Diary of a Donk: Escaping the Dungeons of Online Poker...

I've been watching some BlackRain79 vids over on another training site (shhhh...), he's one of the most consistent and successful winners at the micros ever, and he's produced a series called "crushing the micros 6max" where he works from 2nl through 5nl to 10nl and focusses on really sound fundamentals which he basically never deviates from ever. He hunts out fish relentlessly and doesn't even bother playing against reggy type players or trying to establish/exploit their weaknesses, and he seriously avoids what he calls "high variance plays" or "high variance situations". I kind of realised my natural tendency and playing style is to go hell-for-leather at these high variance spots, situations that BlackRain expressly avoids because he's patient enough waiting for much "safer" spots to get his opponents' money and he also wants to expressly avoid situations that might tilt him, even though he knows/suspects he has a slight edge.

Kinda got me thinking about my whole philosophy toward the game and what sort of player I consider myself/want to be etc. I've always felt the game becomes boring if we play super-safe TAG ABC poker almost to the point of removing some of the game from the game, and certainly a lot of the fun. But I'm not sure how much I enjoy exposing myself to all these situations that I never really thought of as "high-variance" until I started piling together a massive losing streak and looking for reasons why, and saw one of the most successful micro winners expressly avoiding a bunch of spots that I go for as standard.

Something to think about. Maybe I shall just play the safest taggiest poker I can to protect myself from so much swingyness. It's a massive dichotomy right now given that I really want to start winning and avoiding all this downswing/tilt BS, but I kind of believe I should be true to my own philosophies about how I want to play the game too, and I know that if the shoe was on the other foot and I had have run good instead of bad I would have won a boatload and not even questioned it at all.

Interesting spot...

Holy fucking shit man I can't handle this anymore!!! It's all I ever fucking get!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This was my entire winnings for the session I now have an EV of 13.5 euros (nearly 3 BIs) and an actual net result of 0!!!!! This is every fucking session I play!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3, 4 or 5 BIs below EV. EVERY FUCKING SESSION FOR OVER A MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WTF am I supposed to do about this shit?!?

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

UTG: $5.65 (113 bb)
MP: $4.20 (84 bb)
Hero (CO): $11.78 (235.6 bb)
BTN: $5 (100 bb)
SB: $7.93 (158.6 bb)
BB: $7.83 (156.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
UTG raises to $0.15, MP calls $0.15, Hero raises to $0.60, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.45, MP calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.87) J J 7 (3 players)
UTG bets $1, MP folds, Hero raises to $2.55, UTG raises to $5.05 and is all-in, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($11.97) T (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($11.97) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $11.97 pot ($0.79 rake)
Final Board: J J 7 T 6
UTG showed 6 6 and won $11.18 ($5.53 net)
MP mucked and lost (-$0.60 net)
Hero mucked K K and lost (-$5.65 net)

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I know what every river card is gonna be before it comes, I swear I just sit there looking at the all-in percentages that ipoker puts up next to each player and watch the other player's go from 12% to 5% to 100%  every fucking time it's just horrendously sick. and I KNOW it's gonna fucking come!!! I can't understand how anyone can beat this game it's a fucking joke!!!!!!!!!! Seriously wtf?!?

And this happens...

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $1.41 (28.2 bb)
SB: $1.10 (22 bb)
Hero (BB): $5.20 (104 bb)Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 7
BTN calls $0.05, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.18, BTN calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.38) 4 2 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.25, BTN raises to $0.65, Hero raises to $2, BTN calls $0.58

Turn: ($2.84) 8 (2 players)
River: ($2.84) 6 (2 players)

Results: $2.84 pot ($0.18 rake)
Final Board: 4 2 6 8 6
BTN showed 6 A and won $2.66 ($1.25 net)
Hero mucked 7 7 and lost (-$1.41 net)

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I just need to prove in my own mind that this shit actually is occuring all over the place cos I'm starting to think I'm just a way shit poker player!!! The above type of scenario, usually for entire stacks, is all I ever fucking get!! Got it in with 80% equity which is about a big an edge as you'll ever get in this game, the guy was happily all-in and this would have been for stacks if he wasn't such a random buy-in amount fish. My graph is a fucking trainwreck!!!

Rant over. Promise. Next blog post will be productive and not related to runbad at all :-) I just got smacked the second I sat down so kind of had this "here we go again" feeling and had to blog it to prove to myself that it's not all in my mind!!!! It really is happening stupidly loads right now and it ain't no fun ! 15 BIs below EV on party and now 7 or 8 BIs below EV on ipoker. Only been playing for 50K hands I kind of get the feeling that's some pretty horrific runbad :-(

Below are a couple of hands from my session today, the first one I flagged up because it involved playing a 3b pot out of position against a guy who was on the passive side of taggy. Apart from the fact I hit a serious one-time on the river, which is obviously awesome, I'm thinking what should I have done if this river was a brick, say the 4 or 6 instead of the 5 that happens to promote me to a set?

