You Couldn't Sell Two Copies if You Pressed a Double Album

The game now put forth is were faced with a bet say on the one street, presumably the turn and we dont quite have 33% equity to call a pot size bet, but figure we can get paid a decent portion of the time we hit. we aim to make our call profitable by making up for the lack of equity on the turn with equity gained on the river. heres my decision tree:

 im having problems with the DC blog posting jpeg images, but since im moving my blog over im fine with the large picture.

Note here everything is in terms of pot size: b1=Px and b2=Py.we make the bet sizes in terms of initial pot sizes and aim to figure out how big of a bet we must gain when we hit the river.

Step 1: determine EV (hit outs)
EV(hit outs)=f2(1+x) + (1-f2)(1+x+y)=1+x+y-f2*y

Step 2: Determine EV (call)
EV(call)=E(1+x+y-f2y)+(1-E)(-x)=2Ex+E-x+y(E(1-f2))

Step 3: compare when EV(call)>EV(fold)=0, here we will solve for y, the bet well gain on the future street
2Ex+E-x+y(E(1-f2))>0 yields

y> ((x/E)-[2x+1])/(1-f2), x,E,f2 [0,1]

i put y in these turns in order to clear up the numerator in terms of x as soon as equity is known. well have to judge the visibility of our draw as in PLO some people are afraid of the nuts. for instance well get more folds on a flush card than on a straightening card and its dependent on the villain and his hand when the board pairs.

were not quite done yet. we have to make sure we have y left in our stack. now since we solved everything in terms of pot size well have to make sure we have our stack in terms of pot size. this is simply the SPR or stack-to-pot ratio after our call of the initial bet= (S-b1)/P.

Thus if ((S-b1)/P)>y then a call is profitable and and go ahead and call. simplifying this or putting it in terms of big blinds yields (S-b1)>Py still holds true. note here in a pot limit game we would also need y</=(1+2x)

The drawback of taking this method is we are left putting things in bbs or spr which requires bringing back stack size. solving for it in terms of stack size trades the ease of  comparing stack size needed to stack size left for a slightly more complicated formula introducing a cross term making it a bit messy to deal with. in case youre interested in the formula:

in terms of stack size

y> ((x/E)-(1+F2*z+2x))/(1-f2), ill post a 3d graph once of the outcomes later after i move my blog to wordpress where it can hold them,

here we would need 1-x>y as a boundary (and in a pot limit game we would also need y</=(1+2x), note here the function of x is different although the values are the same) to show where its profitable to call because we have the required amount behind. note as the bet sizes get larger we may tred into a region where FE is somehow dependent on bet size, but thats for more concern later and more advance opponents, no need to worry about this until id guuess at least 200 or 400PLO

My last post on bet/call theory was a little duct taped toegether and left out some important concepts which i will address here. First we will aim to find the overall EV needed to do have both stacks go in the middle given the pot size and stack depth. then we will see the impact of bet folding and bet sizing has on our needed equity to call. lastly we will Lastly will will show the impact of P2 folding and any equity edge we have on later streets to paint a picture of the actual "game" being played.

The first step is draw a decision tree to show what all possible paths. here is the one i have drawn:

 

Note the payoff [y] is a nebulous concept i havent done much work on but it is player ones approximate EV on later streets given P2 calls. it is bounded [-1,1], one could look at it having a few components: skill advantage and chances of making mistakes on later streets. For instance huge draws will probably make way less mistakes (if any) on a drawy board while a strong made hand like top set or bare nut straight can make quite a few wrong plays later. The skill advantage i wouldnt put to any number until you're decidedly more skilled than you're opponents and you're dropping down.

From here we can make a few substitution to make game more analytical. 

1. B1+B2=S

2. B1=Sx

3. B2=S(1-x)

4. Sz=P

5. F2+R2+C2=1

6. R2=1-C2-F2, later we will see this is not needed but i am following the math i used.

in the above all S,x,F2,R2,C2 are bounded from [0,1]

the next step will be to subsititute in then divide through by S thus putting all payoffs in terms of percentages of inistial stack size.

the resulting tree:

 

Step 1: equity needed to bet/call

The first step in evaluating any game theory tree is to start at the last nodes and work backwards here its #2 on the raise branch, here well solve for the EV of a call. EV(call)=E[z+1}-[1-E]=E[z+2]-1. solving this yields the required equity needed to get stacks in the middle: E> 1/[z+2]. For example if we are in a 3bet pot where each player still have 100bb left and 25bb are in the middle z=25/100=0.25, thus the required equity to bet/call is E>1/2.25=4/9=0.4444. Therefore any equity over 44.44% will lets bet/call become a viable option.

Step 2: correcting for folding

Now we will analyze the #2 branch of Player 2's possible actions. What we do here is put the EV we just determined as the payoff for calling and then go through the same process as step 1.

Calculating EV (facing raise)=(1-F1)(E[z+2]-1)-F1*x

from here we can solve for F1 or E to determine when our expected value is greater than zero. Solving for F1 yields  confusing results as wed graph something showing us the more we fold the higher our EV. while this isnt untrue it doesnt yield anything illuminating. for those interested we determine when F1> (1-E[z+2])/((1-x)-E[z+2]) yields positive expectation. if one were to graph this theyed be looking at a picture showing whenever we fold more than this surface its +EV. I say this isn't too helpful as we could start folding just to fold to increase our folding percentage, it tells us nothing about our hand range composition.

