Mattiesmat study center

Yesterday I played a pretty interesting hand. I just joined the table and had only played a couple of hands. I raised one hand and villain (from this hand) squeezed on the BTN. Right away I catogarized him as aggressive and an aggressive 3-bettor. Then a few hands later this hand came up. My thoughts are below.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold’em – 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $197.95
UTG: $51.15
Hero (CO): $102.55
BTN: $153.65
SB: $125.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q T
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.65, 1 fold, SB raises to $6.65, 1 fold, Hero calls $5

Flop: ($13.80) T 9 4 (2 players)
SB bets $8.60, Hero calls $8.60

Turn: ($31.00) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $12.50, Hero calls $12.50

River: ($56.00) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $24.50, Hero folds

Final Pot: $56.00
SB wins $54.70
(Rake: $1.30)

Preflop
I normally fold pretty quick in this situation, but a few factors made me want to call: his image, deep stacks, my pretty cards, position and last but not least I wanted to learn from this hand. I talked about the hand with jjd and he commented: “bad mattiesmat, adjusting too soon on weak reads = spew” and I think he has a good point. My read was based on 1 hand and I had no other specific reads or stats on him. And if my read is wrong which is very possible then I’m getting absoluty crushed by his 3bet range. Also I kind of overrated my hand. I though QTs did pretty well against a fairly wide 3bet range, but I stoved it and I seem to be a 2:1 dog:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.711% 32.83% 01.88% 71403329 4079956.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 65.289% 63.41% 01.88% 137899367 4079956.00 { 99+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo, QJo }

So yeah it is probably better to fold, especially if his range could be tighter. That said we are deep, I can make straight flushes and I have position, so it can’t be terrible to call.

Flop
I wasn’t sure what to think about this flop. I had top pair so I guess it is a relative good flop for my hand, but it is still a trouble flop, because in best case scenario he still has quite a bit of equity with a heart, overcards and straight draws. Another good point jjd mentioned was that pretty much any flop where I flop a pair is a trouble flop, because I can never feel totally happy with a pair and I am almost never able to stack off. At the time I thought I was a favourite over his range with TP here, but I seem to overrate my hand:

Board: Th 9h 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.471% 42.93% 02.55% 48446 2872.50 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 54.529% 51.98% 02.55% 58669 2872.50 { 99+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo, QJo }

Because he is probably cbetting 100% and we get decent odds I decided to call here. Antoher thing that makes this marginal is that even though we get good enough odds, there will be a lot of bad cards and tough decisions and we could be drawing dead, especially if my read is off and he’s only valuebetting.

Turn
The turn was a pretty good card for me. It didn’t help many hands of him and my equity increased quite a bit vs the draws I thought. He also bet pretty small so I was more than happy to call here. However I think I overvalued my hand again. Because the 9 is pretty much a blank and it is a draw heavy board and I called both pre and on the flop I don’t think he will bluff and bet all of his range on the turn. I think he will only bet the turn with value hands TP+ or with good draws with a heart. Against that range I am a 2:1 dog again:

Board: Th 9h 4h 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.972% 30.59% 02.38% 875 68.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 67.028% 64.65% 02.38% 1849 68.00 { 99+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, ATs-A9s, KhQh, KhJh, KTs, QhJh, QTs, JTs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQh, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh, QcJh, QdJh, QhJc, QhJd, QhJs, QsJh }

Because he bet so small I think we can still call here and hope for a save river.

River
Often I read and hear people say something like: if you call the turn you should also call the (blank) river. Rodolphe also said this to me often when we were discussing hands and often he had a point, because if the river is a blank then equities don’t change much (or get better vs draws) and if you are good on the turn you probably also are on the river. However I always found this reasoning a bit simplistic and flawed and I think this hand is a good example. The reason this reasoning doesn’t always hold up is that although the equities against the his turn range don’t change much, his range might change on the river. For example in this hand I thought he would continue semi-bluffing the turn with a lot of good draws, but on the river I think he will just give up with those on a blank card, which is not a good bluff card and after I called him three times. So I think his range on the river is a value range and has us crushed and we should therefore just fold, even though it it seems like a good card for us. Summary
The most important thing to learn from this hand is that we need a better read to justify our play than just one or two hands. With my read and the range I gave for villain on all the streets it might seem I played the hand fine, although preflop, the flop and turn were marginal, BUT if my read was incorrect I could be making big mistakes. So best case scenario I am making slightly but marginal +EV decisions (postflop) and worst case scenario (which isn’t so unlikely) where my read is off and his range is much tighter I am getting valuetowned and I am spewing like crazy.

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