Weekly Video Series: The Mathematics of NLHE by WiltonTilt
Recent News: Okay I haven’t really been on the ball with keeping up on this, but it seems I have generated my own little piece of news. Today I will be taking my 3rd shot at the Sunday Million on Stars, qualified last night in a double shootout where I really felt I had a damn good edge on the majority of the villains I faced. I almost got screwed on it due to a horrific call station moron to my left. He accumulated like an 11k stack at 100/200 with me at 2k and other villain at 1k or less, and for some reason wasn’t open shoving like 100% or something. It was bad. The other villain was roller coastering a ton and just trying to HAND me the ticket while this foolish son of a beach refused to take care of it. Finally the last hand was idiot call station w/ AK v idiot folds too much w/ K6ss and it came about as safe as you can ask. So today, hopefully, I’ll be running a nice new year start to the life! I promise to be a little bit less self centered on this on Tuesday’s blog.
So Sunday is about setting goals for myself and updating how I am going about achieving these goals. Also if I decided to abandon them at all, like if I feel they are pulling from my ability. So onto the goals!
First goal this week will be to make sure I am pushing the 6 hours a day of cash game grinding. I know this sounds light to you super grinders, but this is a high bar for even me. Ontop of that I do have a part time job that eats 20 hours a week, so this puts me at roughly a 62 hour work week. The plan is going to be grinding 5 days Stars at NL25 and 2 days on Tilt at NL10. Tilt will only last until I can setup/clear my First Deposit bonus there. (I’ve never deposited because I really dislike the site and how horribly they run business regarding rakeback. Only depositting when I get $600 available to obviously take advantage of the bonus, then I’ll probably move off site or keep a small amount for donkaments there.) So until I get the bonus setup on Stars first and then setup for Tilt probably near February I will be focusing on Stars and NL25 mainly.
The second goal will be to keep up on updating this blog. Part of this is to help refine my communication a bit, another part of it is to just get crap out of my head, and the last is to let everyone in on how this entire experience goes as I attempt to turn poker into a living. Apart of this goal is also to make sure I fulfill my ideas of how to approach this blog fully, not half assing some here and there without some sort of very important reason.
I am sure I will assign more goals that are already somewhat in place, but I wanna build this list slowly, no reason to just switch every gear in the first day and burn out before week one even ends. Others will be concerning my health/working out, others will be special training sessions, and many other kinds of goodies to come! Also props to anyone that can name the animated series that the subject line was today, and most likely will be referenced frequently in the subject line!
Okay so there’s a couple specific hands to highlight, and they aren’t really focused around me or how I played but a read I had on the guy who folds too much mentioned earlier and some plays you should NOT be making. I can’t explain the exact reasoning why these plays are terrible as I am not a huge ICM freak and all that, I just know they are severe mistakes because of the bubble factor involved has to be pretty much huge. Answers to questions are going to be at the very bottom.
The first hand is going to be where I exploited this -EV tendancy of the villain and exploited it w/ a hand that I pretty much hate to play but felt it was good enough. This villain has essentially raised 100% BvB situations realizing I knew how to fold.
PokerStars Game #37569086312: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:49:10 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2050 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (10114 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (2836 in chips)
KnighofNii: posts small blind 100
MasterAsylum: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [2c 2d]
Bumpers251: folds
KnighofNii: raises 400 to 600
MasterAsylum: raises 1450 to 2050 and is all-in
Q1: Now if you’re in the villain’s spot here, what do you feel you should do?
For this hand the setup is a little like this… Bumpers has been pretty weak and passive for the most part, he’s not even using more than minraises on a pretty consistent basis (This can be okay if stacks are a bit deeper and you’re using it to steal more often and are succeeding doing so, but usually you’re making a mistake here. That is especially true when the stacks are so shallow.) Also to follow it, his flop bets were pretty meager, minbetting a ton almost all the time. I was not able to formulate a read on this meaning weakness or strength, I assume weakness.
