Stacking Paper

I first learned of the indictment of FullTilt, Stars and AP/UB when I opened the Stars client and sat down in my usual 6max PLO $50 game. It was a Friday night and I was looking forward to some juicy action.

Instead, I got a message that said: 

We are sorry but, due to government regulations, playing real money ring games is not allowed in your area.

WTMFFFF (What The Mother-Fucking Fucker Fuck-Fuck?)

I jumped into the DC forums pronto and to my dismay, saw a long, long thread in General Discussion titled "FBI taking down poker domains".

They finally did it. They finally fucking did it. Obama, how could you?

Well, the $10 PLO FR online practice sort of helped and sort of didn't. Live PLO at the Venetian was a lot more aggressive, though mainly because of one LAG player, an Aussie who raised most of the hands that were limped to him. In general, hand selection was just as bad and post flop play was just as bad.

Unfortunately, I ran card dead most of the night. So the only interesting hands I saw were ones I wasn't in, like Queen high flush draw with no other help all-in on the flop vs. middle set. Actually, there were a lot of flop and turn shoves with set vs. draw or set vs. flush/straight and the river would pair the board. One guy quadrupled his $200 buyin shoving sets that filled up.

The one big pot I played was a threeway all-in on a A 9 8 flop. I had 9977 and got it in, unfortunately, vs. AA (limp/called preflop!) and the NFD which got there on the turn. Oh well.

I did a lot better in 1/2 NHLE. Amazingly bad play there. I dont know how many times I saw some guy bet $20 into a $100 pot on the turn, with only $60 behind.

I'm hoping to play some $500 to $1000 live PLO soon. When I've played live PLO before, the table usually had a mix of weak/passive types (limp/call to see the flop with any four, but never bet a draw or medium value, go completely ape shit with the stone nuts, though) and lagtard bluffers. So to practice, I figured I'd play $10 PLO full-ring on Stars. Plenty of weak/passive types, though not many lagtards. Close enough. They definitely were showdown monkeys: about 

I just booked my first 1000 hands and thought I'd blog about what I've figured out so far, in terms of adjustments. I also will mention a couple of things that surprised me. I know 1000 hands isn't much, but even multitabling 3-4 table, full-ring is sooooo slooooow. I'll keep the small sample in mind and take all of the following with a grain of salt.

Adjustments

• Tighten up my preflop EP-MP opening range. Since everyone wants to see a flop, you can end up playing 4+ way in the middle of the field or even in the worst position if the blinds fold.
• Loosen up my preflop LP range, a lot. Post flop play is generally terrible and predictable, so many hands are playable for fold equity and value in position.  About half the hands I'd normally fold, I limp behind with. Even some hands I'd normally raise 1 or 2 limpers with, like AT54ss, I just limp behind with. A raise just bloats the pot and gets almost no isolation.
• Speaking of isolation, the best time to iso is in the CO or LP and preflop goes limp, limp, limp, etc., raise from mid to late position and I'm on the BTN. Then I 3B reasonably wide, about the same ranged I'd 3B a CO open from a non-nit in 6max. Just about the only way to get a flop down to 3 handed or less, short of 4B/5B (and even that isn't a guarantee).
• Post flop, definitely bet big for value before the river, since they will see any flop and turn with any draw and any 2P or better. I don't know how many times I saw a 3 way showdown where bottom two pair just kept calling every bet and raise on a board that couldn't possibly be anything other than straights or flushes, or both.
• At the river with medium to strong value, no one will call a big bet. Most players have no bluffing range on the river (see below), so vbetting has to be done gently.
• Even better, when they miss the river and don't have two pair, they fold (see below).
• If the river is a scare card and they check/called down and then bet, usually min, they have it. I crying called enough to be pretty sure they are rarely bluffing.
• If the river makes a straight or flush and you have top 2P or a set, or pairs when you have a straight or flush, it's basically a bet/fold situation every time.

Surprises

• I was surprised at how effective bluffing was, particularly on the river. My usual mantra for live play is, "Don't bluff the clueless." But after seeing such incredibly timid play and totally predictable draws, I started experimenting with chasing draws myself and then bluffing when I missed. I could check/call down in position and if the river was heads-up, I could bet total air on any blank and pretty reliably get a fold. I didn't even have to bet much, since they min bet the nuts so often they expect a small bet to mean the nuts. When I did get looked up, they had at least two pair.
  
• I was surprised at how crazy the lagtards would bluff. I saw one lagtard bluff all-in on a 4-way flop, after pre was 4B, with only 1 PSB behind and the flop was Ace high. Naturally the four bettor had AA. The bluffer had bottom pair and no redraw. None. Totally futile.