The second hand seems pretty pointless at first inspection, but my thinking behind flagging it up is this: I had been 3bing quite a lot on this table, and especially against this guy given that he was a button on my blind. Is it OK to use a hand such as JTs to occassionally call in this situation, given that I can probably expect him to start 4bing me light at some point if I keep hammering on him (which I had been)? Or is this always better off as a 3b?

Thanks!

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $9.27 (185.4 bb)
SB: $0.94 (18.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $5.09 (101.8 bb)
UTG: $1 (20 bb)
MP: $5.35 (107 bb)
CO: $5.75 (115 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 5
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.17, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, MP calls $0.31

Flop: ($0.98) 2 6 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.55, MP calls $0.55

Turn: ($2.08) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

River: ($2.08) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.55, MP folds

Results: $2.08 pot ($0.13 rake)
Final Board: 2 6 Q J 5
Hero mucked 5 5 and won $1.95 ($0.92 net)
MP mucked and lost (-$1.03 net)

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $6.10 (122 bb)
SB: $5.10 (102 bb)
Hero (BB): $9.27 (185.4 bb)
UTG: $5.47 (109.4 bb)
MP: $5.43 (108.6 bb)
CO: $5.48 (109.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J T
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.45, BTN folds

Results: $0.32 pot
Hero mucked Js Ts and won $0.32 ($0.17 net)

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Only been at the tables a few minutes and this shit is happening all over the place...

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $5 (100 bb)
BTN: $4.78 (95.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $9.85 (197 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
MP: $6.48 (129.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K 7
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.45, BB folds, BTN calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.95) 5 7 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.95) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $3.83 and is all-in, Hero calls $0.83

River: ($9.61) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $9.61 pot ($0.64 rake)
Final Board: 5 7 5 K Q
BTN showed Q K and won $8.97 ($4.19 net)
Hero mucked K 7 and lost (-$4.78 net)

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and...

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BB): $6.49 (129.8 bb)
SB: $6.77 (135.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 K
SB raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30) 7 2 T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.16, SB raises to $0.55, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.45

Turn: ($2.30) K (2 players)
Hero bets $5.34 and is all-in, SB calls $5.34

River: ($12.98) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $12.98 pot ($0.86 rake)
Final Board: 7 2 T K 7
Hero mucked 2 K and lost (-$6.49 net)
SB showed A A and won $12.12 ($5.63 net)

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Hand 1 = 89% favourite when money goes in.

Hand 2 = 82% favourite when the money goes in.

I swear I only just sat down 15 minutes ago and it's straight back to business as usual! I'm tilting my fucking balls off and this shit is happening all over the place already, again!!!! How the fuck is my graph supposed to do anything other than plummet horrendously when this shit is all I ever get at the tables??!? It's been happening for weeks and it's starting to really fucking piss me off. I am already 3 BIs below EV for today's session and I've only played 100 or so hands. I can't get my head around this shit it's fucking doing me in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The fucking bankroll is just evaporating at an astounding rate and I'm starting to feel like poker is the biggest suck-ass pile of shit game on the planet.

Don't you love it when you PTR someone and you see this...

Gets me every time! PMSL

So I just had a horrible losing session. Finished many BIs below EV, got B-slapped by the worst fish on the internet 6 or 7 times in situations where I was value-betting every street with the best hand then getting rivered by guys who'd been calling me down with shit. Then got it in for stacks with KK vs QQ and got felted when he flopped a Q, then spiked TPTK in a 3bet pot against a guy who was playing 65/40 and called a 3b out of position with K9 vs my AQ only for the flop to come AK9 and for me to know beyond a shadow of a doubt after playing 300 hands with the guy that I was more than strong enough to ship it against him in this spot and be good most of the time.

I was playing 2 tables of £5NL and 1 table of $10NL on the IPoker network so the below EV of E23 averages out at about 3.5 BIs I guess, and like I said, I did a lot of money val-betting fishies only to be rivered a whole bunch of times, which HM2 doesn't account for, and even the cooler against the stupidly loose guy doesn't show up on here given that I got it in with the worst hand (I was double-stacked too). Was totally shit...

