DANGERLION

http://www.spring.org.uk/2007/11/why-we-all-stink-as-intuitive.php

Very relevant to playing poker.  One of the biggest leaks players have is a poor understanding of how their opponent thinks.  One of the most useful ways to spend your time would be in making yourself a better intuitive psychologist.  Your opponent doesn't think the same way you do, he doesn't even think about the same things that you do nor does he weight them the same way you do.  What would be the "right" move against yourself can be the wrong move against another person.  They take their seat at the table under an entirely different set of circumstances than you do.

A good way to get better at this is to always ask why.  Why did he open shove the river?  Because he is a fish is usually not the most useful answer.  Why did he 4-bet pocket fives?  There is usually never one obvious answer to these questions at first.  Instead there are a variety of possibilities that you can weight based on your experiences at the table, with him and other opponents that have made similar moves against you in the past.

Always try to understand why.  Make it your mantra.  We should put it on a t-shirt.

Just finished the newest episode w/ Chris.  Should be out Sunday 8-22.  I 4-tabled 5/10 and 10/20 vs multiple regs while Chris and I got caught up to speed.  Y'all will enjoy.  I missed making videos.

My convo w/ Chris reminded me of something Michael Jordan is known for saying:

I've missed more than 9,000 shots in my career.  I've lost almost 300 games.  Twenty-six times, I've been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed.  I've failed over and over and over again in my life.  And that is why I succeed.

Gotta enter the race before you can lose it.

Turns out reading scripts while 2-3 tabling NL6max is a new hobby of mine.  Here's a hand I won today:

Full Tilt Poker $10/$20 No Limit Hold'em $3 Ante - 6 players - View hand 830553

The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $2190.00
BB: $11115.50
UTG: $4004.00
MP: $2295.00
CO: $2207.00
Hero (BTN): $3111.00

Pre Flop: ($48.00) Hero is BTN with J J
3 folds, Hero raises to $60, 1 fold, BB raises to $220, Hero calls $160

Flop: ($468.00) 5 Q 4(2 players)
BB bets $280, Hero calls $280

Turn: ($1028.00) 8(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1028.00) 2(2 players)
BB bets $720, Hero calls $720

Final Pot: $2468.00
BB shows T T (a pair of Tens)
Hero shows J J (a pair of Jacks)
Hero wins $2465.00
(Rake: $3.00)

BB is noluck17, who plays pretty loose preflop but much tighter from this position.  Haven't played enough with him lately to know for sure whether calling or 4-betting is better preflop, I'd say calling is likely better with these stacks while 4-betting is better the closer we get to 100bb.  

Anyhow, on the river he bet pretty quickly.  For those of you watching Where the Buffalo Roam, here's a quick breakdown.  My range for him at this point is Qx+ and AK/AJ with 99-JJ and 8x severely, severely discounted.  Against that range the river might even be a fold (it's really close as he should theoretically have a few more combos of bluffs outside AK/AJ), so the only way I can call is if I give more weight to his quick timing (is he significantly more likely to be bluffing here with a snap bet than he is to be value-betting?).  I thought the timing gave something away (as an aside, it might have, just not the kind of information I read it for) and made the right call for the wrong reasons.  In actuality, I was caught by surprise in a spot I shouldn't have been caught - of course he thinks I'm a calling station and unlikely to fold the river.  In his eyes (correctly or incorrectly, can't give that away) my range is weak so he can v-bet really wide and expect to be a favorite when called.

Key reason I'm even posting this hand - don't be caught by surprise.  When you're weighting ranges as you're playing, accept and account for the idea that you may be off.  Constantly questioning your logic is the best way to improve.

I'm slowly readjusting to civilian life post WSOP.  Shopping for groceries is a surreal experience.  You half expect the cashier is looking at you waiting for you to signal hit, stay or double down.

Vegas this summer was different than the Vegas of summers past.  In 2007 I beat David Benyamine out of a 300k pot at 7am on the tail end of a Spearmint Rhino trip.  In 2008 I lost that legendarily large pot against Patrik Antonius.  2009 placed me into the surreal world of a reality television show. In 2010 I took a much needed vacation.  I went to the movies.  Worked out.  Watched the World Cup.  Read books by the pool.  In a hammock.  Played some tournaments. I even had a deep run in the Main Event (I came in 684th, my first ME cash, a nice merit badge but honestly who isn't disappointed when they have a whole buncha chips that late in the game and doesn't see November?)

