Running for the red line

The continuing saga of my ski slop green line :)
Not played much the last few days due to some work I have been doing, but I got to the tables again today, 743 hands -72.5 bb

Noteable hands:

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 886015
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $2.00 - No reliable reads at this time (he's nitty TAG over 60 hands)
BTN: $2.49
Hero (SB): $3.75
BB: $1.05
UTG: $4.15


Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with T T
1 fold, CO raises to $0.06, BTN calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.26, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.60) 2 3 J(2 players)
Hero bets $0.38, CO raises to $1.74 all in, Hero folds

Final Pot: $1.36
CO wins $1.27
(Rake: $0.09)

Tricky hand to play oop here, I could have folded it. I wasn't looking on this as a squeeze play ( I think squeeze plays require the opening raiser to have some concept of position, which probably isn't the case here) I was betting for value looking to take the pot on the flop.

Hand 2 - Spew. Trun barrel was not standard,. God knows what I hoped to acheive on the river...

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 886026
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $1.15
UTG: $3.77
CO: $1.73
BTN: $2.20
Hero (SB): $2.09

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with 5 3
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12) 9 9 6(2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BB calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.28) 5(2 players)
Hero bets $0.14, BB calls $0.14

River: ($0.56) 2(2 players)
Hero bets $0.26

Hand 3 - Villain was pretty bad agressive, I had earlier caught him re-popping a river overbet with a missed flushdraw

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 886032
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $2.17
UTG: $1.87
CO: $2.28
Hero (BTN): $2.00
SB: $3.74

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with J J
UTG calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.09, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.07

Flop: ($0.21) 4 6 9(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.21) 4(2 players)
UTG bets $0.05, Hero calls $0.05

River: ($0.31) 3(2 players)
UTG bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

And some I won:

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 886035
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $1.38
Hero (CO): $2.00
BTN: $3.44
SB: $1.40
BB: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 6 6
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.09, 1 fold, SB calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.22) 8 J 7(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.12, SB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.46) 5(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25

River: ($0.96) 9(2 players)
SB bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1.54 all in, SB calls $0.69 all in

Final Pot: $2.84
Hero shows 6 6 (a straight, Nine high)
SB mucks Q A
Hero wins $2.66
(Rake: $0.18)

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 886036
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $2.03
BTN: $2.00
Hero (SB): $2.14
BB: $1.80
UTG: $2.12
MP: $1.25

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with T Q
UTG calls $0.02, MP raises to $0.04, CO calls $0.04, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.03, BB calls $0.02, UTG calls $0.02

Flop: ($0.20) Q 7 T(5 players)
Hero bets $0.20, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $0.20, CO folds

Turn: ($0.60) 5(2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP folds

Final Pot: $0.60
Hero wins $0.56
(Rake: $0.04)

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 886043
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $2.66
BB: $3.59
UTG: $2.00
MP: $2.00
Hero (CO): $3.75
BTN: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with J J
UTG raises to $0.07, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.24, 1 fold, SB calls $0.23, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.57) 8 7 9(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.57) 2(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.57) 3(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: $0.57
SB mucks K A
Hero shows J J (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $0.54
(Rake: $0.03)

If you've been reading my blog I've been whining incessantly the last few weeks about how bad I have been running since June.
Well It's not got any better. Hopefully my skills have  though :)

One thing I'm continuing to be fascinated by the concept of value bets. I think I've had some fundamental misconceptions about what constitutes a value bet in the past. I still subscribe to the basic "Bet 'till they raise" maxim but I'm beginning to identify more boards where check folding is fine. I used to consider it weak, an invitation for bluffs. I'm now beginning to trust the general consensus opinion that they just don't bluff.
I played two sessions today. 3 notable lost pots - Session 1 

Villain is 14/11 over 350 hands - I shouldn't have called the turn I was never ahead here.
Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 866460
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $1.97
SB: $3.56
BB: $2.61
UTG: $2.16
Hero (CO): $2.03

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with A Q
UTG raises to $0.07, Hero raises to $0.24, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.17

Flop: ($0.51) A J 3(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.26, UTG calls $0.26

Turn: ($1.03) 7(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.84, UTG raises to $1.66 all in, Hero calls $0.69 all in

River: ($4.09) 4(2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $4.09
UTG shows A K (a pair of Aces)
Hero shows A Q (a pair of Aces)
UTG wins $3.82
(Rake: $0.27)

Session 2: - both against the same villlain 24/3 AF 0.4

Hand #1
Full Tilt Poker $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 866463
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $2.01
MP: $2.37
Hero (CO): $2.00
BTN: $2.49
SB: $1.16
BB: $2.93

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.07, BTN calls $0.07, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.17) 3 8 T(2 players)
Hero bets $0.17, BTN calls $0.17