solving for required Equities yield much more interesting results. E> (1-F1(1-x))/((1-F1)(z+2]). there are two ways to look at this equation. the first is to think how often youd fold a specific hand, or how often youd fold hand x when facing a raise. This is both a bit short sighted and too advanced for many beginners and intermediate players. at these levels people are mainly either they are or arent calling a raise, while those at higher limits will talk about folding some hands x% or y% of the time against the same villain. The equations main power comes from the second way to look at it. if we look at the overall picture for player one we see the more

here is a 3d graph of a 4spr situation where we bet and now have been raised. so the equation used is E> (1-F1(1-x))/((1-F1)(2.25)), whats a bit confusing about this graph is i used F1 on the x-axis and x on the y axis

the graph is a bit simplified of a situation because some raise size choices by villian will let him raise fold (especially if we bet < 1/3 pot or < 1/12 of our stack, but a simplifying assumption to get rid of these pesky situations is to say this graph assumes were getting called if there's room left to raise him and we can deal with the outlying bet sizes separately later. 
In this graph any space above the surface yields positive expectation for P1. we need to remember this is given weve already decided to bet, we get to choose the size. We can see the interesting behavior as we choose to bet larger and fold more often we actually need more equity when we decide to call in order to make up for lost equity when we fold. 
we look at the end behavior (when x or y = 0 ) we see the equities we found in step 1. both borders are @ E>1/(z+2). I find it very interesting that this is the minimum equity. that the more we fold the more equity we need when calling. my initial assumption was the corrections would have dipped our equity lower, not higher. to me this is close to mind blowing as i generally have good mathematical intuition. The goal is to make up huge chunks of equity by having large equity edges, not make our mistakes smaller by calling with closer odds more.
Note that this isn't equities needed to make the calls after betting, these are equities to bet/call with, so these are the required equities to begin betting with.
Step 3:
now we can condense the raising node down to just 1 payoff and evaluate the payoffs of each action of P2. Here's P1's tree:

Now well use the same steps as before using the numbered variables as percentages and bolded as payoffs.. From there i solved set greater than zero and solved for E. After A LOT of algebra i arrived at a neat little solution of the game.

The required equity to bet/call with is:

E> (R2[1-F1*(1-x)]-F2*z-C2*y)/((z+2)*(R2(1-F1)+F1))

 While this is a complicated solution we can analyze its meaning without graphs.  The higher our advantage on later streets and the more often villain calls, the lower our needed equity, the more often and larger the initial pot, the lower required equity we need. but the more p2 raises and more we fold the more equity we need while this is already known conceptually we can look at relative sizes to determine which have a larger impact. We can also see the impact of our hand type. if we have a made hand that plays worse (relatively) on drawy boards, taht will raise our needed equity to bet/call, while if we have the draw it actually lowers the equity.

From this equation we can actually see the strategy profiles emerge. for Player 2 his profile becomes (F2, R2, C2) and Player 1's strategy profile becomes (F1, x, W). W is actually a concept talked about but not quantified and that is his range of hands he does the actions with (in this case betting). for instance if a player is always bluffing, he cant be calling much if at all. its actually a concept that builds itstelf into the game at each stage, but we were able to factor out in the algebra because its the same everywhere. now it is these variables which we can categorize villains by and see very observant opponents change themselves and everyone adjusts.
there are also inputs into this game (z,y). Z is the inverse of the Spr and Y is the future street gain by player 1 or on the river, P1's equity v P2's calling range.
more to follow later as others ask questions and i find more detail to add.

It was brought to my attention earlier that one topic that should be discussed would facing a bet. some situations that first come to mind are a cbet in a 3b pot or facing a turn cbet, or even a river bet, somewhere where there wont be much room to play afterwards, thereby minimizing the impact of later streets.

The first step is to set up a theory tree or diagram soemthing like: 1. pot 2. p2 bets 3. p1 raises 4a. p2 folds (f2%), p1 wins B1+P 4b. p2 calls (1-f2)% 4b1. p1 wins e% winning [Stack+Pot] 4b2. p1 loses (1-e)% [-stack]

first things to do to make this analysis quick and smooth throughout all streets: 1. let Pot=stack*x=p=sz 2. b1=stack*x, 3. b2=s(1-x), let s,x,z [0,1] and then divide thru by s thus making every ev calculation outcome in % of stack, the stack considered would be the stack when facing b1 before any action has taken place. 

z is actually the inverse of the stack to pot ratio (SPR)

thus 4a. p2 folds (f2%), p1 wins [z+x] 4b1 [z+1], 4b2. [-1]

from here we start with p1's ev when called. (combination of 4b1 and 4b2)
ev(call)=E[1+z]-(1-E)=E[z+2]-2

now we find p1's ev when raising
ev(raise)=f2[z+x] + [1-f2)[E[z+2]-1], after some rearranging EV(raise)=f2[z+x+1-E[z+2]]+E[z+2]-1

since equity is easier to quantify than folding equity we will use equity as the variable to determine FE.
additionally due to prefering to lower variance we will take folding over raising when Ev=0, thus minimizing fluctuations.

F2=(1-E[z+2])/([1+x+z]-E[z+2]) with f2, E, z and x {0,1]

thus in the final equation z is the % of stack the pot is, then x is the raise size

here is an example supposing a 3bet pot and an SPR of 4. the various lines are for different bet1 sizes.

 

note that the graphs are for jamming over a bet, but with a 4spr and any bet smaller than pot initially means we cant actually jam over, but bet pot over leaving a little behind. so for pot limit games or for hands with little equity there is a small correction to be added in which i cant yet quantify, but conceptually the lower our equity the lower our needed FE because were not jamming over completely and it makes no sense to call any bet knowing we have 0% equity so it lowers the needed FE to ~66% (a pot raise (or [call+raise}/{pot+call+raise]) then quickly converging to the above lines

Here fold equity required is  on the y axis and Equity is on the x axis. the first thing that pots out is that all the lines converge on a point where we dont need any FE. that equity is (z)/(2z+1) This is the max equity required based on 1/spr alone.

next id like some people posting questions and suggestions for other graphs to post.

at first glance its interesting noting were going to need more than 50% FE since were used to analyzing bluffing spots when we are the first one to bet. but when we realize we have to put in the initial bet size adn then our raise on top, often this will be larger than the initial pot. for any pot size raised well need 2/3 FE or 66.666% FE, but what to make of the graphs showing we need higher? for those points with absolutely 0 FE folding to any raise size commits us to folding, but adding 1 or two outs quickly commits us to calling a small raise. so thus the true FE needed curve will bell out from 66% out to meet the curve, but this will occur quite quickly, so for under 10% equitiy one could assume 2/3 is needed, but it can commit us to calling a raise so be careful

often in any card game we are faced with situations or decisions where we know if were raised in a certain spot well be playing for stacks. For instance, imagine youre playing PLO and you've 3bet OOP and now flop a mediocre hand, what do to? if we think check/folding is out the the question, we have to evaluate the line bet/call line. I cant post a decision tree here as i dont know how to post charts. IF YOU KNOW HOW TO POST CHARTS TELL ME AND ILL MAKE IT EASY TO VISUALIZE.

