February 25, 2012
Losing theoretical money in certain spots
Villain with little history (63 hands): 28/28/18 (VPIP/PFR/3bet) and 100% cbet
Here is where I need to save that extra 40bbs on the river call
Merge $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1655263
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): $31.38
BTN: $34.54
SB: $34.40
BB: $25.35
UTG: $28.20
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with 8
8
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.75
Flop: ($5.25) 7
A
6(2 players)
SB bets $2.87, Hero calls $2.87
Turn: ($10.99) A(2 players)
SB bets $4.99, Hero calls $4.99
River: ($20.97) T(2 players)
SB bets $9.73, Hero calls $9.73
Final Pot: $40.43
Preflop: I could have 4-bet which in itself could have been a mistake, but that is not my concern
Flop: A call is fine as villain was aggressive and would c-bet this flop with a huge % of range
Turn: The Ace made it more difficult for villain to have an ace, but it brought a club. I felt villain could have turned a flush draw.
River: The flush came, I lost. If villain had an Ace he would be very likely to 3 barrel, I lost. Although I don't think a boat is in villains range (way more likely to bet larger on river to get value from any Ax or flush I could possibly have in my range). I mean, he has to be on some absurd bluff line a good amount of the time for me to make this a +EV call. Villain can't have any two pair hands or anything. My range looks super strong in this spot, so it would have to be an absurd bluff on villains part to work. Although I am glad I can make big call downs, this was NOT the time to do so :(
If I want to beat these stakes/move up, I have to think in terms of theoretical exchange of money. This is a spot where I am losing money as I am making a bad call where 95%+ of my opponents would be folding correctly (even if they are a fish and finally decide to fold). If you can't tell, I lost this hand.
5 Comments:
zachd2323 posted on February 25, 2012 at 08:43 AM
Theoretical money = eventually real money
shuttle posted on February 25, 2012 at 17:28 PM
Yeah defs fold river, just by thinking through the ranges this spot might become more obvious. Keep at it!
iluv68 posted on February 25, 2012 at 18:45 PM
If I make the same decisions as villain in certain spots it doesn't matter if I win because in the long run we will just be giving money back and forth. So theoretically there is no exchange of money.
If I stack KK preflop with AA, I should not be super happy about it, as I would stack off with KK vs AA preflop. No theoretical exchange of money
shuttle posted on February 26, 2012 at 16:10 PM
Well I think it's mostly on the right track, however there's one thing that should be noted. I think you should think in terms of making the correct range vs range plays. It doesn't really matter if your opponent makes the same play or not in a certain spot, you should always be aiming to make the most +EV play. Hopefully this comment post doesn't come off as being especially pedantic, I do think this is important.
iluv68 posted on March 01, 2012 at 19:56 PM
I agree the most +EV play is what I should strive for. If I make the same EV decisions as my opponents there will be no theoretical exchange of money in the long run. In this hand I made a lower EV decision (call - -EV) than my average opponents EV decision (fold - which is 0 EV ;)); therefore, I am losing theoretical money this hand/decision.
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