A blog officially protesting HUDs

With all the stuff going on in the poker world and my life i kind of just need to vent. Things have definitely stressful after black friday since i have about 20k tied up on the internet. The way things happened were so fast and took everyone by surprise.  I went to bed Thursday April 14th and life was so amazing, exciting and optimistic. I woke up Friday April 15th and reality slowly crept in. Once I came to grips with what was happening i wanted to throw up. I felt like my future was in jeopardy and everything i had worked for was gone. They couldn't just come in and take all my hard earned money could they? Also i have 5k on the way that says its being processed does that get lost? 
HOW DID I GET HERE?
Last night sitting in a 5/10 game at commerce it definitely made me reflect on how i got there. I was sitting in a game that i used to only imagine playing in. The idea of playing for 1k in a NL game seemed too crazy to ever happen to me. I started out by luckboxing an online tourney and then going down to commerce playing the capped 40 dollar bi 1/2 game that i now realize is flat out unbeatable bc of rake. But to get where i am now as i consider myself a professional poker player I had a ton of drive, optimism and will to grind out wins in the small games. This enabled me to start to get to higher games.  As i went back to school I fell into playing online and found my niche in 6max NL and HUNL games on the 3 major sites. I luck boxed a few mtts and built my roll.  But to be honest I wouldn't say i was a good poker player. I had the ability to beat the games but I lacked perspective, objectivity, and self control. I often tilted and punted money.  I didn't have the ability to see the merits of an opponents play and thought everyone was bad.  Most people were bad but not being objective and playing poker with ego leads you to the road to busto. I ended up downswing a lot at 1/2 and basically went busto when i went back to school and fell away from playing full time.   Eventually things clicked I started playing 25nl Fr starting over and learning to grind, not tilt and just understand things for what they were. Basically i took the ego out of it.  I continued to crush these games and hit some scores and over the last year i went from 25nl Fr to being able to hold my own in 1/2 and 2/4 NL games online.  I was just starting to take shots at 2/4 in the last few months or so.  I also made a ton at 100 and 50 rush. Id say in a top 5 all time winner at 50 rush. I had come so far then last friday went down and all this was in jeopardy.
BLACK FRIDAY
April 15, 2011 is the day that no one forgets if you play online poker for a living. To steal a line from Adam form 2p2, " It's the day Kennedy got shot.' If you play online for a living your lively hood and and ton of money was at risk.  I was in my bed and started to check twitter and didn't know what to say.  But in all honesty this was inevitable and I think the writing was on the wall.  Why else would FTP have the multi-entry tourneys and stars be in talks with Steve Wynn. I think that the owners knew but didn't know when and wanted to get as much money while the could still operate in the US market. That being said I am not happy this happened and would have preferred the timing be much different but it is what it is. Black Friday will change the poker landscape for a while in the US and i think that its going to be tough on a lot of players myself included. 
THE AFTERMATH
So what does this really mean for US players. Well, we will get the money back and i think it will be sooner than later. But even so this leaves poker in the US exponentially harder to play for a living. I think maybe only the top 15% of pros can make a living playing live cash/ tourneys. And within that top 15% short term variance is going to play a huge roll given volume just isn't there live. Win rates will be skewed playing live because of the short term variance being so drastic due to the pace of the game. I do believe that win rates can be much higher overall but short term variance can crush some people while playing live.  I do think if you are rolled to play above 2/5nl and play some mtts that have good value making a living playing live is doable but will be tough.  I think if you have to play smaller than that its going to be tough and you flat out have to run good to make things work.  
The biggest reason why i think so few will be able to make it in this tougher poker landscape is i believe that if you need to win to support yourself given the levels of difficulty your life has to be in order in all aspects. There will not be room for laziness, irresponsibility, or having any vices that will take you away from the game. Also being financially responsible will become extremely important.  Basically there will be no room for error and things like flipping for dinner tabs, and bar bills will leave some players busto IMO.  I do think making it in the new world of poker is doable but is a huge undertaking that i'm ready to go full steam ahead with. Basically among the players that play well enough to win those that have their lives in order will end up making the money and those who don't will go bust
The other option that I'm considering is moving outside the US and continuing to play online. I am going to see how games are developing on FTP/stars during wsop and see if its worth it. I think my hourly is probably highest online but if games are bad no point in moving to cananda to make money but its something I'm strongly considering. Given i dont go bust or anything i really think this is a good option if you dont have a family or any obligations in the US.  The other thing is it might be nice to live outside US in Europe and enjoy other parts of the world.
THE FUTURE
So what happens next? We really have no idea but since we love to speculate I will join everyone in doing so.  I think that short term this sucks and is obviously bad. But i do think that the government does not want to kill the market. Which is why i always though we would get the money eventually. Like i said its going to be hard but doable to maintain in the poker world but its not going anywhere and as long as people lack ability to be objective and logical poker will always be profitable. That being said just because its profitable doesn't meant that you can make a living off of  it but i think that the smartest players will always be able to make a living off of poker.  I think you will see a lot of internet kids take shots at wsop and go bust this summer for many reasons i stated above. I think you will see a lot of players just be over it and move on but there is good news imo.
GOOD NEWS
What? good news? Yes there is good news. IMO this is rock bottom for poker in the US.( Can it get much worse lol?). So the only way to go is UP!  I think that Online poker will be regulated  and we will have 1 or 2 sites that are legal in the US and payment processing will be more solid that we are used to. This is good news! How good? Very Very good news. Also If its regulated and legal in the US you will see many many more recreational fish depositing and punting money in the online market.  There will be a second poker boom.  The US economy has shown some signs of recovery and if these two things can happen simultaneously I think we could see a huge second poker boom. It will never be like the party days when there almost was a win $$$ button  but i think you could see  games getting very good and alot of money to be made. 