1. Preflop pot [P] 2. P1 bets {B1] 3a. P2 folds F%, P1 wins [P] 3b. P2 raises [B2], P1 calls 3b1. P1 wins [P+B1+B2] E% of the time 3b2. P1 loses (1-E)% and wins -(B1+B2)

To make things easy we will now put each bet in terms of the Preflop pot size:
B1=Px, x domain [0,1]
B2=[P+2B1]y=[P+2Px]y, y [0,1] (again here it could in theory go up to the spr of the 2nd bet

a common term to come up in analysis will be [B1+B2]=Px+y[P+2Px]=x+y[1+2x]=z

now we will divide thru by P thus putting all bet sizes will be in terms of percentage of original pot
from here we will evaluate the win and loss outcomes:
Win: [1+x+y[1+2x]]=1+z
Loss: -[z]

evaluating EV of a call of raise
EV(call)=E[1+z]-[1-E][z]=E[1+2z]-z

evaluating original bet: this is the final EV of the overall bet/call line
EV[b1]=F+(1-F)[E[1+2z]-z]=F+E+2zE-EF-2zEF-z+zF

from here well solve for min Fold equity and Equity needed to bet/call

E>(z-F[1+2z])/([1+2z][1-f]) visible here: (y is the spr, X is the fold equity) (note: the graph is of the lower boundary surface, any point above this surface is +EV for us

here we can see the interaction of adding folding equity decreases the needed equity. We can quickly see how littel fold equity we need around the break-even point, for instance a hand with 37.5% equity against a range  and a 1.6 SPR only needs to fold out 4% of hands.

F>(z-E[1+2z})/([1+z]-E[1+2z]) visible here (y is the spr, X is the raw Equity

a thorough analysis demonstrates Z is the SPR before any action on the flop. We could probably stretch z to 6 seeing that then well be giving him 2/11 or ~18% on a call. so this holds when either villain is a nit who's never folding once he raises, or a smaller spr against another player.(higher spr would provide situations where our Equity becomes a function of SPR as the villain can raise/fold. but in in fact this analysis can play out for us if we were in his shoes.

From here we can see we've made a +EV line, showing when bet-calling gains chips, but can we improve on it? but how? a quick look will show if we're pure bluffing with 0 equity then its much better for us to bet/fold than to bet call any amount, can we incorporate that into what weve developed so far? To do that we must determine if we can bet/fold at any point to improve our EV.

Now we will determine the boundary between bet/folding and Bet/calling:

EV (B/c)= E(1+2z)(1-F) + F(1+2z) - z
EV (B/f)= F + (1-F)x, x is the same x from B1=Px, b1=x

now well had another option to our tree: 1. Preflop pot [P] 2. P1 bets {B1] 3a. P2 folds F%, P1 wins [P] 3b. P2 raises [B2], P1 calls 3b1. P1 wins [P+B1+B2] E% of the time 3b2. P1 loses (1-E)% and wins -(B1+B2) 3b3. P1 Folds F1% and wins -[b1]

our first step is to determine when EV (b/c) > EV (b/f): from above: E(1+2z)(1-F) + F(1+2z) - z > F + (1-F)x

now we can do some algebra and solve for E and F. these will be from the same equation so the equation for one will contain the other term
E> [(x+z)-F(x+2z)]/[(1+2z)(1-F) and
F>[(x+z)-E(1+2z)]/[(x+2z)-E(1+2z)]

now with both x and z in the equation we have to substitute in for z=x+y(1+2x), since we cant use a 1/2 psb on the turn to get a 4spr stack in by being raised once.

E>[(2x+y(1+2x)-F(3x+2y(1+2x))]/[(1+2x)(1+2y)(1-F)]
F>[((2x+y(1+2x))-E(1+2x)(1+2y)]/[(3x+2y(1+2x))-E(1+2x)(1+2y)], in these equations x,y,F ~ [0,1], i am using ~ as the domain symbol

thus we have solved for the border between bet/folding and bet/calling. therefore the b/f range wrt E is [0,x(2(1+y)-F(3-4y)]+y(1-F)]/[(1+2x)(1+2y)(1-F)]] and the b/c range is [x(2(1+y)-F(3-4y)]+y(1-F)]/[(1+2x)(1+2y)(1-F)], 1] and

the b/f range wrt F is [0, [(2x(1+2y)+y)-E(1+2x)(1+2y)]/[x(3+4y)+2y-E(1+2x)(1+2y)]] and the b/c range is [[(2x(1+2y)+y)-E(1+2x)(1+2y)]/[x(3+4y)+2y-E(1+2x)(1+2y)], 1].

Also note how this graphs don't care about board texture, all that it takes to make this graph is a decision about bet sizing. we can take the same graph to represent a much tough board texture say 9c8c4d, if we choose again an 80% psb on the flop we have the same graph. now if we only have say a 10% FE, the Required equity to b/c is now 48%. Thus nearly everytime were betting to bet call, we almost have to be a favorite!

the "shame" of these equations are they are 4d, thus i cant represent anything visually except for specific representations, thus the best way to go about this is to either pick a bet size on the flop or turn you want and look at the how bet sizing on the other street affects the E,F variables.

the equations for F and E should be used in concert as once one determines the equity for certain situations and the boarder btwn b/f and b/c we then play around with different ranges on the flop or turn to see how much we can move F.

EXAMPLE: lets say we 3b preflop and had and A flop so we know our FE is relatively high, lets approximate 40%, and were betting 80% of pot, leaving a psb behind. putting x=0.8 and y=1 into E>[(2x+y(1+2x)-F(3x+2y(1+2x))]/[(1+2x)(1+2y)(1-F)]  we reduce the equation to E>(4.2-F*(7.6))/(7.8*(1-F)). from here we can graph this equation in 2D we can see the break even Equity w/ 40% FE is 26% equity. Above 26% equity we should be Bet/calling, below 26% equity we should be bet/folding.