Tonight I head out west with Chuck to run some DC strategy with the men behind the curtain.  Expect more frequent updates now that routine has returned.  I'm currently knee deep in reading 40 screenplays in 40 days, writing crossfit for my alter-ego.  In the past few days I've read (and watched) Die Hard, Thelma and Louise and The Shawshank Redemption.  The next 7 scripts are some of my favorites: The Matrix, Network, Memento, Toy Story, Shakespeare in Love, Pulp Fiction and Casablanca.

Poker videos?  They're coming soon.  On a Sunday in August for sure.  Fender and I are meeting up this week to talk about where to take our series.  After feeling burnt out for awhile, I'm getting my sea legs back, little by little.

PS I think we can blame the dearth of blogging on my new fascination with Twitter.  It's just so easy to spew thoughts in 140 characters or less!

Man am I sorry for the delay.  I want to blame it all on tech problems but truth be told about 25% of it has been that I just haven't been feeling like making a poker video.  I'd always rather wait a bit and make something better than mail something in these days.  The juice is coming back to me though.  I am going to put up an episode in the next few days analyzing various NL6m hand histories and scenarios.  Post your questions/links to your hands in comments and I'll take a look at them and try to unify everything under one theme.  I think that'll be pretty good and should keep you hounds satiated until Chris and I can get together and catch up.

Also, I'm playing the 25k 6max on Wednesday.  I'll be up on Twitter (@dckrantz) with the commentary so get up in there.  We created sweet little notebooks for WSOP called the Hand Converter Paper Edition, so I'll be rocking that and recording my hands, if the tournament is interesting I'll scan them in and make a video on it.  Let's hope the force is with  me.

One of the definitions of grind is to work hard.  So you're not grinding if you're not working hard.  

If you're a grinder, something worth considering.

I'll give you two reasons to play more poker.  One: to make more money.  Two: to get better.  The second reason leads to more of reason number one, unless you're a losing player, in which case you're playing to get better anyway.  Hopefully.

I talk to MagicNinja a lot about this.  What makes the best player.  If they're playing while you're sleeping don't they have an edge on you?  Time passes and the games don't get easier.  The BP oil spill should tell you something about fish.

Let's say you have 15 minutes to play.  Only 15 minutes.  You can ambivalently load up some tables and click some buttons.  Sometimes you'll probably get stuck and play longer, you'll miss your reservation or your class or that flight to see your grandma.  Let's say that's not you though.

Instead you are Chuck Norris.  Chuck fucking Norris.  You can look at your biceps and that kid from Ladybugs in the mirror and prepare.  You can mentally decide to play.  You can win that trophy.

MagicNinja's brother is one of the most diligent online grinders ever.  He is Chuck Norris.  He will not play a session without taking a shit and a shower.  So if you did just that you would be doing better.

The more you play, the more you can play.  Just take it hand by hand.

Taking suggestions for blog posts on NL strategy for during the WSOP.  Full ring, HU, 6max, any topic, including the mental game.  Anything anyone really wants to read about related to NL Holdem, post in comments and I'll see what sings to me and put my spin on it.

I just finished Ender's Game on a recommendation from Rob.  It's by Orson Scott Card and is one of the more popular sci-fi literary works.  Wikipedia comes in handy for plot description: 

Set in Earth's future, the novel presents an imperiled humankind who have barely survived two conflicts with the Formics (an insectoid alien race also known as the "Buggers").  In preparation for an anticipated third invasion, an international fleet maintains a school to find and train future fleet commanders.  The world's most talented children, including the novel's protagonist Ender Wiggin, are taken at a very young age to a training center known as the Battle School.  There, teachers train them in the arts of war through increasingly difficult games including ones undertaken in zero gravity in the Battle Room, where Ender's tactical genius is revealed.