I saw a girl i used to date on st. patty’s day and shes still as crazy as ever and wonders why “it didnt work out” well this is all i gotta say!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHoT-mVCKn0

So the first two months were awesome i went on a solid heater and then march slowed mainly because of the increased business of other things in my life poker has for sure slowed.I have ran way under EV in cash games and tourneys have been a joke with how bad ive been running when the money goes in.

Its fine i know i have some built up run good coming my way in end game in mtts. The last few times i have played i havent really played that good when ive played cash and over all i am on a minor 450 dollar downswing, not the end of the world. I think im up something like 300 on the month which is fine because i made 4k the first two months of the year.

I was planning on attending Harrahs Rincon san diego event tommorrow but my baseball training business is blowing up right now. So i think im going to really grind hard and go to vegas next month and play this http://www.wsop.com/tourney/tourneydetails.asp?groupID=755. I want to go the 14th and just grind for a few days and take shots w/ like 1k in bi’s. After i have a solid cash or two im gonna grind some 1/2 and maybe some 2/5 as i have a lot of live experience and have done well in the games and i think that winrates in the games can be through the roof.

All my online mtt endgame run bad just lets me know that im so due for a score. For example i had played 9 mtts sunday and had 40 bb stax at the start of antes in 7 of them and i only cashed in one. I ran nutted hands into even more nutted hands or was just destined to lose every flip. MTTs are really sick tbh and i have no clue how some can grind them exclusively but i do think they have alot of value. I

I have been playing very very well and have no complaints. I’m only up a few bi bc im running terrible at showdown. Overall im up 6 bi if you count a HU session i put in.But whats scary is im up almost 8 bi w/o showdown and down i think about two at showdown. Just running into alot of ppl winning ai with draws and stuff too. But when it turns im going to be shipping bis w/ ease.

My take on the state of the games are basically this. When ppl click call they will have a wide range. When they bet they have it. There river betting ranges are incredibly unbalanced And this hand came up that i am actually extremely happy with my play but this fish surprised me. I thought he also had a flush draw too when he bet to go along with his random air so that is my rational for check raising this river

He was like a 45/6 std donk and somehow he owned my soul. But i think it works vs like 99% of opponents and their range. My read on value ranges and ppl dont value bet thin at these levels played into my choice to c/r the river. My play here vs any compentent opponent will get looked up light but this type of player is very bad so i was so confused with his play. If i though he was good and saw him playing better i would give him credit for leveling me but i just think he thought he was good so he was never folding.

!HEM graph!

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Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $43.50
UTG: $20.20
MP: $38.30
CO: $25.70
BTN: $21.50
SB: $32.05

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 5 9
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.00) 6 6 Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, UTG calls $0.75, CO folds, SB folds

Turn: ($2.50) K (2 players)
Hero bets $2.00, UTG calls $2

River: ($6.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $3.00, Hero raises to $8.65, UTG calls $5.65

Final Pot: $23.80
Hero shows 5 9
UTG shows J Q
UTG wins $22.65
(Rake: $1.15)

So i have a really cool story that happened about a year or so ago. So after a pretty sizable downswing for me I had this awesome week where i won 3k in a mtt and took a piece of a buddy in the 1k monday and he final tabled and made meanother 2.3k. And was itching to take shots higher but was too scared to do so. I decided to have beer and go to bed but trouble falling asleep. I took two cap fuls of nyquill and kept watching poker after dark.

