December 25, 2009

Boxing Day Predictions

I placed a couple of NBA bets today, but I’m not going to go in-depth on the reasoning behind them. I put 80 on a triple, and 85 on a single. Lakers beating Cavs at in Los Angeles, Magic beating Celtics in Orlando and Suns taking down Clippers in Phoenix for a combined total of 2,5-1. Probably not a great price, but Orlando have a pretty big edge historically against Celtics, so I’m pretty much just getting close to 2,5-1 on Lakers beating Cavs. I think that’s a pretty good price, so I’m okay with it although it’s pretty close. I also bet on the Heat beating the Knicks in New York, which was my single. Getting 2,2-1, I think that’s quite a solid price.

Now for my Boxing Day “Predictions”… It’s actually more like my gambooooool analysis. I’ll post a summary tomorrow night.

Birmingham – Chelsea
Obviously a Chelsea win. If Chelsea are going to make some headway in the title race, they have to pick up 3 points away from home vs. Birmingham, so Chelsea should take this and I think they’ll take it by 2 goals as well. They’re missing Drogba, but a lot of their goals come from Anelka, Lampard plus they have plenty of other capable goal scorers so I’m going to say Chelsea, and if you can get a decent price on a 2 goal victory for Chelsea, you should probably go for that.

Fulham – Tottenham
This is an interesting matchup. London derbys are always fun. I have a soft spot for Fulham, so I have to warn you; my opinion could be biased. Tottenham are a very inconsistent team, and they can hammer teams one minute, then play like a Championship side the next. Fulham’s home form this season is pretty solid, especially on the defensive side (they’re one of the tightest teams in the back conceding only 6 goals at home). Combine this with Tottenham’s inconsistency, I think Fulham have a pretty good chance to pick up some points in this match. The striking threat of Tottenham is worth a notice, but I think Fulham’s solid defence will prevail against Tottenham. If Zamora and Duff can continue their form from the match vs. Man Utd, they could even grab a win. I think it’ll be a close match, but I think Fulham will edge Tottenham at least 33 % of the time given Tottenham’s inconsistency. At a price ranging from 2,5-1 to 3,5-1, you should obviously put your money on Fulham, or a draw (although Fulham have gotten rid of their tendency to draw since the appointment of Hodgson).

West Ham – Portsmouth
Portsmouth look a different side since the appointment of Avram Grant, but West Ham need these points. They’ll fight hard, and they’ll need to edge this to stay up in my opinion. They’ve looked very good and gotten unlucky in a couple of matches, which you could say about Portsmouth this season as well. This is an important match for both sides, and I think West Ham will come out on top.

Burnley – Bolton
Burnley have looked good at Turf Moor this season. Burnley win.

Manchester City – Stoke
There’s potential for a big upset in this match if the rumors about dressing room disharmony in Manchester City due to the managerial changes are true. I guess we’ll have to see what effect Mancini has. I’m not sure Manchester City are worth the price they’re getting, but I definitely think they will win this match a good % of the time. I’m not happy with the price I’m getting for a Manchester City win (I think I’d take 1,6-1 or so), so I think there’s more value in going for a draw. I think Man City will win it, but I think there’s a lot of value in betting on a draw in this match.

Sunderland – Everton
Everton have been slumping this season, and I think they’re going to continue to slump against a very good home-side in Sunderland. Sunderland will probably take this, and be quite comfortable. I’m definitely putting money on this match, because I think there’s a lot of value in Sunderland.

Wigan – Blackburn
Blackburn are hideous away from home. Wigan are very good value for about 2-1 or better.

I’m not going to take a look at the Super Sunday, nor the Championship. I might post an update tomorrow when I take a deeper look at the Championship and/or Scotland. I’ll definitely post an update with confirmed bets later.

Posted By ohjoy at 07:19 PM




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