Turn: ($0.51) 4(2 players)
Hero bets $0.51, BTN calls $0.51

River: ($1.53) 5(2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

Final Pot: $4.03
Hero shows J J
BTN shows T T
BTN wins $3.77
(Rake: $0.26)

Hand #2
Full Tilt Poker $2.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 866464
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $2.63
MP: $2.34
Hero (CO): $2.00
BTN: $3.96
SB: $1.16
BB: $2.90

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with K A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.07, BTN calls $0.07, SB calls $0.06, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.23) 2 A 9(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.18, BTN calls $0.18, SB folds

Turn: ($0.59) 3(2 players)
Hero bets $0.59, BTN calls $0.59

River: ($1.77) Q(2 players)
Hero bets $1.00, BTN raises to $2, Hero calls $0.16 all in

Final Pot: $4.09
Hero mucks K A
BTN shows A 9
BTN wins $3.82
(Rake: $0.27)

View all 2 hands

Welcome to value town, population Me.

1st hand - meh coller.

Hand 2, the queen spooked me there, but I still bet for value from weaker aces.
The main mistake I made was leaving 0.16 back - i was looking at villains stack not my own.

I took a week off, not played, not read the Forums, not listened to the pod casts - A poker free week.

I've been losing badly lately, thankfully I've dropped right back to 2NL so it's not hurting my bankroll, but I'm seriously rattled by how things have been going this last 30k hands.

At first the plan was to study more,  concentrate and play through it, but last sunday after I got showed Quads for the third time in 6 weeks, I really felt the Tilt raging inside me.

I'm not leaving Full Tilt. It may be that it's no coincidence that I can't beat the tables there, it may be the Rake, but If I can't beat 2NL atTilt I have major problems.

But the 250 hands I played this evening did nothing to restore my confidence. I doubled up, but I was still 50 bb below EV thanks to the good olf runner runner.

I'm just going to ease myself back in with short sessions, when I'm feeling driven and focussed.

And I'm not looking at that graph again! I have me holdem manager filters set to "Daily". And I'm seriously considering creating a new database and archiving the last 120k hands.

But looking on the brightside - My HEM database is in the green - +$10.28 - so that's better than many I suppose.

I have spent a few days playing according to the advice I have been given recently
regarding identifying player types and looking to exploit them.

It's a little soon to assess my effectiveness at this new discipline, but I have been winning, which is nice.

Even if I was not winning though, attempting to think about the game in this way is very liberating.
It makes the time at the tables far more entertaining.


I probably don't have enough hands to identify the impact on my stats.
It does appear so fat that I'm a little looser preflop, and less agressive postflop.
My WTSD has droppped, and also my W$SD % has increased, which I think is the result I have been looking for.
(lifting up the redline)

I seem to be doing something right, but I need to target my study time towards understanding some of these concepts.

Coaching Kristy has a lot about expoliting bad agressives, there are fewer of these at my stakes but they do exist.
Coaching Tree has a lot about dealing with passives, of which there are plenty

So I'll make some notes, and record them here in my blog.

I was doing fine at Stars playing 5nl and beating it for 40k hands at 3BB/100.

Full Tilt, I've been losing heavily over 20k hands at 2NL. I  was aware that my pre-rake winrate was going to suffer because of the hidden profits from rakeback, but last month was really worrying.

At first I thought it was run-bad but I've begun to think that the players are different. I've been seeing more bad agressive players at Tilt and I don't think I've been responding to them properly.

I've been working on the assumption that an ABC tag style is the way to beat microstakes. And I still believe that's true.
But maybe abc tag is a bit different to how I was interpreting it.

I've been talking to some players and we spoke about exploiting opponents at the microstakes, and I have found it to be a very interesting excercise. I intend to study that aspect more and work it into my game over the next few months.

I found the cause of my run bad - In May I accepted a new job, and handed in my notice.

At the end of June I worked my last day at my old job, packed up my stuff and went home for the weekend ready to start my new job on the Monday.
That very night I lost 5 buyins in an hour. All that weekend I continued to lose, and this month the swings have continued.

The only possible explaination is that my new job is Rigged.
The management know I play poker after work and want me to stop so I will have nothing to do in the evenings
and will continue with my projects for something to do.

It all makes sense now, they are colluding with Full Tilt to put the doomswitch on me!

</sarcasm>

Seriously though - I have had emotional irrational thoughts like this all month. "The site is rigged", "My pc is hacked",
"The players know what cards are coming".

I'm continuing to push them all aside though.
They're no more credible than trying to corrolate two unrelated events like changing my job ad starting to run bad.

What might be corrolated is the difference in Rake structure and player pools between Tilt and Stars,
The impact that has on my pre-rake win-rate, and unconscious changes to my game where I'm attempting to compensate.

The only thing I know for certain is that I have plenty to learn and I intend to learn it!

I'm probably not going to be able to put anything constructive incisive of perhaps even interesting in this post.

