March 31, 2011
Been a couple days since i updated you all on whats going on and i have to say i didn't expect to be where i am before double guarantee week started. I started up my tourney grind on sunday and cashed in 1 tournament which was a huge downer on a already stressful couple of weeks financially. Monday was more of the same only cashing a couple times and i was down and out on tournaments. I know its double guarantee week but i cant handle it right now so i decided to grind for a couple days playing mix to just put positive thoughts back into my head and see my finances move in the right direction without the nasty variance.
So i played a little mix games breaking even and decided to head out to my brick and mortar to play a little live. Always fun to play live when things aren't going your way in my opinion. I get there and catch up with a buddy of mine as he was just on a trip to florida. He thankfully reminds me that im going to be moving into his place in may for 5 months while he is away for work during the summer. "Oh shit". Basically down to a 5k roll not including investments (which i don't want to draw on) I realized i had some work to do if im going to pay 2.5k rent coming up! Now i could tell him now that i cant afford it at the moment but 500 a month, utilities included, basement suite, kitchen, big screen, fully furnished i cant pass it up. Its a steal! So basically i jetted home and sat down at the mix games to hopefully put a long session in and put a dent into this upcoming expense. Well poker doesn't work like that lol and after running really bad in the big bet games i was stuck 100 bucks and really frustrated.
I am sure most of you have experienced these emotional swings that come with poker. You lose money for 11 out of 12 days and you feel hopeless. Like potentially you have been running good and now its time to think about getting a resume ready just in case you all of a sudden suck. It works the other way too when you have a huge day and figure that this will be every day from now on, not understanding how everyone doesn't play this game.
Basically i was at a loss for what to play next. "What is something that is lower variance and if i put the time in will make me some money? Ding! Limit holdem. Now i know i know limit has variance but it doesn't have the huge boom/doom switch that big bet games and tournaments have, especially at the lower stakes. Now to be completely honest i had only played limit in the mix format. I am in no way an "expert" limit holdem player but i think i have found something that i am naturally talented for. I hoped in the 1/2 and 2/4 games and proceeded to beat them for 5 big bets per hundred over 2.5k hands. I know lol sample but i just know that i wont have an issue crushing these games. I have seen people limp fold preflop ffs! Making $500 in 6ish hours is a great feeling! I never would a thought but limit holdem is fun! It might be my game :)
I definitely don't know where this complete change in direction came from but it is exiting and fresh! I am going to stick with it for april and make some money to pay for rent and move out on my own for a couple months. Now onto something i have been thinking about due to my dirty habit of browsing "BBV"
Now its not hard to find a thread on running under EV. They litter poker forums throughout the inter webs and are considered a nuisance by more experienced players, "blog worthy stuff". I was certainly a beginner once upon a time and i was the one making those threads and asking for sympathy. I think i have worked out in my head why everyone at the small stakes runs under EV.
First off i would like to say that people that post on poker forums are better than average players. On average they make better than average decisions than most of the opposition. It only makes sense that if your almost always getting it in ahead which at the micro's/small stakes is prolly most of DC, you are going to run under EV. Getting it in with bottom two against an overpair for example, Your a big favourite but not 100%. The guy is going to hit his set or counterfeit you more than 0% therefore he has equity in the pot. If he hits his 15ish percent it still records the whole pot in equity getting shipped his way which is untrue. A better way of calculating how you are running would be giving you 85% of the pot to add to your EV line leaving 15% out. EV in tracking software is a yes or no answer, a win or lose situation which is not the way it is when you make an investment in your equity. To simplify things you get it in 80% vs 20% 10 times, You are going to lose two of those pots on average but your EV line will have you winning them all, its an inaccurate way of calculating how you are truly running. Now i am sure this has been realized before but just thinking through it in my head has been a sort of "aha" moment for me. In fact the more your running under EV the better player you likely are! crazy hey. Now i would like to clarify that this is prolly not true at higher stakes where your getting it in behind a larger percent of the time then the small stakes. I would love to hear thoughts on why this isn't widely known to players as well as if there is any mathematical "issues" in my theory. Cheers