Jubs Blog

This (http://en.donkr.com/forum/plo-from-scratch---part-3-533524) article looked at equity distributions.We had to use numerical integration to find out our total equity % on top X% of flops.

If we look at KK** vs. AA** graphed we know that we are going to have at least 50% equity on the top 19% of flops. And in these top 19% of flops we will have an average of 78.4% equity. What does confuse me is that our total equity is 14.3%, this does not makes sense with the other number but I will look into that at a later date.

A hand such as 9876ds has a very even flop distribution against AA** meaning that it hits a lot of different flops in some way as we expect so it plays well in big pots against AA** as we get enough equity to commit. Even when we are facing a 4bet pre-flop, we are still making a slightly losing play when we know all the money is going in on the flop.

AKQTss on the other hand has a slightly lesser flop distribution. It tends to either hit the flop hard or not so much compared to 9876ds which makes sense as the AA has blockers to our hand and we cannot flop back door draws as often. The Ace in our hand is very bad for our hand as it makes us pretty much only have 3 playable cards, therefore this does not bode well for us in 4bet pots. It still is okay in the single raised pot and reasonably in 3bet pots. In 4bet pots we have already committed a significant amount of chips so hitting fewer flops is not great for us. So if you are facing a 4bet and you are certain it is AA**, FOLD! unless you are mega deep stacked.

KK72r is polarized in what flops it hits well on. There are few, but they are very good when they do. We are essentially set mining vs. AA** as we do in hold'em often therefore we cannot afford to play a big pot with this hand when we are highly likely to be facing AA** and check folding lots of flops is never fun. Even facing a 3bet, we may be best just to fold as we have to be sure our villain stacks off against us. 

Ultimately KK72r and AKQTr play similarly, but we definitely like to have 9876ds when playing vs AA** no matter the situation. 4bet pots -> Lots of flops we hit fairly well > few flops we hit really hard!

Given that AA** doesn't lose to any hand in 4bet pots if we know the stacks are going in on the flop, we can be unexploited by getting in at least a 1/3 of our stack in pre-flop HU then push in on any flop (it may not be the most +EV).

In the future we can use this method to analyse situations!