I just want to set a book mark on my blog of how I feel right now. And that is "Dizzy".

I know I have leaks in my game, everyone does. But surely I'm not

 

This bad?

My green line looks like my red line should, my red line looks like I never heard of a value bet.

I'm honestly completely lost. It's just tearing my heart out.

So Im now back at evens for the month for play (Shipped $50 to the wife), which is really encouraging.
I felt pretty grim a few weeks back after my graph took a nosedive.

Im going to stay at 2nl / 5nl for a while longer, and try and double my roll to $300 before I look at taking another shot at 10NL.

Im still feeling a little bit negative, because I really did want to be at 25NL this year, but I think this months swing has done me good, and solidified my game a lot, particularly with regards my thinking about value betting in position.

Playing at Full Tilt is still a little strange though, you sort of think Oh Im running breakeven, or Im winning small amounts. And then the Rakeback lands and you suddenly feel like a winner again. Its important to be beating the game for a good amount before Rakeback though.

Sick couple of weeks!

Mid June Stars changed their rake structure to remove the floor for raked pots. They had a policy of not raking pots < $1 which is ideal for the microstakes player, as most of the money comes from dragging in the insane amount of dead money at these levels. (Villains are loose preflop, fit or fold post flop) The only reason I was playing Stars at all was to benefit from the reduced rake whilst also clearing a deposit bonus in lieu of rakeback. I was also quite annoyed about this change.

I have a bit of a bee in my bonnet about the relative percentage of the rake at the microstakes, I don't think it's good business to make the rake so tough for beginning players who might contribute more to the game if you gave them a break on the rake.

Anyway that's a rant for another blog, long story short I hit cleared my bonus on stars,. hit silver star and immediately withdrew the whole $200 into Neteller
I deposited $100 on Full Tilt with the intention of playing 5NL for a little while whilst I experimented with a few thoughts I had about my playing style. I splashed about at 2NL for a few hands while I waited for the Stars withdrawal to clear. Lost 150 bb which didn't worry me too much. Just standard stuff.

At about this time my Wife was looking into her income, and looking for ways to start up a little additional income stream for herself.
I said I'd teach her poker, and she laughed, said she was better than me and next thing I know we have a prop bet that she can make more thant me in a month! lmao easy win, I think and shipped her $50 from my roll.

Wow - que the downswing!
The day I deposited $100 I dropped 5 buy ins at 5NL. Now ordinarily that wouldn't have been a problem, except in one day my bankroll has gone from $200 to $125, and that's affecting my state of mind.

So suddenly I'm barely rolled for 5NL and a bit shell shocked. Best to move down to 2NL for a few sessions, recover my confidence.

Thank god I did!  I've been running at -2.70BB/100 the past 10k hands. It's not all beats and coolers (although I had my share) I should be able to let go of Kings and Aces when a passive player shoves over me on a raggy flop, I should be able to value bet more efficiently instead of blowing them off some worse hand.

I don't know whether these leaks have come in because "It's only 2NL" or becuase the meta game is different on Tilt, or because I think that I am in some way entitled to win the pot when I raise, or because I'm playing too many tables and Tilt is faster, or because I'm mashing the "Pot" button instead of assessing the best value.

But I'm very glad I'm plugging these leaks at 2NL.

Finally - my wife is spewing her $50 as expected, so If I can grind back up to even I may still get to win this bet :)

It's interesting how we approach learning.
As a coder my skillset is fairly easy to quantify:

1. I understand a concept/discipline at an unconcious level. I am confident in the theory and implementation. I am able to utilize it, leverage it and extend the scope of it. I am also able to provide quality training and guidance to others.

2. I am familiar with a concept/discipline, but not at an unconscious level - I still have to refer to documentation / manuals to clarify some points of syntax or implementation. I can safely implement it in a live environment, although perhaps not with optimum efficiency.

3. I am aware of a concept but not very experienced in it. I have experimented with it in a sandbox environment and have some limited understanding of the scope and implementation. I am very likely to miss apply or overlook some concepts and features of the discipline and the process is likely to be flawed and unreliable.

4. I have seen some discussion of a concept which may or may not be related to my current discipline. I have not investigated further and would be unable to describe the scope of the concept beyond a vague definition.

5. I am completely unaware of a concept or its meaning and definition.


And looking at this list it seems possible to apply this to my study list for Poker, and try to identify those areas that require additional study.

I've been experimenting with trying to create a study schedule for myself that ties in with how I learn on a personal level. And given that I have definitely succeded in learning web development to a point where I am at the top of my game, I'm trying to review that journey and apply it to Poker.

I'll write more on this idea in separate posts, as I experiment with the concept and test the theory a little. I'm debating how far down the rabbit hole to go with discrete concepts of a discipline, whether to take a broadbase approach to all round "poker" theory or to specialise. It might boil down to personal choice.