June 02, 2012
Waiting for the rapture
Something I've seen a lot of lately is other regs complaining about how the games are dead. Those "everyone's solid" jokes are, for some, starting to feel a little less amusing. Many of these people are eagerly anticipating the "re-boom" of poker. I think these people are in for a long wait. Poker will certainly rebound again and again but there's no way we are going back to 2005. No matter what happens with the popularity and perhaps more importantly availability of poker, there will still be a saturation of trained regs and there are will be many more returning from exile when the water feels warmer. What we have to realise is that it's no longer possible to use the equation: videos+bit of coaching+sit down=profit as a viable long-term solution. All of those elements are and will remain very important, but it's going to get harder. The long list of professionals actually have to become professionals. That means more preparation, more study, more live play, learning more games, better mental attitude, better game selection, better quitting, better everything.
I feel as though many who rose during the boom period shouldn't even really use the term professional. It's more like we were all exploiting a hole in the software and that hole is being closed quickly. If we look at the rough time span of 2005-2011 you could say that you didn't have to be in any way smart or dedicated to make a lot of money playing poker and this is part of the problem we are seeing now. Poker players are inherently very lazy and being forced to adapt brings much screeching and wailing. This of course doesn't apply to everyone, the top 1% of players are definitely very smart, hard-working individuals. That's why they are where they are. I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about you and me.
What I feel many of the 99% fail to realise, however, is that despite the fact that we could all do with utilising more dedication and motivation life isn't over now that the boom is. You don't have to be incredibly smart and dedicated to succeed, just look at the current generation of actors, TV personalities and screenwriters as proof of that. I sports bet professionally for years as my only source of income before playing poker and without any kind of training site cheat sheet and I'm in no way super smart or naturally brilliant. Anyone else could do the same theoretically. Many won't, because tilt and BRM and confidence will get in the way and there's no support network to fall back on as there is with poker. But they could, if they really wanted to. They could also do almost anything else, if they really wanted to.
Poker isn't going anywhere but it isn't going to get any easier. That doesn't mean the dream has to end, but it does mean you should stop waiting for the rapture.
20 Comments:
PrinzVonHapunkt posted on June 02, 2012 at 12:17 PM
Sounds like being able to beat regfish is getting more and more important
shuttle posted on June 03, 2012 at 01:21 AM
Yep, beating the regfish is the way to make the money in the highers stakes games for sure.
soleztis posted on June 03, 2012 at 04:34 AM
Obviously not the main point of your blog post, but what info were you studying during your time as a sports bettor?
inavacuum posted on June 03, 2012 at 08:57 AM
I spent a good deal of time studying the UK and Irish horse racing markets. It's a widely misunderstood field. If one was to just try and pick winners in every race, I don't think racing experts would do much better, or any better, overall than clueless punters just guessing. However, there are some ways to make a profit without resorting to trading on prices. Contrary to popular belief there are some "systems" that work, but typically they return only a small investment per season. For example, one method that will always return a profit is the "Millard Maxim". That is, you look for maiden races (a race in which no horse has ever won a race before) for 2 year olds only where the favourite is a horse that ran very well last time out. This horse will invariably be odds on, allowing you to lay it for cheaper than 1 unit. They almost never win. There are probably 30-50 of these per season and maybe 5-10 win. Each time you are risking somewhere between 0.5 and 1 unit to win 1 unit.
However, if you really want to be successful you had to develop your own ideas. I had a lot of success studying up on the breeding of each horse to determine how well that horse would handle the going that day. The going is the most important factor and far more important than the quality of the horse. It's just a fact that some horses love soft going and some love firm. A Ferrari will beat a Land Rover in a race on tarmac, but who is going to win in a swamp?
Another thing was to learn which yards would bet on their own horses. That meant monitoring each race in real-time using an API app and looking for money coming in a minute before the off. For some training yards this means nothing, for others it's extremely significant. Then you could also learn which yards would strongly prepare their horses for maidens and which wouldn't. A horse that has never raced before will be a very high price, even in a maiden, unless it's from an extremely prestigious yard. However, some yards would put out very well trained first-timers and thus their price would be artificially inflated. I had a 90/1 winner from this, as well as many 30-50/1s.
And there's much more. All in all, it's a ton of work that's mainly why I stopped when I had to start spending more time with my young family, as it was taking 12 hours or more per day to do all the studying and processing. Poker earns me slightly less, the life rewards are greater.
KRANTZ posted on June 03, 2012 at 22:02 PM
nice post
SiQ posted on June 03, 2012 at 23:22 PM
good stuff.
cam167 posted on June 07, 2012 at 16:54 PM
You the man Tim
zooroaster posted on June 27, 2012 at 19:25 PM
Nice forward progressive thinking as always. I know its probably been addressed but how did you segue into poker?
inavacuum posted on June 27, 2012 at 22:28 PM
I decided to stop sports betting because it was taking up 8-12 hours a day with all the work I was putting into it. I'd made enough and wanted to focus more on my wife and family. I gave poker a shot and decided that if I could make it work after coaching I would keep doing that and if not I'd look into something else. The most important factor was being able to work the hours I chose. This was about 5 years ago. It's been fine so far.
zooroaster posted on June 27, 2012 at 23:19 PM
Well I am glad you did. You are one of the main voices that I regularly seek out. Always very insightful.
To use your reply to a reference to the blog post: how hard would you say you've found it, as a person playing for his livelihood post BF? Do you still log a good hourly when encountering "REG'S"?
zooroaster posted on June 27, 2012 at 23:21 PM
By the way, was your avatar switch before Spain won the shootout?
inavacuum posted on June 28, 2012 at 06:12 AM
3 days before the semi-final I said I'd back Spain here http://www.deucescracked.com/topics/526351-Euro-2012?forum_id=111-Off-Topic&page=2&per_page=60
zooroaster posted on June 28, 2012 at 22:48 PM
You word would have been more than enough. Should be an interesting final. Do you have a club team? You are in the UK, no?
inavacuum posted on June 29, 2012 at 06:51 AM
http://s8.postimage.org/v2m67uyyt/plasticfantastic.jpg
Sorry.
zooroaster posted on June 29, 2012 at 20:13 PM
Its all good, I hate others a lot worse. At least its not a Manchester team. But hey, you got a Champion's League title and we got 50 million.
inavacuum posted on June 29, 2012 at 20:37 PM
I've never even been to Manchester so I'd find it hard to support a club there. Although when I was at school my entire year supported United except me and one boy who supported Forest. And they'd not been to Manchester either, that's for sure.
zooroaster posted on June 30, 2012 at 02:52 AM
Well that rationale doesn't bode too well for me...I'm just a silly American who's never been Merseyside. :(
inavacuum posted on June 30, 2012 at 07:03 AM
It's alright, different rules for foreigners. When I was a kid I used to love the Minnesota Vikings. No idea why. Probably because they had Vikings.
zooroaster posted on July 03, 2012 at 23:33 PM
I know we got a bit sidetracked talking about how great 'Pool is but seriously how much do you put into table selection, especially post BF?
I'm really being hard on myself to table select better although sometimes it can take about 10-20 minutes. I often am looking at a table I'm in line for and rejecting it just to get back on the same list. Its getting kinda hard to get the loose on the left and tight on the right but maybe since the stakes you play are so much higher that it won't matter since they are mostly regs.
inavacuum posted on July 04, 2012 at 12:20 PM
I answered your question via a new blog post.
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