there aren't a lot of automatic get it ins where there usually are when you bloat the pot.
3) Your flatting range includes a lot of stronger hands that you wouldn't have if you were an aggressive 3-bettor; because there are a ton of hands I want to flat to play in position, that I don't think have value in 3-betting, I need to have a lot of strong hands here.
4) The chance to backraise AA** when you flat is not that far off the chance that your opponent 4-bets and gets it in vs you, so you don't really lose that much in terms stacking AA pre (it may even be greater). It does really punish your opponents for squeezing you too light whenever you flat.
5) It's not like having AA** in a 3-bet pot is that great of a situation. Your 3-bet range crushes Axx boards, broadway boards and paired boards too much in terms of equity that them folding it a lot on them isn't exactly that good, and I think it gets pretty easy to define someone's favourite board textures when they 3-bet even if you do add in some low wraps. Meanwhile there are a ton of boards that your 3-bet range is mostly slightly ahead, slightly behind or way behind and as the aggressor you are forced to commit a lot more than you would like to just to find out, and then you're committed anyway because the stacks are shallow. Of course there are exceptions, where you've 3-bet a deceptive hand, or you flop the NFD as well, and your opponent "puts you on dry AA" and gets it in crushed, but I feel like these coolers don't happen enough in 3-bet pots.
6) A lot of my previous ideas about playing really aggressive were a result of a lot of HU PLO, but things are just completely different 6max. For once, people make ok-decent hands way more often that you have to be worried about them actually having it when you ship way more. People also do way less wild bluffs, and usually have some sort of equity, and it's easy to flop quite strong draws and getting it in with one pair a lot vs those draws isn't really the answer. In HU people are playing 50-100% ranges pre and that just doesn't make anywhere near as much stuff.
7) Most players aren't that used to playing against a somewhat passive opponent that can also hand-read well. They are used to either fish who play passive and bad, or regs who are mostly pretty aggro. I feel at the moment this leads to opponents misjudging my range a lot, value cutting themselves, not giving me respect for the nuts in certain spots where I have more than they think etc.
8) Linked to 1), but bet-folding is just not an option when people aren't check-raising only the nuts like they often do at 50 and 100 PLO. e.g. I've got dry aces but my opponent only check raises with top set, top two, massive draws which have me in bad shape, but at the same time it represents a tiny portion of his range so I can happily bet for value/information/protection and then easily fold the rare times he check-raises. Just doesn't work when they can do it with weaker draws, weaker made hands. At the same time, I don't want to bet/get-it-in with AA every time I get check-raised, not do I want to bet/call and create a massive pot with problaby a bit over a pot bet left, so it becomes ok to check it back on certain boards. Anyone reading this blog and still playing small stakes, I would still recommend bet/folding as your default play, but if you come up with a slightly unpredictable opponent, then start considering hands to not bloat the pot with.
9) Lower variance, which leads to a hell of a lot more confidence in your game which I feel is pretty key to this game.
10) Kinda related, but I think it's easier to play this way. Playing a very aggressive style is hard to get right, and do it too much you're soon in spew territory, and it's pretty easy to go over that edge in this game.
Anyway, I don't yet have a meaningful sample size since I started playing this way, but it does feel instinctively more comfortable. This could mean that this style is better, or that I'm fooled into thinking it's better because I am risk-averse and due to results from small sample sizes. Time will tell.
There's been a lot more TD action going, especially at 50/100+, with a lot of new names and faces showing up. There were at least 10 different players wanting to play TD at those stakes earlier today, which is pretty great as for the last couple months or so there have been only a couple, and at one point a 5-handed game going at 200/400.
My heater is back on. I got back from Edinburgh a couple days ago and since then I won $40k, mostly at 100/200. I think before I left I lost about $25k within a few days playing various tough players and not running that great. It's incredible how different you feel when you're not running well, and it's something that I'm becoming better at handling since I read The Mental Game of Poker.
It's really easy to get caught up expecting a certain result, whether it's expecting to win after a heater or expecting to lose after a downswing, but obviously that's counter-productive. Easier said than done, but you pretty much have to go into every game with a blank slate in terms of expectations, or at least realise your results can often exceed them or completely disappoint. I constantly say that the human brain is wired so badly for poker in many ways and this is just one of them.
As a sidenote, I really have fallen out of love with HU PLO atm. I haven't played it for a while, as there's been sufficient action at TD and I just enjoy it/am confident at it way more. I really wanted to move on up through the PLO stakes but I'm not sure how much PLO volume I'll be able to get in if TD action keeps up.
Here's a funny (pointless) hand from the other day: http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1415880
I was up $68k overall this month, which is my record month by quite a way. In the latter half, my HU PLO results stopped being amazing but I started getting some TD action again and ran super hot there. I did a Pokerhands import for the first time in several months and here's what my lifetime graphs look like now
Stars: http://i.imgur.com/7mn0B.png
FTP: http://i.imgur.com/sGoHD.png
In terms of PLO, I've been playing ok but it's definitely a lot lot harder than TD to play super well all the time. There are just so many different situations, so many variables, wildly different opponents, that you encounter a lot of spots you've never seen before and it's easy to make mistakes. I think the most important thing for HU PLO right now is working on my mental game; thanks to Tendler's book, I'm already starting to give more credit to the mental game in and out of sessions. I'm often asking myself "did I get frustrated there and if so, why did I get frustrated? How do I prevent myself from getting frustrated the next time?"
I'm going to Edinburgh in a week for two weeks so I won't be able to play much, but when I get back I'm going to be really driven and focused. As long as TD action doesn't dry up I'll do alright, but I really want to sharpen my HU PLO game so that I can move up through the ranks without trouble.
Just got Jared Tendler's book and it is incredible so far. He describes everything in such a concise way and it really makes me want to improve my mental game a lot more, not just in poker but everything.
It's crazy how important it is in poker - it could make a difference of thousands of dollars per year, or even more for some. I still think my mental game is probably better than most, though it's definitely helped a lot by the fact that in the past, I played TD which I rarely lose at so I haven't had to actually deal with tilt that much. So I've been lazy with it all recently; I've let a lot of mental game fish thought processes seep through, and my subconscious mind probably doesn't see a big incentive to correct itself. However, after playing some 400 and 600 HU PLO, leaks in my mental game began to become more obvious, as the swings are bigger and the players are better, and it has become clear to me that it really isn't good enough letting these leaks linger, especially if I want to move up through the ranks at PLO (a game that is much tougher than TD).
At the same time, I think about other poker players and I'm proud of the fact that I never tilt as hard as some. It is crazy (great?) how a lot of these players can keep playing with such huge tilt issues, and they never take the time to sort it out, but that's the nature of poker players in general. That's why PLO is always going to be amazing: the pure potential for massive tilt, because tilt comes from two main areas: lack of competency and frequent, large monetary swings. PLO happens to be the epitome of these two things.
So don't be like your average poker player. Be better than that, and do that by not only making your technical game as good as it can be but your mental game too.
