maglame's blog

Not many days ago I was cruising along at NL 50. I felt invulnerable. “What is this 'variance' everybody keeps bitching about?” I certainly wasn't experiencing it – or at least that's what I thought. Life was easy, and I was a lock to make NL 100 by the end of the year.

Right now I'm staring at a steep green mountain wall, reaching all the way to the sky. I wonder what it looks like from the top, I somehow didn't remember to take a look down while I was up there. I have to wonder what went wrong, and if I could somehow have stayed on that light green – almost transparent – line that continues through the air, where the mountain side plummets to the ground.

I shouldn't have withdrawn so much, forcing myself to play on an ever shorter bankroll. I shouldn't have kept playing that night, it was so obvious I was tilted. And I shouldn't have let myself believe I was God's gift to poker. That's what really broke me. The biggest hit wasn't to my bankroll, it was to my ego.

Have you ever been punched so hard in the stomach you couldn't breathe? Have you ever felt your legs helplessly struggle to keep you from falling over, only to crumble like paper? I have, and I remember it as a moment of clarity. I don't really know how to explain it, but it's something about pain that makes everything feel that much more real. I hope this set-back has been a punched-in-the-stomach type of experience for me. It's made me face some of my poker demons, and it has made me seriously reconsider what is the true reach of my ability.

In practice my efforts to analyze and improve my game amount to one thing: I have become a nit. It might just be an irrational response to feeling less confident, but there is something to be said for playing tighter during a down-swing anyway. This is not a time where I particularly feel like taking every little edge I can find, potentially putting myself at risk of actually playing losing poker. It's not a time to improve on the creative and maniacal side of my poker game. It's a time to be solid. It's a time to work on the fundamentals, to rebuild confidence, and to rebuild my bankroll.

Though, I do have to admit it sucks to play NL 10 again.

Not putting in enough volume is really hurting my chances at making it to the mid stakes. As always I find myself with very little to do, and I still shy away from playing a session. If there was no money involved I would play all the time. Here are my reasons not to play:

1. I've been winning lately. I expect to lose sooner or later.
   
2. I've been losing lately. I'm not confident in my game.
   
3. I've been breaking even lately. I expect to lose sooner or later, and I'm not confident in my game.

So, how can I get in more volume? There is no scenario where I'm fired up to play. Not being results oriented, not feeling entitled to anything, and knowing that in the long run hard work pays off. If anyone can figure out how to do it - please share your secret with me! For now, I've noticed that once I'm more comfortable at a stake, and my bankroll is a bit deeper, I behave more rationally. This might be an argument for stricter bankroll management. Or maybe I just need to stop being such a damn nit.

I'm currently playing on a stake. A friend has put up ten buy-ins for 25 NL 6-max at FullTilt. I can bust the roll and owe him nothing, and he keeps half my profits for himself. It's a good deal, but I really want to be moving up, and playing someone else's money just isn't as motivating. That said, I just hit a milestone with my stake. I currently have a little more than $400 in my account. All it took was one good session and some rakeback, and the roll shot from $250 to $400 in two days. Breaking even for some time before that was less fun.

Hopefully I can get to $500 without a sweat. Then the question becomes if he lets me have a stab at 50 NL, and if he's not, is he going to let me do it once I get to $750? If I get to $750, and I can't take a stab at 50 NL, I'm tempted to cash out my 10 buy-ins for 25 NL, and play my own money again. I might attempt to get a 50 NL stake through twoplustwo, but I doubt I'll get that having only played 25 NL.

It’s time I get back to bloging, and why not make it easier on all of us and just throw out some pictures?

This is my time at NL2 and NL5. I now consider myself done with these stakes. Hopefully I wont be forced to move back down.

And here is 98% of my new HUD. I changed a few tiny details but whatever.

“Give me a place to stand, and I shall move the earth.”

Archimedes

You’ve probably heard someone refer to “leverage” when discussing big bet poker. I certainly have, and it’s about time I figured out what it’s all about.

Essentially, leverage is when a bet is backed up by the promise of future bets. If I bet the turn, you may feel inclined to call with a marginal hand. You would certainly consider calling if this was the river. But because the river hasn’t been dealt yet, and because you’re afraid I’ll bet again, you might be more inclined to fold. This means that I have gained fold equity.

I can think of three things that contribute to your leverage.

1. That there is further action in the hand. You have no leverage when you bet the river. Your bet stands alone.
2. You also have no leverage when you bet all-in. There is no promise of future bets.
3. And lastly, you gain leverage when you are in position. If you check to me, I’m almost certainly betting!

We should then, consider what gives us more leverage in terms of which street we are on, how much chips we have behind, and if we are in position or not. What might not be obvious is what street we have the most leverage on. You might say it’s before the flop, because we have so many chips behind. But I’ll argue that it’s on the turn. In most hands the bets grow larger for every street. They start out small, before the flop, and increases rapidly all the way to the river. The river then, is where the really big bets are made. Considering this, you have the most leverage when you bet the turn. You are making a promise of a very big bet to come.

Leverage also applies to raising. Say I raise to three and a half big blinds, before the flop, and get re-raise to twelve. Now, when I 4-bet, I need to think about what I want my bet to accomplish. Really what I’m trying to do is to put my opponent in a position where he has to play for his entire stack. And to make this happen I really won’t have to make that large of a raise. If I raise it to 28 big blinds total, I have successfully applied leverage. My 28 big blinds bet is basically committing him to play for his entire stack, while I still have the option of folding.

I think that Archimedes guy was really on to something!

Today I was totally on my “A”-game. I was laying down pairs left and right. One player in particular was min-raising me every time we saw a flop together. I was, however, absolutely certain that he was simply running incredibly hot. Passive players don’t just all of a sudden turn aggressive. And certainly not so consistently. But then this hand came up, and I started levelling myself. Can he really have it every time?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold’em – 5 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $10.60
Hero (SB): $11.70
BB: $23.40
UTG: $6.15
CO: $14.30

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 7 A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 2 J A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.40) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $1.80, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($5.00) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80, BB raises to $5.60,

Obviously my play is horrible. The first mistake is calling the turn min-raise. I know I’m beat: this is a passive fish! But I have top pair and he’s been running over me, so I put away everything I know about poker and press the call button. Then I make two pair on the river. Well, I actually beat a lot of strong hands now. It’s not inconceivable that he has hands like strong aces in his turn value min-raising range. So I bet, expecting these hands to pay off. But he continues to tell me a story of a monster hand. He raises my turn bet! I really can’t even expect him to raise top top here. I’ve seen him only call river bets with sets and two pairs. He has me crushed!

Hero calls $2.80

Final Pot: $16.20
Hero mucks 7 A
BB shows J J (three of a kind, Jacks)
BB wins $15.40
(Rake: $0.80)

It’s not like it hasn’t been done before. Writing a blog about how you struggle at micro stakes poker is nothing new. What would be new, however, was if somebody actually read one of these blogs. I hope some day this blog could be an exception to that rule.

Because of this I wouldn’t dream of writing a blog for an audience. All I’m trying to say is that this blog is for me. I’m taking a page out of BalugaWhale’s book, and have decided to write about poker. Supposedly this will help you improve as a player. And as I’ve come to respect him immensely as a coach, watching his videos here at Deuces Cracked, I would be a fool not to follow his advice. But if somebody reads this, and hopefully finds it interesting, that would certainly be a huge plus.