April 11, 2010
SNG Simulator - Rakeback added
Delliks asked me to add rakeback to the SNG Simulator and so I did.
I haven’t remembered about rakeback back then when I originally made it because as I play at PokerStars my form of rakeback is a bit different from the traditional form.
So, rakeback was easily added to the spreadsheet. Also, I’d like to explain a little better what the simulator actually does.
Based on tournament info and your finishing distribution, the spreedsheet runs a simulation over the specified number of games and calculates the resulted profit and ROI. For example, if your true finishing distribution is 10/12/15 there might be a stretch of 5000 games where you will finish in 1st place only 7% of the times due to natural variance and that will certainly impact your ROI, this is what the simulation does.
So, basically the simulation tells you that even if you have a 10% ROI you can always have stretches where you run a 5% ROI for example.
9 Comments:
Delliks posted on April 12, 2010 at 11:41 AM
Wow great job man :)
JtX posted on April 13, 2010 at 04:03 AM
Sorry to start commenting in your blog in a slightly negative manner.
Nice work on the SNG Simulator, I love how it works.
However, I think there's two bugs involved. Both Rakeback and Total Profit-windows have the same exact formula. So they always seem to have the same value. Of course, you can see from the graph how things really are.
Then there's a problem with precalculated profits per tourney. Now your formula is off a bit:
(Number of players * (Buyin + Possibility to finish first) * Payout for first) - (Buyin + Rake)
The possibility to finish first is used in every part of the way (1st, 2nd and 3rd). This makes the simulator to give out larger calculated profit for a certain finish distribution than it should give (If I have 10% possibility to finish first and 10+1$ tourneys, the result is off after 5000 tourneys by 4550$. The same false result is used in simulations, so simulations are a bit off by default if you use your own finish distributions as guidance. If you use your ROI and fix finishing % to your ROI, then simulator gives out correct results.
Correct formula should be:
(Buyin * Players * Payout%) - (Buyin + Rake)
rpadrela posted on April 13, 2010 at 08:55 AM
Thanks for spotting those 2 bugs. I'll fix them when I get home.
Delliks posted on April 13, 2010 at 15:57 PM
Hi rpadrela have you updated this yet?
rpadrela posted on April 13, 2010 at 16:10 PM
No update yet but I'll do it when I get home ( in a couple of hours ).
I'll let you guys know when the update is uploaded.
Delliks posted on April 13, 2010 at 16:25 PM
Ok cool, I compared to my HEM and notice the same results are a little off. Speak with you later.
rpadrela posted on April 13, 2010 at 18:23 PM
New version is uploaded. Both problems seem to be fixed. Please be aware that your Profit and ROI may be off a little bit from what you see in HEM/PT3 software due to rounding in the finishing %.
Thanks JtX for spotting those 2 bugs and thanks Delliks for the support so far.
Cheers
JtX posted on April 13, 2010 at 21:09 PM
Great job!
Delliks posted on April 13, 2010 at 21:26 PM
Nice work :)
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