Two math things first, the domains i have given in the later formulas for x,y are [0,1] and that goes up to an spr of 4, we could probably stretch this out to 6 by letting y go slightly over 1. i cut the domain at 1 becauase i was working with this for PLO, but in theory x,y can go from [0,oo) to incorporate themselves of NL games where overbetting can be used. we must be careful with letting y stray too far as then we allow for other lines available such as min-raises or calling.

The two easiest places to visualize these equations being applicable are on the flop in a 3b pot or on the turn in a single raised pot. ill be making some of my own charts once i get my office suite up and running, have fun with finding your own borders.

 Excluding the bottom right square thats yellow under the curve, the entire yellow region is the bet/call region. thus anytime we estimate our Equity over ~26% w/ 40% fold equity its an automatic bet/call. the Peach portion is the bet/fold region, if we end up having only a gutshot and a backdoor flushdraw (~15%) its a bet/fold. but notice how quickly we pick up equity as we pick up pieces. add another gut shot (double gutshot) and your at ~25%, even discounting if your against sets youre still up to 18-20%. add another bdfd and youre at ~24%, we can see how quickly this adds up. Remember, this graph is not an end all/be all. this is for our specific bet sizing. if we change our bet sizing to half pot, thus x=0.5 and y=1.75 (we allow y to venture up around 1.8 to 2 as long as z stays under 6). we see the needed equity jumps up to 31-32%

Example 2: lets say again we decide on a certain flop texture, say KT6r we decide to bet 80% of pot on the flop, setting up a the last bet of 1psb.

here in example two (can someone tell me how to enlarge font? i really dont know how to do this)

in example two we see the folding equity vs raw equity graph of the same situation where we posit to make a n 80% pot bet on the flop, leaving p2 to decide if he wants to shove it on the flop or call it on the turn. it in fact is the first graph rotated around the line y=x since our x, y didnt change. I like this version of the graph and equations better personally because the equity contain F, a quite subjective term, where we were guessing, hoping to be close to the right answer. here we can paint a clearer picture with the equity in the equation as we can pick pieces to add to improve our hand or subtract them as we wish to see the resulting effect

Its interesting to me to see our equity ever have to be over 50% as to me it should cap out at 50%, IM GOING TO INVESTIGATE THIS FURHTER AND DETERMINE IF THIS IS AN ERROR ON MY PART OR AN UNEXPECTED FINDING.

note: the reasons behind this become clearer when we post the fold equity vs equity graph. although we may be a slight favorite when we have say 52% equity, we actually make more by him folding, but theres a region from 50% to y% (specific to each set of (x,y, E)) that although we dont mind a call, wed like a fold even better, even though were a favorite, our opponent simply makes a larger mistake by folding and giving up his equity than by calling.

part of this may be a simplification from a 4d problem to a 2d problem, but i am accounting for our decisions, x, y vs  hand properties, E, F

heres a graph assuming z=(spr)=4 showing the effect of various bet sizing and its effect on the bet/call-bet/fold border.

 

after putting more thought into it i realized x and y need not be ratios of pot bets strictly between [0,1]. if you take x as the % of pot of the initial bet and y as the % of pot left behind to be put in later, we get a clearer picture of how the money left behind impacts equity and FE needed as most bets in PLO are not pot, but we simply use the assumption that up to a certain spr, a repot of our cbet means theyre not folding and we get the above graphs.

ill come back later and post graphs for z=2, 2.5, 3, 3,5 and 4 and we can get an even more detailed view

 

recently i was asked to make a math blog of PLO/poker situations instead of cluttering the forums with the posts :)

The first topic is going to do with handling a 4bet when we have been 3b by a nit who we can put squarely on AA** (later we can expand slightly to see everything changes when we add another hand or 2 to his range).

this thread initially inspired the blog: http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/27-Pot-Limit-Omaha/topics/182671-a-math-problem-AAxx-vs-TT#posts-1489651

wherein it can be seen i hijack it, then went to make my own thread explaining what i said seen here: http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/27-Pot-Limit-Omaha/topics/183391-a-math-problem-a-math-blo#posts-1495631.

Today i was researching/reading 2p2and came across the situation again, this time with a wonderful explanation about how to go thru and approximate our equities and times we hit the flop. the 2p2 thread can be seen here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/38/small-stakes-pl-omaha/calling-4-bet-pf-plo-396202/index2.html where it was linked over to a bluefire where i saw my previous math simplified making the solutions clearer: http://www.bluefirepoker.com/thread.aspx?thrid=1186

To summarize the question was if were facing a 4b w/ TT55 which is best: calling or folding here?

first i will go into the math and let it tell us when we can call, getting the general solution. then ill demonstrate how to obtain approximate values for the two variables dependent on our hand (and thus things we cant do anything about). ill take the last bit as a property of the hand and show how to then find the maximum 3 bet size that makes a call of the 4bet profitable. I am to take the discussion from "is this a call or fold given the hand properties?" to "is my 3bet small enough to call the 4bet?" then finally to "how much can i 3bet to keep a call of a 4bet profitable?"

using benve79's formula:  EVpost = CALL% * [ 2*stack * AvEq - flop shove ]

k To explain the above equation: hes determining the postflop EV by determining our Expected return on a flop call (2*stack*avEq) then subtracting what we have left to call on the flop [flop shvoe]. this quantity represents our average profit on the flop given we called. then we multiply by the number of times we call [CALL%] to get our overall average profit. from here we are to compare this to the amount we had to call preflop. if our average profit of calling the 4b is greater than the amount it took to call, then we profit by calling the for bet.

Going off of this, and my mathematical background i decided to subtract the call amount from this total and just look for a number >0 to show profit.  AMT call=B(4)-B(3). here B(n)= bet size of Nth bet.