PokerStars Game #37569150848: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:51:53 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2550 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (10814 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (1636 in chips)
Bumpers251: posts small blind 100
KnighofNii: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [2s 8s]
MasterAsylum: folds
Bumpers251: raises 200 to 400
KnighofNii: calls 200
-
FLOP * [Ah Jd 3d]
Bumpers251: checks
KnighofNii: bets 400
Bumpers251: calls 400
-
TURN * [Ah Jd 3d] [Kd]
Bumpers251: checks
KnighofNii: checks
-
RIVER * [Ah Jd 3d Kd] [6h]
Bumpers251: bets 200
KnighofNii: calls 200
Q2: When did who misplay and how poorly? Hint, hand is almost irrelevant at the point this comes up, not entirely but damn near close. (For you technical NITs, we’re looking at likely hand strength vs not exact hand or really a specific range.)
After that hand, this comes up… I really hate bumpers, I swear to god this is the worst player ever and he’s driving me insane, but w/e.
PokerStars Game #37569160383: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:52:17 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2550 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (11814 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (636 in chips)
KnighofNii: posts small blind 100
MasterAsylum: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [8d Tc]
Bumpers251: folds
KnighofNii: raises 436 to 636 and is all-in
Q3: Should we call here? Why/why not?
STOP SCROLLING HERE TO AVOID EXPOSING ANSWERS IF YOU REALLY CARE THAT MUCH!
STOP SCROLLING HERE TO AVOID EXPOSING ANSWERS IF YOU REALLY CARE THAT MUCH!
STOP SCROLLING HERE TO AVOID EXPOSING ANSWERS IF YOU REALLY CARE THAT MUCH!
STOP SCROLLING HERE TO AVOID EXPOSING ANSWERS IF YOU REALLY CARE THAT MUCH!
A1: If you feel confident enough to be raising +20% of your stack, you really should be thinking ahead for the price you need to call, especially since the villain’s stack is nearly irrelevant here as my stack is shorter and is the effective stack size. You’ve put in 30% of the effective stack and then I shove over. That makes the pot 2650 and you only need to call 1450 giving you just a bit under 2:1 odds. Now, a lot of people would naturally hop into the “Only need 33% to call†and that’s usually a pretty standard easy call for a lot of people. Lets look at it a bit more though! I can’t figure out bubble factors that well myself, I blame the transition to cash game stalling that lesson, but I am figuring it should be pretty sick high right now since 3rd is $35 and 1/2 is $215 value, so I’m going with a 1.7 bubble factor. That means you actually need 56% equity to call. He’s put me on a fairly narrow range to be shoving with since I’ve given up a considerable amount of blinds to his raising, this is where exploiting kind of came into play. 22 was probably not a hand he’s giving me credit for. I’m going to assign the two ranges I feel are most likely here.
