Aggressive Certainty

Bankroll Management (BRM) allows poker players a defense against the improbable. But what is the best BRM strategy? Since BRM is used to keep us from busting, we define the best BRM strategy as allowing us the greatest downswing.

After crunching the numbers, a super conservative 150 bi BRM strategy allows for a 265 bi downswing while still keeping the player in the game at a primary income level (100NL). 

But given two equally skilled players. Given equally bad luck. Given no bad play involved. The player that survives a 265 bi downswing, the doom switch from the depths of hades itself, will be the one using the 150 bi BRM strat. He's twice as likely to stay in the game as someone using a 40-50 bi BRM strat.  

BRM is a choice.  It's completely within our power to decide if we want to be resilient to extreme negative variance or be a victim of it.  That is all.

Big game losses, unstructured BRM
$100,000 bankroll, 100 bi @ 5/10
lose 70 bi's drop to 3/6 (30,000) 50 bi
lose 35 bi drop to 1/2 (9,000) 45 bi
lose 25 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000) 40 bi

withstood 130 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's

60 bi BRM
100,000 bankroll, 100 bi @ 5/10
lose 64 bi's drop to 3/6 (36,000)
lose 20 bi drop to 2/4 (24,000)
lose 30 bi drop to 1/2 (12,000)
lose 40 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000)

withstood 154 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's

80 bi BRM
100,000 bankroll, 100 bi @ 5/10
lose 52 bi's drop to 3/6 (48,000)
lose 26.6 bi drop to 2/4 (32,000)
lose 40 bi drop to 1/2 (16,000)
lose 60 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000)

withstood 178.6 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's

100 bi BRM
100,000 bankroll, 100 bi @ 5/10
lose 40 bi's drop to 3/6 (60,000)
lose 33.3 bi drop to 2/4 (40,000)
lose 50 bi drop to 1/2 (20,000)
lose 80 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000)

withstood 203.3 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's

120 bi BRM
100,000 bankroll, 100 bi @ 5/10
lose 28 bi's drop to 3/6 (72,000)
lose 40 bi drop to 2/4 (48,000)
lose 60 bi drop to 1/2 (24,000)
lose 100 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000)

withstood 228 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's

150 bi BRM
100,000 bankroll, 100 bi 5/10
lose 10 bi's drop to 3/6 (90,000)
lose 50 bi drop to 2/4 (60,000)
lose 75 bi drop to 1/2 (30,000)
lose 130 bi drop to .5/1 (4,000)

withstood 265 bi downswing
playing 100nl with 40 bi's