EV(call 4bet)=CALL% * [ 2*stack * AvEq - flop shove ]-[B(4)-B(3)]

from here ill go into my notation:
P= probability we call a flop shove
S= effective stack sizes
E= AvEq
S-B(4)= flop shove
D=dead money= (flats+ blinds)

substituting these in we get

EV(call 4 bet) = P*[2*S*E-[S-B(4)]}-[B(4)-B(3)], now we need to establish a relaitonship between B(4) and B(3). here because we know our opp has AA** he will bet pot to minimize his possible losses on the flop we get B(4)=3*B(3)+D. now plug this in

EV(call 4 bet) = P*[2*S*E-[S-[3*B(3)+D]]-[3*B(3)+D-B(3)]

now with simplification we finally obtain

B(3)[3*P-2] + P*[S(2*E-1)+D]-D=EV (calling a 4bet), when this number is Greater than zero its proper to call the 4bet.

now for a mathemtical trick, im going to divide thru by S putting all bets as a % of stack, this not only reduces the number of variables, but makes it applicable to more situations.

b(3)[3*P-2] + P*[(2*E-1)+d]-d>0, note that everything in lower case is now as a % of stack

now to use this equation we simply plug in the amount of times were calling flops, our average equity and the amount of dead money, and our 3bet size. note of all these factors, only our 3bet size is the one we can control, thus i find it more useful  solve for b(3)

b(3) < [(1/(2-3P))*[P*(2*E-1)-(1-P)*d]

now since this says we can only call if our 3bet was less than x% of our stack, this allows for a much easier comparison.

Next i will show you how to determine E and P.

whether you can call a 4b is strictly related to how much you 3bet!

the week was a bit bleh, i felt i got caught up in what i call "table/game selection" and i ended up playing too many tables for a while. i have really started to notice my redline dropping precipitously. over the last week it was ~ -16bb/100. while it is 50plo i still think this is a huge leak. it may stem from not needing to bluff or valuebet as thin, but i feel in a lot of spots i;m just giving up, while not firing a second barrel, so my cbets may be too light. or i may try to bluff in the wrong spots and have to fold to a raise.

after some self reflection some things id like to work on in the following weeks:

1. Play less tables. i dont need to always be in the best games. while do that may increase my winrate when i finally pare down to 4 tables its having a deleterious effect on my redline and learning curve. i find myself repeatedly bluffing in the same spots or not paying attention to those who always show up with AAxx, and i have to call a 4bet/stack off lighter.

2.  Focus more on playing, stop having aim.skype/ firefox/pandora/tv on, i need to concentrate.

3. quit my sessions sooner when i am losing AND when i am winning. i found often this week i just gave money (although i may have won it on coinflips) right back. be it by beats or spew, i feel i still get a little bit of winners tilt and thats when i tend to get the trickiest.  if i notice im doing that ill take a 30minute break. I have also instituted a stricter 3BI stop-loss for an immediate hr break, at any point, not just when im down 3bi. and im thinking of putting a 6bi stoploss on for a 3hr timeout, to use to review. for the day.

while the above may see like a bit, those are my goals before i sit down. some work i would like to do away from the tables as homework would be to talk about spots such as the following:

1. adding value hands in my calling a c/r range. while not needed primarily at 50PLO i feel quite strongly that the hands i only peel a c/r with are medium draws or hands that will fold to another barrel, making it quite easy to play against me. I feel i am too light here at times and when people who may be tricky and raise a flop i cant be that nutted on, can just take advantage of me.

2. Inducing bluffs. i seem to be going about doing this wrong and it may be a sample size issue, but my OOP bet-bet-check when the draw misses seems to be see thru at times. perhaps on the turn ill try betting 1/2pot and giving up, but that seems to give a good price. i think a better line may be to bet 1/3 or 1/4 pot on the river to try to induce raise, or i can ID spots where i am polarized and bet pottish more often.

3. checking/checking back in 3bet pots: right now i feel so airy when i do this OOP for sure, and i feel IP i mainly do this with bd equity, but that leaves me feely quite airy and susceptible to a bet or a raise on the turn. again i think its a spot where im isolating 99% of my marginal strength range on the flop. i also have no understanding of c/r'ing or being c/r'd in a 3b pot as i tend to lead most everything.

4. more balanced/not as drawy of cr'ing ranges esp on turns, i caught myself today w/ a pair and a wrap ch-raising 200bb deep  and got snapcalled by top 2, this tells me i am not balanced when cb/chk

5. understanding what makes a flop//board texture worthy of a c/r and using it in game. i just cbet a 982, 2tone board OOP and after thinking about it i didnt know if it woudl be a board to c/r since i could get 1/3 my stack in. after even more thought this example sounds worse, as i have 1bet left and can make qutie a few mistakes on straightening cards. . perhaps OPs+FD would be better as it preserves equity on the turn

6. getting a better feel for how to play when i know ppl can c/r b/c its hard to be nutted. playing an overpr or bare fd fast would seem to fall for what they want, but it is capitalizing on dead equity.

7. i should be using my block bets more efficiently and not calling when i donk, its simple, im betting to not call a shove, thats it, if i get shsoved/raised it makes it an easy fold.

while in sesh review/posting about this hand, i learned something that wasnt even commented about. Planning future streets.

This is the main reason i want to take ~30-60min a day and pick a few hands and plan out my lines on various turns/rivers.

heres the hand in quesiton:

Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 699761
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $60.50
CO: $95.50
BTN: $174.00
SB: $96.30
Hero (BB): $54.15
UTG: $296.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J J A 5
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40

Flop: ($2.95) 2 8 J (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($9.95) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.00, Hero raises to $33.50, CO calls $25.50

River: ($76.95) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $16.05, CO calls $16.05

Final Pot: $109.05
CO shows 4 9 3 T
Hero shows J J A 5
CO wins $106.95
(Rake: $2.10)

i thought this was somewhat standard until i realized later (on the toilet no less), that i really dont like my lead here without backup, as i have to dodge 9/T/7/Q/hearts twice, while not being able to leverage my stack before the river.

The line i took was meant to do that, but i ended up leaving 33bb behind, which ended up being free food for a hit draw on the most obvious card where i have to be good like 1/6 1/7 times, which i think i never am.