Which leads me to my next point: in today's over-saturated age of information, where everyone has a coaching site subscription and knows about stuff that even winning pros wouldn't have known about 10 years ago, our edge is so tiny that it can only be eked out over tens of thousands of hands of disciplined play, assuming we even have one. Surely even one session such as this is enough to completely destroy any edge you might have, given that even if you're way good you've only got an edge of 5BB/100 or something similar, and a session like this just evaporated a chunk of your roll at the rate of -48BB/100. Seriously, when you string a bunch of these sessions together you kind of wonder how the fuck you're ever supposed to recover and turn it around.

I moved networks across to IPoker because I was offered a 45% rakeback deal (shown in yellow on the graph) which I thought would soften the blow of these types of sessions, and it does (the guy who invented rakeback deserves a medal), but in all honesty: how is our admittedly piddly edge ever supposed to be able to overcome this brutal variance when we're winning at a rate that is dwarfed by the rate we lose at when we run bad?

The sort of shit that happened 7 or 8 times tonight...

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $8.54 (170.8 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $8.34 (166.8 bb)
SB: $11.78 (235.6 bb)
BB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
UTG: $2.59 (51.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K A
UTG raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.07) 3 4 K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.65, UTG calls $0.65

Turn: ($2.37) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.44 and is all-in

River: ($5.25) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $5.25 pot ($0.35 rake)
Final Board: 3 4 K 8 4
Hero mucked K A and lost (-$2.59 net)
UTG showed T A and won $4.90 ($2.31 net)

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Is it too much to ask to just start winning?!?? Losing is really starting to get me down and the idea that if you play enough the good will even out the bad is holding less and less weight with me given that if this carries on I won't actually have a bankroll left to play with...

Before I get to a couple of hands I played badly from a couple of recent sessions, I thought I'd just waffle a little bit about the naked 4card flush draw in a game of No Limit. A lot of people at micro stakes overplay their flopped flush draws in my opinion, after all, you only get there a third of the time right? The remaining majority of the time you will miss, and if your draw is naked ie. no pairs or secondary draws to go along with it, you will find yourself at the river with nothing. How should this hand be played then? Clearly throwing all your chips in and "hoping it gets there" might not be the best option, especially if your opponent has a strong hand he isn't going to fold. Stuff like "using your FDs as a semi-bluff to balance your range when you make the same play with flopped sets" etc. probably doesn't apply to the micro-micros does it? So how exactly should we be playing our naked flush draws down here?

Clearly not like this...

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IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $17.65 (176.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $13.03 (130.3 bb)
BTN: $9.13 (91.3 bb)
SB: $10.22 (102.2 bb)
BB: $4.35 (43.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A 2
MP raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, BTN calls $0.90, 2 folds, MP calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.85) 4 T K (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.45, BTN raises to $3.60, MP folds, Hero calls $2.15

Turn: ($10.05) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60

River: ($15.25) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.03, Hero folds

Results: $15.25 pot ($1.01 rake)
Final Board: 4 T K T 5
Hero mucked A 2 and lost (-$7.10 net)
BTN mucked and won $14.24 ($7.14 net)

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Or this...

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IPoker, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP: $5.09 (101.8 bb)
CO: $5 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $7.49 (149.8 bb)
SB: $6.70 (134 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T K
MP calls $0.05, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.25, SB raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.80) Q 7 8 (2 players)
SB bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35

Turn: ($4.50) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.80, SB raises to $4.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.70

River: ($13.50) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $13.50 pot ($0.90 rake)
Final Board: Q 7 8 7 5
Hero mucked T K and lost (-$6.70 net)
SB showed Q A and won $12.60 ($5.90 net)

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What's going on here then? Hand 1 felt like I just basically played it like a pussy, but if I'd have jammed the flop and got called by top pair or whatever the outcome would have been worse. If I'd have folded the flop it just would have felt wrong (laying down the NFD in a game of NL in a 3b pot). Assuming I had little or no fold equity here, what should I have done?

Hand 2 is slightly different given that at least i didn't play like a scared kitten, but it didn't play a whole lot better.

Am I being results-orientated given that if either of these flushes had have landed I'd have smiled and banked the chips, or do I have a point? Just how should we be playing naked flush-draws in raised and 3bet pots against guys where we have little or no fold equity and balancing our ranges isn't an issue? Is folding an option? Or do we just jam and hope for the best? 

I was watching a Baluga vid a few weeks back and I remember him using the expression "internalising ranges". Well, after about 3 months and a little over 40K hands online something has just clicked for me and I am suddenly internalising ranges. Whereas before I was loosely aware of the opponents' ranges, it was only ever in tricky spots that I brought those ranges to the forefront of my mind to aid me in making a decision. I seem to have crossed some sort of online poker milestone in that I am now constantly aware of the "battle of ranges" that is occuring in every hand, not just my opponents' range/s but my perceived range as well, and this has led to me successfully barelling every street for the first time in a session yesterday against a reggy type player and getting a fold off him on the river with my air. I had previously avoided barreling at these micro-stakes and generally stuck to the golden rule of not bluffing. But when you really know where you are in the range vs. range war that is online poker, you can start getting away with stuff like that in the right spots.

