Running for the red line

Bankroll $118 - I'm still mostly playing 2nl, whilst I focus on my decisions and ensure I have tamed some of the bad aggressive leaks I have spoken about.

I posted a hand in the forums last night that I thought was interesting:

No reads on villains (8 hands)

Full Tilt Poker $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 923181
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $1.17
SB: $2.21
BB: $2.13
UTG: $0.21
Hero (CO): $2.20

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with K  A 
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.07, 1 fold, SB calls $0.06, BB calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.21) A  2  6  (3 players)
SB bets $0.08, BB calls $0.08, Hero raises to $0.56, SB folds, BB raises to $1.04,

The general consensus was that there is no reason to lay this down as we get value from draws and some weaker aces. I agreed with that statement but its very interesting to evaluate in spots like this:

Small blind donks into us. This is usually a sign of a hand he's turning into a bluff.  We'll come back to the small blind later as his presence in the pot does affect things, but for now let's concentrate on the big blind at the point where he limp-reraises us

Lets try and put him on a range. Pocket pairs will be in there and we will have to tweak it a bit, but lets start with the obvious - 22,66,AA - Obviously I'm crushed but just for fun:

AA,66,22 = 94.848%

Now it's no hard stretch to imagine that the big blind is overcalling preflop with a much wider range of strong  and also speculative hands when he's closing the action in a multiway pot.

We could look at his full range preflop, which is probably any pair, a lot of suited aces, suited connectors even a number of offsuit broadway hands that he makes a mistake in calling oop (It's 2NL don't forget)

22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo = 13.085%

Well on this flop I'm crushing them! But hold on a moment. We are in position and there is action ahead of us. Free information that we must consider. (That's the whole reason we want to play in position)

We can use that information to narrow his range:

So SB donks and BB calls. He's clearly not doing this with all his missed draws. 

He has some equity in the hand when he calls behind. Assuming he's not tilted or otherwise disadvanteged, Calling behind on an ace high two tone flop with the pre-flop raiser still to act is a big decision. 

I don't think he does it with air. I do think he does it with worse aces and all his flush draws,
possibly pocket pairs he's decided to re-evaluate on the turn. We take all the suited kings out as I have the Kd

22+,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,
QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,JTs,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,6d5d,5d4d,4d3d,3d2d,ATo+ = 19.784%

Ok so we still have him crushed - let's add the small blind on the same range and our equity is 64.101% - so we can bet for value.

Small blind folds, big blind min-reraises. 

The min re-raise is such a strong play. I really think we can polarise him to suited aces and sets now:

AA,66,22,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad5d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d = 94.84%

And we're crushed and should fold.

You could argue that his min re-raising range is the same as his oop flatting range but I really find that hard to believe.

What's fascinating though is how quickly the equity changes with only a handful of worse pocket pairs in there! Simply add KK and QQ into the mix  and suddenly we're even Stevens. If he EVER tries to bluff me here, even if we only give him 3 combinations of QQ that he went on tilt with, we are at 30% and cannot fold.

Thoughts?