AS the nyquill and beer mixed in my blood stream my head told me lets play some 2/4 HU. Keep in mind my bread and butter at the time was 50nl 6max and i would say playing 100nl HU would have been a shot at the time. So I 2 tabled the same opponent and after a few hands in I literally have no clue what happened.

I woke up the next day with my computer open and as i opened my laptop i had a vague idea of what occured. As I am looking at the two empty beer bottles and bottle of nyquill half full my stomach drops and literally want to puke right then and there. I cant tell you one hand of how i got in any money or anything that happened between me sitting with my opponent and passing out with my laptop still open on my bed but to my complete shock my account wasnt busto or down 3k or something, but i was up 1.3k and literally have no fucking clue how i did it or how the hands went down. It was the most releived i ever was. I keep staring at my account making sure it wasnt a dream. But it was a mind trip of a morning and im sure ill never do that agian but was fun to tell ppl about!

So at the start of the year my goal was to make 100k through work, baseball coaching and poker. I know it seems lofty but last year i made 18k in poker. I played mtts, live cash, and put in most my volume at 50nl. It was my first year playing poker seriously and all in all i was very happy. I feel my goal is attainable if i can be rolled enough to play some higher bi mtts and get to 200nl at some point late in the year. Also i plan on playing a ton of live poker this summer bc i think its so fn profitable i cant beleive ppl risk as much as they do in the games.

Poker has been going great so far as im up 4k in the first 4 weeks of grinding. And My baseball coaching is really taking off. What i do for that is basically what deucescracked coaches do for poker players. I do individual lessons and train hitters to become better. I took a job at a local high school that basiaclly doubled my client base and my job is bringing in my steady paycheck that covers my day to day needs.

I am taking a break until this weekend and im going to go down to LA to put in some MTT sessions with my buddy hagbard celine, who is a sick sick mtt regular. He is in town for the LAPC, would be sick to rail him at the LAPC final table. So this weekend im going ot put in a pretty heavy session as far a volume goes and take some shots at mtts. I made two final tables in my last two mtt sessions in rather large fields. Sadly i came up short both times. I have run terrible at final tables the last 8 months or so. But i feel so good about my mtt game as i think i made near 30ish final tables last year and so far this year i feel i get better every session, so if the poker gods could find it in their heart to let me win when the money goes in at a final table that would be much appreciated. If anyone doesnt belieive the absurd shit ive had to deal with at final tables ask bosoxx as hes always reliable to rail me for all my deep runs.

Anyway sorry for the ramble, im just taking this break bc i put in like 200k hands over 4 weeks and somehow was up a bunch at the end and im really busy anyway.

Basically im grinding every aspect of life right now and it doesnt stop. I dont plan on stopping until summer for my week or 10 days at the WSOP. But its all making my goal of 100k seem reachable i just cant lose focus on my goals.

Gl at the tables,

Robert

So i have finally gotten back in the swing of things and decided while i was in school i was going to grind full ring for various reasons. I had to take a while off poker because i basically dumped most my bankroll on school. But i have been back grinding 25nl FR and w/ some ridiculous mixture of fullring, 6max, HU, Rush, and 3 mtt final tables(1 win) i had a 4k month. It felt good to get started on the right foot and getting my mind right at the tables again. I feel what kept me in touch with the game is watching videos, but i for sure fell off the DC forums for a bit but i am letting you guys know im going to be active again like i once was.

I feel i owe this to the community that helped take me because it took me from a completely clueless noob, to someone that can be a pretty dangerous player in all types of NL holdem. So i just wanted to say hi to everyone again and i look forward to talking w/ everyone in the forums.

For where im at now i am still at 25nl FR but i am rolled enough for 50nl but cashed out to take some shots at live mtts in the next few weeks at the WSOP circuit event in San diego. IM also going to play live cash there as the games were pretty sick last year. I’ll post updates on my climb back to 100nl and i see myself settling at 200nl by this time next year and being content with grinding supernova, 100nl HU and mtts in some sort of mixture. I have been talking alot with my buddy bosoxx34 and he has been huge in supporting me move up the stakes back to the games i want to be playing.

Basically deucescracked gave me the platform to do something i love and let it be a potential career and i owe it to everyone here to give back.

Talk to you guys soon!