A much better line here w/ naked topset/no blockers here is to aim to c/r pot on the flop, and pot safe turns. essentially if he bets ~3 on the flop ill have ~5 left on the river making it meaningless. while this line seemed quite similar to the line i took on the hand in quesiton, it is no where close under further review.

not only do i have to hope he bets the turn when i check to him (which i was pretty confident he was going to given this player), but i have to hope he picks an amount close to pot so i can make the river a meaningless bet, which he did. Also i have bloated the pot here to where we are playing a fairly medium pot and it will attract some interest, making future bets (and mistakes on both parts) even larger. On top of that, i have to dodge all the outs mentioned above on the turn, but here i had to dodge them TWICE, where if i c/r teh flop, i only have to dodge 1 turn card and can easily give up if the cards hit. which is the big difference maker. if he doesnt bet flop, i simply aim to keep the pot small, probably betting the turn, 3/4 pot and deciding on the river.

amazing the clarity y ou get in bathroom, i should just play in there

wild sesh, had a period where i won 6bi in 100 hands then lost 6 bi back in 100 hands. and towards the end i started cbetting probably a bit too much, combined with calling and folding a tad my redline started to nosedive before the end of the sesh, overall: -2bi in 1200 hands

hand 1: Fold the nuts dummy
i checked to see the action thatd develop, trying to see a relatively blank turn, then get quite a bit action to where i know im drawing to a chop, hopefully

Hand #1
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 696920
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $53.05
Hero (BB): $77.55
UTG: $37.60
MP: $54.25
CO: $32.70
BTN: $54.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 9 8 A 6
UTG raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($9.00) T 7 J (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $8.55, CO folds, BTN raises to $34.20, Hero raises to $75.80, UTG folds, MP calls $43.95 all in, BTN calls $18.55 all in

Turn: ($167.00) 8 (3 players – 2 are all in)

River: ($167.00) 5 (3 players – 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $167.00
Hero shows 9 8 A 6
MP shows 9 J T A
BTN shows 7 9 A 8
BTN wins $163.50
(Rake: $3.00)

just fold the flop i have single digit bbs invest and no real bd draws

hand 4:

villain here’s ~ 62/10 and his psb on the flop should be taken for strength, i still give ppl more a bluffing dynamic then there is, ESPECIALLY @ 50PLO. i thought my side cards/bd draws were live.

Hand #3
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 696922
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $50.35
CO: $50.00
BTN: $58.65
SB: $148.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 8 9 J T
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG calls $2, BTN calls $2, 1 fold

Flop: ($8.00) 3 5 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $7.60, BTN folds, Hero calls $7.60

Turn: ($23.20) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $8.50, Hero raises to $39.90, UTG calls $31.40

River: ($103.00) 6 (2 players)

Final Pot: $103.00
Hero shows 8 9 J T
UTG shows 5 5 T 7
UTG wins $101.00
(Rake: $2.00)

then i fall for the oldest trick in the book and try to bluff him off a FH. here i need to start reminding myself he bet pot on the flop where hes either wrapped or setted and hes not thinking to bet a size to get him a cheap river, hes betting smaller because he got stronger.

hand 3: the sheriff-ing begins

here i call because it looked like a steal often enough, but forget the MW dynamic where he still has to be semi strong to shove into 3 ppl.i end up being completely free rolled. im giving people too much credit for shoving weaker draws. he probably was shoving on his K and thought more about his FD as backup given it checked to him.

Hand #2
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 696921
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: $98.45
CO: $48.70
BTN: $48.00
SB: $74.60
Hero (BB): $94.30
UTG: $52.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with K A T 8
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, Hero raises to $8.75, UTG calls $7, BTN calls $7, SB calls $7

Flop: ($35.00) K 6 5 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $33.25, SB folds, Hero raises to $66.50, UTG folds, BTN calls $6 all in

Turn: ($113.50) Q (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: ($113.50) A (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $113.50
BTN shows 8 A K T
Hero shows K A T 8
BTN wins $110.50
(Rake: $3.00)

there’s no need to be the sheriff

hand 4:
here again i try to play sheriff. my immediate thoughts where hes not potting w/ AAxx on this board so hes got Axxx w/ side cards, hes a fishy villain like 45/12. again im not thinking of the MW dynamic and he still got to be relatively strong. im not differentiating between the HU times and the MW pots.

Hand #4
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 696923
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $98.45
MP: $48.70
CO: $110.50
BTN: $65.85
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 6 5 3 7
UTG raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BTN raises to $6, Hero calls $5.75, 1 fold, UTG calls $4.25

Flop: ($18.50) 7 A 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $17.60, Hero raises to $44, UTG folds, BTN calls $26.40

Turn: ($106.50) Q (2 players)

River: ($106.50) 7 (2 players)

Final Pot: $106.50
BTN shows 8 7 4 A
Hero shows 6 5 3 7
BTN wins $103.50
(Rake: $3.00)

he could easily have flopped 2pr w/ draw. but this was his first 3bet in 100 hands so i was a bit bewildered. and im starting to notice i do dumb things when i am unsure.

hand 5:

here im starting to notice a common pattern of me playing sheriff and fish potting when draws hit on the river. although this wasn’t the obvious draw (spades) i need to be more conscious of draws that do hit such as wraps.

Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 696924
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $119.85
Hero (UTG): $72.35
CO: $64.15
BTN: $142.35
SB: $59.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with J 9 Q 9
Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.90, SB calls $0.65, BB calls $0.40

Flop: ($3.60) 5 9 T (4 players)
SB bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $6.30, BTN folds, SB calls $5.80, BB folds

Turn: ($16.70) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $13.00, SB calls $13

River: ($42.70) Q (2 players)
SB bets $38.95, Hero calls $38.95

Final Pot: $120.60
Hero shows J 9 Q 9
SB shows J 7 A K
SB wins $119.50
SB wins $0.10
(Rake: $1.00)

View all 5 hands

i fell for it twice tonight being potted when draws hit. and need to only call when EVERY draw bricks. i also need to start identifying and noting which wraps are out there, then tell myself which wraps hit when the various cards come in.

Lessons from last night:

1. 1. Be conscious of mw pots. the dynamics change and people bet stronger. there is much less of a need to play sheriff, simply fold without a strong hand as people are shoving/betting stronger hands. even if you don’t CB people still need a stronger hand to bet. Instead of c/r to try to get someone off a hand in this situation, a call risks less as you can see what develops, if they continue to bet, fish will have it.
2. 2. When fish pot the riv when some draws get there, be very wary of what is out there and identify all the wraps and FDs out there, count how many hit, then weigh your options, simply don’t weight ranges towards FDs because an FD flopped, and call when it misses, people play wraps without an FD and wraps still complete when the FD doesn’t.
3. 3. The bare nuts doesn’t hold water to the nuts w/ redraws, if there’s a lot of action when the nut straight is obvious in a MW pot, there are draws out there.

obvious lessons, but for some reason i my first instinct is to think what people could be bluffing, im going to try to say out loud, what value hands could be betting like this.

a review of important/learnable hands on the sesh.