Note the bold.  As I was reading I was struck by several passages, namely those centering around Ender's learning and understanding of the zero-G games, and their relation to strategic poker tactics.  In creating a futurist's vision of war games designed to train people for space combat, Orson Scott Card seems to have been inspired by the nature of games themselves:

Ender liked it better, though, when two boys played against each other.  Then they had to use each other's tunnels, and it quickly became clear which of them was worth anything at the strategy of it.

Within an hour or so, it began to pall.  Ender understood the regularities by then.  Understood the rules the computer was following, so that he knew he could always, once he mastered the controls, outmaneuver the enemy.  Spirals when the enemy was like this; loops when the enemy was like that...  There was no challenge to it, then, just a matter of playing until the computer got so fast that no human reflexes could overcome it.  That wasn't fun.  It was the other boys he wanted to play.  The boys who had been so trained by the computer that even when they played against each other they tried to emulate the computer.  Think like a machine instead of a boy.

I could beat them this way.

The word "balance" is used insanely liberally in poker training these days.  It seems like many people don't quite understand the implications of actually maintaining "balance."  Think of it like this:  we play poker against other humans, not machines.  Humans make mistakes, and it's your job to exploit every single one of them without leaving yourself open to attack.  "Balance" almost always exists as a way of protecting yourself, first and foremost. 

Ender's Lesson 1: Stop thinking like machines.  Question everything.  Experiment and improvise.  If you are playing like a machine, your opponents play you like you're a machine.  And then they will win.

If you like action comedies go see it.  It features probably the funniest poker joke I've ever seen.  I figured this movie would suck but it's actually REALLY funny.

That is all.

I wake up around 8, stretch, and tell myself “I will go to the gym today!” because on the days in which I do this I’m about 20% more likely than normal to actually go. Which is a really bad habit I intend to break with our trainer in Vegas this summer. I constantly struggle with the “trainer or no trainer?” question. Isn’t it a waste of money to pay someone to basically just stand there and count reps for me? I maintain (with Chuck) that crossfit in Seattle was the fucking nuts. You cannot get any better than watching an intimidating black man yell at Chuck for his poor (now corrected) deadlift form. Sooooo

In the morning I read. I have this thing with books that is a milder case of my former thing with things. If I see an interesting book anywhere I buy it. If someone recommends me a book I buy it. If I think it might be a useful or interesting read in three years, I buy it. So yeah, I have lots of books that are constant reminders of the depressing fact that there will always be more books to read, which may or may not tell you many things about me. Anyhow, I read a bunch of different types of books at once, which is indicative of the way my mind wanders, just like it has now to thinking about how many people in poker have learned something from me. That’s sort of a megalomaniacal thing to think about but I have posted a lot of strategy, made a lot of videos, done a lot of coaching and talked a lot of poker with people over the years. This post is coming out like that movie trailer for Inception.

Right now I’m reading a lot about dramatic writing, which is one of the 4-5 major projects I’m working on. A project is just useful nomenclature for organizing and managing separate areas of work, with work consisting of various tasks essential to execution. Rob Cole, ladies and gentleman. He inspires! The cliff notes on why this is even a project of mine: I went to film school for screenwriting and refuse to admit my degree is a sunk cost. That, and I feel like I have several obvious duties to the world including writing a great poker movie. I ramble — without getting into specifics I am working on the craft and grinding this part time.

Other projects:
DeucesCracked
Producing
Coaching/Playing Poker
Girlfriend

I really don’t know if Chelsea would like or dislike being called a project, and that’s part of what’s so awesome about her. She gets a :horseshoe:

Producing is just what Hollywood would call what I’m doing with 2M2MM, From Busto to Robusto and a little webisodic poker-related project I will be working on during the WSOP. I’m learning a lot as I go. Last week j-mac and I visited my buddy at an editing house in midtown and he taught us some Final Cut Pro. VIVA LA TILT ROOM

I kind of want to go watch Fringe so I’m going to do as my film school professors told me and get out quick. Future poker videos/series on the horizon from me: pr1nnyraiding 3, lightsabers 3, a video on poker MATH!, and that last Isildur1 Duel.
Gossip Girl is GREAT, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise,

J

PS Everyone email foxwoodsfiend@deucescracked.com with little poems about how he should blog more. It’ll be just as awesome as it sounds.

PPS wtf is UP WITH THE AUTO CAPS BOLDING
PSPS LOST