April 20, 2010
2010 so far.
2010 has been kind of intense for me. I haven’t played that much poker, although Rush PLO is certainly helpful to put in volume. I started doing some other stuff for a while but I’m back to poker for now. My main priorities right now are play poker and finish my Law School thesis. Hopefully I will be able to write about the legal issues of playing online poker in Mexico. I’ve been going to Austin, Texas twice a month since January and I’m planning on moving there by next year. That city is the balls. Great music, great vibe. And they actually have some delicious tacos there.
So, basically…I’M BACK! Here’s a hand I played today which I thought was slightly interesting.
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
MP: $59.40
CO: $63.70
BTN: $50.70
Hero (SB): $83.70
BB: $29.30
UTG: $55.25
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with K 
K 
Q 
J
4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1
Flop: ($3.00) 6 J K (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50
Turn: ($8.00) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $8, Hero raises to $32, BB calls $17.30 all in
River: ($58.60) T (2 players – 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $58.60
Hero shows K K Q J (three of a kind, Kings)
BB
I think betting the turn here isn’t great (especially if we had been 100 bbs). He’s most likely not folding anything he called on the flop and now any 4,5,7,9,T,Q,A makes a straight and any heart completes the flush. That means most of the time when we bet the turn and get called, on the river there’ll be $24 in the pot and our opponent will have $17 in his stack. That means that very often we’ll have to check-guess, which leads to mistakes. At 100 bb, there would be $24 in the pot and $37 in our opponent’s stack.
When we check the turn, we give him a chance of betting, allowing us to get all the money in now and avoid the costly river mistake. When we check and he checks behind, we give our opponent free card, but the most expensive mistake we’ll make on the river is going to be worth only $8. Of course, this also strengthens our c-bet, check turn range which is great for obvious reasons. Thoughts? At 100 bbs we could get all but $7.50 on the turn, which I guess makes me want to bet bigger on the flop.
How should we play this hand if we were 200 bbs deep? Check-raising the turn isn’t that great now because the river situation when called is basically the same but for a bunch of more money. I think we’d have to barrel the turn and basically hope he raises and we can get it in, or be resigned to have the river be $24 and have to make a tough decision there. That doesn’t make much sense to me though, but neither would check-calling the turn.
3 Comments:
ohjoy posted on April 20, 2010 at 08:25 AM
Without knowing anything about villain i would say that his most likely holding is a flush draw of some sort, or a QJTx kind of hand. We can actually bluffcatch quite comfortably on both a Q and a T, and a T is probably the best card for us in terms of "holding up". --------------------------------------------
Personally, I'd bet the turn and get awkward on the river. I also don't give much consideration to the backdoor straight draw because of the broadway heavy coordination of the board. This board will usually develop into the K-9 straight, A-T straight, flush or full house being the nuts, and I wouldn't worry too much about the lower straight.
orestto posted on April 21, 2010 at 04:59 AM
After discussing the hand with delcrossb I do think the check-raise on the turn is better if something like an 8 came, or in worse spots like on a 469J spot. However, I think it's fine to check here, especially in a BvB spot where very often we are going to lead the flop after raising pre-flop and check-folding the turn. This adds strength to our "checking the turn OOP after c-betting line" which is obviously great.
I agree that the lower straight isn't that likely, but I wouldn't feel that comfortable check-calling a pot bet on a T or Q river, although I may be wrong here. I mean, not that I'm always folding, but I expect to make a mistake sometimes on a T or Q. So if we narrow it down to really bad cards, that'd be 9, T, Q, A or heart. 6 hearts + 3 Queens + 3 Tens + 3 Nines + 3 Aces: 18 total, out of 44 cards left in the deck: 41%. That's not great, considering on the lower straight cards we're probably not shoving, but checking.
So if villain recognizes the lower straight card isn't great for bluffing, he'll probably check down a fair amount of the time and we don't get value. When he does hit, he probably has a fair bit of implied odds going for him. Definitely a lot of bluffing equity as well, even if we just count Aces, 9s, and hearts that's 14 bluffing outs, which translates to 31.8% bluffing equity.
It's crazy how powerful position is.
Bigvee posted on April 21, 2010 at 05:34 AM
I dont mind the check here as I think it does balance the "cbet then check line". Checking through the turn isint horrible, we miss charging some strong draws but we get there enough on the river or can donk a blank (villain dependent).
200BB deep I barrel and hope to get it in.
I know I didnt add much to this hehe.
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