Sesh review of 5/13/10

Hand #1
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 695636
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

UTG: $66.70
CO: $50.00
Hero (BTN): $86.65
SB: $78.35
BB: $98.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with K A J 4
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4.50, CO calls $3.50

Flop: ($15.25) 4 2 7 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $10.00, BB calls $10, CO raises to $45, Hero raises to $81.65, BB folds

Turn: ($115.25) A (2 players)

River: ($115.25) 8 (2 players)

Final Pot: $115.25
CO shows 5 J A 3
Hero shows K A J 4
CO wins $113.25
(Rake: $-34.65)

o Two things I don’t really like about my play here:
o First my thought process. Mainly because I have Ac id ont see a lot of club draws in his range. I forget to include medium rundowns with clubs, which the 7 hits. Or KKxx w/ clubs. I wouldn’t really think hed shove KKxxcc unless since I look strong, but im not sure if I should take it out of his hand given the level, but the board does hit more of my range than his. Secondly, the prescence of the cold caller does change the hand dynamics, he know knows hes got to get thru 2ppl. Even tho the caller was loose it still ups the strength of his hand. Small wraps are still in his range and either have 2pr+gut or 2pr oesd+. Me holding the Ac makes his range even strong, as he cant be doing this w/ a hand like A3cc where he has 1 nut draw and I semi live draw. That said this villain was agro on flops and I didn’t think this board hit his range that hard w/o clubs. That said those hands in his range, w/ at least a pair crush me. It is only against the weakest part of his rundowns and sidecards that I have the odds to call.

• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 24.51% 201 0
7s8c9c6h 75.49% 619 0
• Edit • Link • 2+2 • Deuces Cracked
• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 37.80% 310 0
7s8s9c6h 62.20% 510 0
• Edit • Link • 2+2 • Deuces Cracked
• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 18.78% 154 0
KcKhQhJc 81.22% 666 0
• Edit • Link • 2+2 • Deuces Cracked
• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 19.15% 157 0
KcKhTh9c 80.85% 663 0
• Edit • Link • 2+2 • Deuces Cracked
• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 19.15% 157 0
KcKh8c9h 80.85% 663 0
• Edit • Link • 2+2 • Deuces Cracked
• Omaha Hi Simulation What’s this?
820 trials (Exhaustive)
• board: 4h2c7c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AcJd4sKs 24.51% 201 0
7s8c9c6s 75.49% 619 0
• The fact I ended up being in a flip is noteworthy of how light hes willing to c/r. he probably feels that the overcall is sidecards and clubs, and the flop missed most of my range. That said he still needs considerable strength to not just rely on FE

Hand #2
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 695637
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $44.00
BB: $50.00
UTG: $73.70
Hero (CO): $131.90
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K Q K 8
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, BB raises to $6, Hero raises to $19.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $50, Hero calls $30.50

Flop: ($101.50) A 4 9 (2 players)

Turn: ($101.50) 8 (2 players)

River: ($101.50) A (2 players)

Final Pot: $101.50
BB shows A K A 3
Hero shows K Q K 8
BB wins $99.50
(Rake: $2.00)

o He had 3b pot to 6, I 4bet to 19.50, he shoved, he had AAK3ss
o We had history in 4bet pots. Previously I had 4bet utg w/ AKK4ss and he flatted QT99ss otb. Flop came KQxdd ( I had nfd+top set) I checked, he potted to 32 I shovedfor 34 total, he called.
o Whats different about this hand is, while previously he flatted the 4b IP, here he 5bet pot w/ AAxx. From this I determine against him:
 First off, the KKxx is a fold, even tho I 4bet, v his range. @ best im 60-40 v rundowns while he had never 4bet, much less 5bet before so its comprised of 20-80’s w/ his Aces.
 Still even more importantly, I should be folding here for simple math reasons, its 30 more into 72. Oddswise I need 4:1. Here im getting 2.33:1. For some reason I had thought he would shove his rundowns, while forgetting they play perfectly in 4bet pots.
o Ultimately , what I can draw here is that while 4bettin KKxx v him may be full of variance it still is profitable as hes calling with worse pairs and sidecards, AS LONG AS I am folding to 5bets.
 Also knowing that I need ~4:1 when I 4bet KK and face a 5bet, while the 5bet gives me 2.33:1
•

9977ds in sb in LIMPED pot/2275 in 2K9 (i flop bottomset +fd) in limped pot (notice a theme?)

Hand #3
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 695638
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $68.25
BTN: $62.35
Hero (SB): $50.00
BB: $51.60
UTG: $50.00
MP: $43.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with 9 7 9 7
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($2.00) Q 7 Q (4 players)
Hero bets $1.90, BB folds, MP folds, BTN raises to $3.80, Hero raises to $13.30, BTN raises to $41.80, Hero raises to $49.50, BTN calls $7.70

Turn: ($101.00) 3 (2 players)

River: ($101.00) A (2 players)

Final Pot: $101.00
BTN shows Q Q T A
Hero shows 9 7 9 7
BTN wins $98.00
(Rake: $3.00)

o I bet he m2b I 3b he 4bet shoved: QQAT, for quads
o Here I mixed up the logic of getting underfulls v fish in on the flop for proection/pushing equities v bare Qxxx
 That holds in single raised pots, where a 4bet isn’t needed to commit stacks, here often enough hell show up with top boat.
•in the 2275 hand, theres a reason why we have back, to hit it. wee suckouts

T986ss: facing a limp raise pot, I ended up getting it in. (2 huge cs’s inbetween)

Hand #4
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 6 players – View hand 695639
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $101.70
UTG: $198.10
MP: $136.35
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $92.25
SB: $52.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 9 8 T 6
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.75, BTN calls $2.75, 1 fold, BB calls $2.25, UTG raises to $15, Hero raises to $49.80, 2 folds, UTG calls $34.80