I was also reading Phil Galfond's "G-Bucks" article again the other day (for about the third time), and although I understood it before, I understood it in a more pragmatic way this time around. Online poker really is a battle of ranges, and I'm feeling pleased that something has clicked and I am suddenly fully aware of this in my play. I guess all the playing and studying has paid its first big reward for me. I was reading a giant thread on 2p2 by Raptor Benefield where he talked about the milestones or epiphanies of an online poker player, well, this is my first big milestone/epiphany, so I felt it deserved a blog entry!

On a lighter note, this is my play grader on PTR, does it make me durrrr?? :-)

As I sit here typing this blog that doubtless nobody else will read, I have blood oozing from my knuckles from where I meticulously lined my computer chair up, took a deep breath and jammed two or three of the hardest punches I could muster into the plastic backing whilst exhaling and screaming "F*CK" at the top of my lungs. Yes my friends, I have almost certainly tilted my balls off this evening, and if nothing else this blog post shall serve as some sort of therapy or possibly a plan of what to do when I tilt so bad in future. The last few sessions I have clocked have all ran at 2 or 3 or 4 BIs below EV, leaving me feeling well and truly hammered by the game, and the EV doesn't even account for the KK that ran into AA pre-flop a bunch of times, the AA that ran into KK and got cracked twice, the flushes over flushes, the AQ that spiked 2pair on the river vs. AK at a point where a majority of the money had gone in and the last bet was a formality etc. etc. cooler-type stuff like that where you actually get it in with the worst hand. Maybe it does account for the Aces that got cracked by the Kings, but anyway, it's been a whole weekend of coolers and horrific beats, culminating a little while ago in my QQ getting it in on a J-hi dry flop against a guy who stacks with TT and rivers a T to make the session a 4.5 BI loser and send me reeling into my King Kong tilt.

When you watch your bankroll and all your ambitions to win and move up getting smashed all over the place by so called "brutal variance" you question why on earth anyone would opt to play this game, a game that can and routinely does behave like a complete wretch, kicking you in the proverbial testicles hard and repeatedly, and then, when they are truly swollen and painful and broken, kicking them some more. Hard. I genuinely can't accept the power this variance has over my emotions, when after dropping 3 BIs in the first 50 hands, I get into my groove, grind my way back up to breakeven over the next couple of hours, just start feeling OK about life, and then stack off twice in a row, KK vs AA on one table, and AA vs. KK (cracked) on another, within the space of about 30 seconds, only to run a flush into a bigger flush a few hands later vs. a guy who was 83/0 (yes, 83/0) and get back down to 3BIs below 0 all in the space of a few heartbeats. It seems it is so easy to lose your money in a multitude of ways, and so incredibly hard to win it (and hold onto it!), not only that, but losing takes a matter of seconds, and winning takes aaaggggeeeeesss.

Which ultimately leaves us with two choices: tell poker where to go and take up chess (now there's a real game), or accept the fact that being a poker player means eating a lot of faeces (a lot) a lot of times, and getting back to the tables to grind the money back up. It's a strange game where one must accept that they are a piece of meat to be hammered upon relentlessly by elements out of one's control, watching very real currency burn in the process. I must admit, that while a bad beat or two doesn't affect me, a few more all strung together with a couple of coolers thrown in for good measure really, really does.

Which leads me to the point of this long-winded windbag of a weblog: how do I deal with this thoroughly offensive premise? How do I control my tilt to the point where I can play this game into the future as it is my intention to do, and in the process, somehow become "OK" with the idea that I can repeatedly get my money in with the best hand and watch it all flutter away one dollar after the other. Not just in one session, but in two, three, four, five sessions back-to-back-to-back: relentless hounding of my bankroll by this variance troll.

What do you guys do? Do you just accept your tilt, turn the computer off and go out for a walk? Or do you strive to reach a zen-like state where you can genuinely watch this sh*t happen to you over and over and over and be cool with it?

Tilt is inevitably tied in with desire: our desire to win, our desire to build our rolls, move up stakes, enjoy playing the game we enjoy playing. If I can be Buddhist enough to relinquish my desire to win, build and move up surely I won't be bothered when my money goes out the door?

Something to work on (he says dabbing bleeding knuckles with tissue)...