DANGERLION

Whats his turn barreling frequency like in 3b pots? Wouldn't he barrel most of his hands that get to this river and want to overbet for value?

With this information given, I can never make this call.

Even IF the river over bet looks like a bluff (even though it looks like a overbet for value to me --- esp. since he missed his turn bet), some hands he will be bluffing with still beat 57 (66,77,88,99).

To me, it looks like he wanted to check-shove the turn.. but since you checked it back, he overbet his completed draw for value, making it look like a bluff.

I know you're the krantz but I dislike pf

I will say he has Ax maybe A-J/Q/K

Unless he has adapted a balanced range of river over bets a la isilsur1 I'd assume his range here is basically the nut flush and the nut flush blocker. If he is capable of vbetting any flush here, since we basically never have a flush, this becomes closer to a fold. I'd have to know about the specific dynamics of the hand. Fullflush is a very intelligent player though so I think he expects to be able to overbet here and get value from our totally marginal bluff catchers (like that hand with you vs. Antonius where you overbet jammed K9 into his AK), except in this spot we represent far less strength. I'd imagine he expects us to fold probably like 75%+ of the time. I dunno, I think it is close.

I really think this would come down a read. Is he stuck? Is he trying to level you into calling with your bluff catchers, or expecting you to just give up with them (which is something that I would have to determine based on game flow and how he/I had been playing).

I also think that in this particular spot your actual hand is irrelevant vs. what he is repping. AK high here is basically the same as your hand is the same as 22. I just don't see him overbetting with something that has reasonable showdown value

I think the river is a fold because if he's bluffing, he may have your 5 beat with a hand that's better than a 5 but worse than what he thinks your bluffcatching range is. he can have 66, 77, 99, bigger 5x 8x a really bad Tx suited, bajunky 3b bluff fodder.

I doubt he expects you to have a very strong hand after checking back the turn, just bluffcatchers and pot controlling stuff, rarely a monster.

He can still have some value hands that he checked the turn with if he thinks you're betting a high % of the time so I think the only kind of hands we can rule out are good to mediocre draws that he'd almost always (I may be wrong here) semi-bluff the turn with.

As far as whether or not he expects you to fold and if he should bluff for a different amount if he was, that's hard to say if we don't know how he perceives you. Does he expect you to think he's polarized and does he expect that to increase your bluffcatching frequency or is he trying to buy max fold equity on the river thinking that you'll think he's polarized and fold anyway. I just don't know dude. You tell us :D

He thinks you have a marginal pair.

Even though you very rarely have a strong hand in this spot I think he knows that you know that he knows this and his line is weird and weird lines get looked up light so I doubt he's bluffing.

I would call with the upper flushes so yes that then of course makes it a great spot to bluff but that doesnt mean people do it.

Betting less would be a better bluffing size since it would widen his value range significantly and get a lot fewer hero calls.

how come you don't bet turn?

With the turn check and your line i think he puts you on a decent ace - the turn check might make sense to him.

I lean towards a 3 (turn check from him as he has some showdown value) or a busted straight draw. if he thinks you have an ace hard to call without a pair on that board.

Are you ever checking back the turn with a hand that becomes a monster on the river?

Look at the possibilities:

a) he isn't bluffing
b) he is bluffing but still beats your 4th pair, weak kicker
c) he has pure air

I don't think he shows up with pure air often enough that you can call.

I'm not a high stakes player so what I'm going to say might be mildly retarded but here goes:

His cbet is somewhat small for that board texture. Since you didn't raise the flop and checked behind on the turn, your range looks a lot like (65s,75s,T7s,T8,T9,66-99, some Ax} + a few combos of draws you didnt raise the flop with. From his point of view, the vast majority of that range would fold to a river overbet shove. So with that information we can call with bluff catchers, however the problem is that he can turn a better hand into a bluff and we are at the bottom of our range on the river. Knowing what his turn checking range looks like would help a lot.

I'm guesstimating his river range to be {JJ-22,AcKc,AQs,AcTc,Ac9c,Ac8c,Ac7c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,KcQc,KcTc,Kc9c,JTs,Tc9c,8c7c,7c6c,6c5c,KQo,JTo} I'm assuming he barrels his KcXc more often than his AcXc since the AcXc have more sd value.

Your 7h5h has 35.5% equity, which is a fold. Assuming this range is accurate (I know its not) the worst hand you can call with is 77.

is there anything to say about villain's turn c/r frequency on the turn here?

maybe i should have made this a forum post so i could quote everybody!

guys who asked about villain's turn barreling/checking frequencies - i had no reads on that at the time.

jjd323 - yes i am checking back huge hands here and definitely against fullflush. that probably makes it slightly less likely this is a bluff.

i think delcrossb and scratchy1 are pretty spot on. if i had thought about what scratchy points out, about how he should bluff for less money with his buffs, i probably could have folded. leveled myself bad here. i also think vs this opponent specifically, the bet/check/bet line is weighted towards strong hands (he probably holds off on bluffs or doesn't c-bet about 1/3 of the time we get into this postflop situation)

roulirouli - i wonder if 450 on the flop could be a bet-sizing tell. he had the nut flush.

hyachachacha!

i think one important factor that is overlooked is that fullflush did cbet the flop. (the sizing could go both ways, obv only u can answer that one)

This is one of the flop textures, where people in general give up some % of the time, since it hits your perceived range very well.

This should decrease his bluffing frequency in general. in addition to that the 8 also improves some marginal hands to 2pair or striaght (Q9,79,T8).

I´ll be biased about the river (knowing the results), but i think 1,2k ish on his side would be believably repping a decent Tx vbet (20% 3b can include KT,AT,QT), knowing you rarely have Jx.

This means you´ll fold all your marginal hands to the 1,2k ish bet (i assume). thus, it would suffice for him if he was to bluff.

An overbet bluff doesnt make sense unless he wants you to fold 2pair/straight, which nobody is expecting anybody to do.

how is he bluffing here >40%??? pretty awful call imo

I think he levels himself here. He checks the turn and knows that you know that looks weak and that any river bet will likely be a bluff. But he also knows that you know that he knows that.

He fails to realize that you know that he knows that you know that he know the turn check really was weak.