Villain’s range:
22+,A2s+,K6s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,63s+,52s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o
Our range:
77+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o
These are both fairly wide ranges and I may be off(Feel free to input here all you’d like, I’m certainly not perfect.) This villain’s equity given that range vs our range is a roughly 40-45% making him a dog and not receiving the equity needed to make this call properly. Folding is the right play assuming these ranges are pretty decently accurate. Villain folds, Hero’s resteal succeeds. And admittedly, even if I add in the PPs I am not actually exploitting as the same situation arises w/ roughly 45% equity for our villain. See, not always right; but it does make my play okay! WOOOO! Dumb luck! Full HH:
PokerStars Game #37569086312: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:49:10 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2050 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (10114 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (2836 in chips)
KnighofNii: posts small blind 100
MasterAsylum: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [2c 2d]
Bumpers251: folds
KnighofNii: raises 400 to 600
MasterAsylum: raises 1450 to 2050 and is all-in
KnighofNii: folds
Uncalled bet (1450) returned to MasterAsylum
MasterAsylum collected 1200 from pot
MasterAsylum: doesn’t show hand
-
SUMMARY *
Total pot 1200 | Rake 0
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (big blind) collected (1200)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (small blind) folded before Flop
A2: This is a whole plethora of ugly! The minraise is standard, so I can’t really hate on that from bumpers. The call is pretty much terrible. People, putting in 25% of your stack and having fold ANYWHERE in your plan is basically a terrible line. 25% of your stack in when you’re a whopping 8bb deep is freaking awful. Okay so flop comes down, the preflop raiser doesn’t cbet a very common continuation bet textured flop, so Knigh puts another 25% of his stack in, and gets called. We check the turn, then call the river bet. The flop makes it pretty clear we have a pair, and if this wasn’t the kind of flop we were hoping for then why the HELL are we calling off this much of our stack preflop? Why the HELL are we calling the river if we don’t bet the turn? This villain is repping a pair, and an ace rag hand is entirely likely, we are not representing anything better and then pay off. People, this is terrible. 10% of your stack goes in you better really be considering where you’re going, once you put 1/3 of your stack in you need a VERY, VERY big read to justify folding. After 50%, you’re making a horrific losing play by folding here. This is so bad I received a comment from Josh along the lines of, “Knigh is trying to hand you that ticket.†And he WAS! Full HH:
PokerStars Game #37569150848: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:51:53 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2550 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (10814 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (1636 in chips)
Bumpers251: posts small blind 100
KnighofNii: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [2s 8s]
MasterAsylum: folds
Bumpers251: raises 200 to 400
KnighofNii: calls 200
-
FLOP * [Ah Jd 3d]
Bumpers251: checks
KnighofNii: bets 400
Bumpers251: calls 400
-
TURN * [Ah Jd 3d] [Kd]
Bumpers251: checks
KnighofNii: checks
-
RIVER * [Ah Jd 3d Kd] [6h]
Bumpers251: bets 200
KnighofNii: calls 200
-
SHOW DOWN *
Bumpers251: shows [5h As] (a pair of Aces)
KnighofNii: mucks hand
Bumpers251 collected 2000 from pot
-
SUMMARY *
Total pot 2000 | Rake 0
Board [Ah Jd 3d Kd 6h]
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (small blind) showed [5h As] and won (2000) with a pair of Aces
Seat 10: KnighofNii (big blind) mucked [Jh 9c]
A3: This spot is marginal according to Alex. I trust him, he’s pretty much an ICM freak/machine. With the fact I felt Bumpers was sucking so bad he was going to lose the ticket for me and Knigh was trying to give it I felt I needed to take the 2:1 shot here and take a shot to just end it there before Bumpers screwed me. Outside of that folding is probably just fine for the same reasons. Open for opinions. Full HH:
PokerStars Game #37569160383: Tournament #225869477, $10.70+$1.00 USD Hold’em No Limit – Match Round II, Level VI (100/200) – 2010/01/03 0:52:17 ET
Table ‘225869477 1’ 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (2550 in chips)
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (11814 in chips)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (636 in chips)
KnighofNii: posts small blind 100
MasterAsylum: posts big blind 200
-
HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to MasterAsylum [8d Tc]
Bumpers251: folds
KnighofNii: raises 436 to 636 and is all-in
MasterAsylum: calls 436
-
FLOP * [5s Ac 6s]
-
TURN * [5s Ac 6s] [9c]
-
RIVER * [5s Ac 6s 9c] [4s]
-
SHOW DOWN *
KnighofNii: shows [Jh Qc] (high card Ace)
MasterAsylum: shows [8d Tc] (high card Ace – lower kicker)
KnighofNii collected 1272 from pot
-
SUMMARY *
Total pot 1272 | Rake 0
Board [5s Ac 6s 9c 4s]
Seat 6: MasterAsylum (big blind) showed [8d Tc] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 7: Bumpers251 (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 10: KnighofNii (small blind) showed [Jh Qc] and won (1272) with high card Ace