Flop: ($105.35) 3 7 8 (2 players)

Turn: ($105.35) K (2 players)

River: ($105.35) Q (2 players)

Final Pot: $105.35
UTG shows J 4 T A
Hero shows 9 8 T 6
UTG wins $103.35
(Rake: $2.00)

o My initial thoughts were I was 40-60 against AA and should get it in as I didn’t wwant to rbing along the rest of the field.
o Here for some reason I also thought his limpraise was dead/there was enough dead money in the pot to take a 40/60
 There wasn’t
 After doin the math of getting stacks in in this situation preflop I need ((56/47.15)1)^-1=45.62%.
• The lesson here is that his 15 isn’t dead, it doesn’t even mean much as it has to go back in his stack as its going in the pot anyway and hes never folding.
 I should have either called/folded and played it like a 4bet pot.
• Given that I had nutty straightdraws in my hand and I don’t mind a call
• Although I don’t have a nfd and I may have my hearts dominated. I am not getting the it in on the flop multiway w/o a sd or tpfd/bdsd
•

KQT3ds utg v hj/KQ85ds in bb v mp

o Her ei 3b a 824AJ board
 The problem with my double barrel is I repping such a small range: sets (discount 2s and 4s) and unless im barreling 4 overs, I didn’t hit the J hard enough to beat Aces up
 My new plan on this t
Hand #5
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 695669
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $111.30
Hero (UTG): $50.00
CO: $102.65
BTN: $80.75
SB: $125.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 3 K T Q
Hero raises to $1.40, CO calls $1.40, BTN calls $1.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.95) 8 4 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($11.95) A (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9

River: ($29.95) J (2 players)
Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22

Final Pot: $73.95
Hero shows 3 K T Q
CO shows 4 K 9 A
CO wins $72.75
CO wins $0.10
(Rake: $1.10)

View all 5 handsurn is to barrel the turn and give up
• New intuition: barrel/giveup on A turns, youre never folding 2pr hands that that called the turn on super try boards/flops that didn’t hit utg
• JT97ss: I 3barrel 8h4hKd6sAh

Hand #5
Poker Stars $50.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi – 5 players – View hand 695669
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $111.30
Hero (UTG): $50.00
CO: $102.65
BTN: $80.75
SB: $125.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with 3 K T Q
Hero raises to $1.40, CO calls $1.40, BTN calls $1.40, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.95) 8 4 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($11.95) A (2 players)
Hero bets $9.00, CO calls $9

River: ($29.95) J (2 players)
Hero bets $22.00, CO calls $22

Final Pot: $73.95
Hero shows 3 K T Q
CO shows 4 K 9 A
CO wins $72.75
CO wins $0.10
(Rake: $1.10)

View all 5 hands

o I really don’t like my 3barrel as I hear from anything that beats k6 on the turn weights his line towards fd’s, and ppl don’t fold what they draw to, I should be c/f
• QQ44ss otb v new co 40bb deep
o The same logic w/ my T986ss hand, im either against a rundown (which probably just calls my 4b) or AA which im 30/70 against , its perfectly fine to call andplay postlop. His 5b weights his range heavily toward AAxx, even if it is a minbet, I can call to flop a set/fold given the odds.

ps im gonna try using the hand converter next time, this was more for my own use, didnt think ppl would view it—-comment away if you like, i may or may not be poating them in the forums as these are what i can get from myself

so i can’t sleep, my roomates drunk, pleading with his old booty call, so i feel i wanted to write my thoughts down somewhere instead of a word document.

I allotted $1500 from my NL BR to 50PLO in an attempt to crossover and successfully learn the game, and learn deep=stacked play well enough to eventually play in Potto’s 5/5PLO game which has a 500min-2500max buy=in.

That’s the long term goal. In the short term ill still play NL live games both at Potto and the soft side games around while i delve into the world of PLO online.

That said the daily goals:
1. 1750 hands/day, 4 tabling for the majority
1a. learn to be quicker with my table selection process so i spend less time mass multi tabling
2. Session review either every day after the sesh or the morning after
3. Post 3 hands each on DC and 2p2/day of play
4. Respond to 4 threads/day at length if possible, by starting discussion.

*Monthly goals *(really beginning in june 2010):
1. 40,000 hands/month (1750 hands/day, for 23 days)
2. $650 bonus until i jump to 100PLO
2a. ~67,000 fppps/month @50PLO
3. Move up to 100PLO @ 75 BI
4. Move up to 200PLO @ 100 BI

Attempted Daily routine until the end of May
1. wake-up earlier ~9am
2. breakfast/chill ~930
3. Review Previous Days session ~1030/1100
3a. Post interesting/mundane lessons from my sesh on the Blog to remind
myself/store them
3b. Post 3 hands/site
3c. Respond to various threads
4. Watch 2 videos
4a. Current list in order: SSML Disease, Proper PLO, The Haj School, 2×6, dogisheads UP ~1300-1330
5. Lunch ~1400
6. Gym/shower ~1530
7. Respond to chatter on sites about hands i posted ~1600
8. Session 1 (650 hands ~2.5 hrs each) ~1830
9. Dinner ~1900
10. Session 2 ~2130
11. Forward planning study ~2230
12. Session 3 ~0100
13. Sleep 0100-0900

Pretty ambitious for the last 2.5 weeks, but i aim to get a solid 10-12 poker days out of the rest of the month if not 2 more.

My aim of the Forward planning study will be to take 3, 4 or 5, of the hands i have experienced during the day already and plan out my reactions to different T/R cards, and to his possible actions. This is something i really need to work on and add to my game as right now i feel i am reactive instead of proactive.

Additionally i will have coaching sessions mainly with KasinoKrime, but n0whereman will be sprinkled in.

Of my off days, every Sunday as planned currently will be another day of recap/study
1. Re-listen to the skype conversations of the week
1a. take notes, try to put the key pieces of skype convos into notes to put on the blog
2. Re condense the notes i have taken on the Vids during the week to be concise and easy to understand/ go back over.
3. Relax get away from the game—-clear my mind, enjoy life