April 18, 2010
Anyone who knows a little bit about me knows that I like silly prop bets. Recently I considered two noteworthy bets with my good pal BBB. We made the first but couldnâ€™t come to terms on the second. The first concerns our mutual friend Jay.
Now for those of you who donâ€™t know Jay, letâ€™s just say heâ€™s a bit noobertish. To wit: BBB and I spent at least 40 minutes telling him how to cook a hot dog. Donâ€™t get me wrong. Jay is one of my favorite people, but heâ€™d be one of the first to tell you that heâ€™s somewhat absent minded.
Anyway, heâ€™s thinking about joining us on our June Vegas adventure. So BBB and I got talking about the chances that heâ€™ll actually make it out west. We both decided that he was somewhat unlikely to actually make it. I told BBB that I thought there was about a 27% chance that Jay would actually come. BBB agreed that was a fair line so he bet me 4 Abraham Lincolns that Jay would not come. 3:1 if I win.
The second bet is a bit stranger. I was watching a show on NatGeo about the possible existence of life on other planets. BBB and I agreed that there is probably intelligent life out there in our galaxy, but we thought it was pretty unlikely weâ€™d ever make contact with said life. Unfortunately we thought the odds were long enough that weâ€™d make contact in our lifetimes that neither of us wanted to offer them. Iâ€™m not sure what the correct number is, but my guess is that itâ€™s over 10,000:1 against us receiving a message from an alien race. The galaxy is just such a big place and the chances of intelligent life being close enough and advanced enough to send out a message, much less have that message reach us, are so small.
Plus thereâ€™s always the chance intelligent life contacts Jay first. In which case weâ€™re fucked.