jjd323's blog

I made a video at 50NL rush poker today. It mostly focuses on tight solid play, and I make a ton of notes and try and give a commentary on how I might adjust based on these incredibly slim reads. My hope is that over time the rush player pool will stabilise somewhat and those who start making notes early will profit the most.

Anyway, here is the link .

I want to describe the correct thought process for the KTo hand, where I turned the NFD and basically did a shitty job of explaining myself. Here is the hand history:

MP: $52.00
CO: $58.90
Hero (BTN): $62.80
SB: $140.80
BB: $50.00
UTG: $81.80

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with K T
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) 4 Q 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3.25) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $3.25, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

The way I should think about this is explained really clearly by Bart Hanson in his deuceplays pokercast on draws (Ep. 43) and it goes ike this: [jump in at about 12:35-23:09 mins on the podcast if you want to go straight to the relevant discussion]

• EDIT: you might also watch the 2nd and 3rd episodes of WiltOnTilt’s mathematics of NLHE to get the same content in video format.

The bet is pot, so I’m getting 2:1. I have 8 outs to make my flush, and I expect them to always be good. I need to be getting an implied 4:1 to breakeven (8 outs and 40 cards in the stub). So, by calling 3.25$ I need to win an implied pot of 13$ when I hit my outs; that means an extra 7.50$ from my opponent on the river (the pot is already $7.50 when I call). I have to make a 2/3 pot bet on the river and get called all the time just to breakeven. Alternatively, I can make a pot sized bet if villain calls 2/3 of the time.

I don’t think that a call is profitable here. This reasoning works best when you are drawing to the nuts, because there are no RIO complicating things (I can make my flush and lose to the nut flush). In this scenario I can make top pair too, but those 3 outs are not clean. I could choose to ignore both of these cases, and assume that they more or less cancel. Even with this simplification, I don’t think that I will get called anywhere near often enough to make this a breakeven play.

I just noticed that delcrossb is blogging on DC. You should probably listen to what he has to say because he talks a lot of sense on the forums and isn’t afraid to think for himself.