Some mixed game links I want to remember:
I Love Badugi
Wasting Away in Badugiville
Badugi Predraw decision

On Saturday I played a great session. It was one of those unfortunately rare times when I was totally in the zone from the first hand to the last, playing my A+ game. I was very confident in the correctness of every decision I made and, just to be sure, I double checked my hand histories in post session review and everything looked good.

The fact that I ran 3BI below AIEV and only ended up breaking even didn't even bother me. Despite numerous suck-outs that normally would put me on tilt, I was able to laugh them all off. Despite being down 2BI in the first 5 minutes of play and down 4BI in the first 30 minutes of play, I just kept at it and kept focussed and grinded my way back up to even. I only had to suck-out once, too: AAKTss into TT98ss on a KT8 two-tone flop (not my suit), all-in, bricked turn, King on the river to save my ass.

On Sunday I played another session, but I did not play nearly as well. I made two full stack mistakes early on, stacking off on the turn when I had no fold equity and where I overestimated my value by a lot. I did regroup after that, took a break, got back into the zone and played my A+ game again, but ran so incredibly bad it was stunning. I was literally stunned and completely demoralized by the end of the session. I could not win a pot to save my life. Absolutely nothing worked. When I tried to steal, I got check raised or three-bet. When I tried to tighten up and trap, I ran card dead. When I played straight-forwardly, I ended having to fold over and over again, probably to bluffs, but who knows? Every time I had a made hand on the flop, the turn would bring the obvious draw in. I got donked so many times it was ridiculous. Every time I had a combo draw worth playing, I bricked/bricked. When I finally got dealt truly excellent starting hands, like AKQJds, I 3B PF, got called in 3 spots and flopped 336 rainbow, with a bet and raise in front of me. There was nothing hard about situations like that, easy fold in every case, but fold after fold after fold does not make for rewarding play.

As just one indicator of how bad I was running, I flopped top-two vs. a set three times and separately, I shoved top boat into quads twice.

Luckily, I didn't tilt. I kept trying to adjust as the playing field changed. I play Rush and I'm used to having to adjust to a new table every round. Rush tends to average out, particularly with lots of players multitabling. If most of the field is weak/tight, most tables/hands are weak/tight. If most of the field is LAG/aggro, most tables/hands are LAG/aggro. There would be an occasional exceptional table (LAG/aggro in a weak/tight field, or weak/tight in a LAG/aggro field), but usually, hand to hand is pretty consistent. In this session, the extremes that I'd go through were unlike anything I'd seen in Rush before. I'd go through one hand where no matter where I opened, I got 3Bed by the next seat, to the next hand where I'd open and everyone would fold, to the next hand where no matter where I opened, everyone after would cold call. It was brutal!

All the way through the session, I wondered if I should just quit and wait until things settled down to a more consistent field. I probably should have. I probably would have saved about 4BI if I had done that. But I kept at it and the field did finally settle down to the more usual weak/tight average. I was finally able to move some chips and get back into stealing my fair share, but I could not get my good hands to pay off.

I ended the session down 8BI, just about the worse session in terms of results I've ever play, without being on tilt.

Even though I ended up down $9 after a 3 hour session three-tabling today, I'm confident it had more to do with bad luck than with bad play. For one thing, my EV adjusted USD won was $69.20. For another, I just felt like I was in the zone. Both my value play and my fold equity play were hitting on all cylinders. Despite a horrible and deep suckout where I was the 82% favorite to win when the money went in, I didn't tilt and I stuck with my program of getting more value out of my best hands.

Here are two hands that reminded me why I play this game and how fun it can actually be.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 895082
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $22.26
Hero (UTG): $31.89
MP: $28.42
CO: $39.95
BTN: $27.52
SB: $70.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with T 9 A T
Hero calls $0.25, MP calls $0.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($1.25) 3 7 T(5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, MP calls $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($7.50) Q(5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, MP calls $7.50, BTN calls $7.50, SB folds, BB folds

River: ($30.00) 8(3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets $6, Hero calls $6, MP folds

Final Pot: $42.00
Hero shows T 9 A T (three of a kind, Tens)
BTN shows J 5 Q 8 (two pair, Queens and Eights)
Hero wins $39.90
(Rake: $2.10)

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 895083
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $51.11
BB: $22.22
UTG: $104.83
Hero (MP): $30.25
CO: $26.17
BTN: $21.97

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with J 6 J 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, SB raises to $2.80, BB calls $2.55, Hero calls $1.95

Flop: ($8.40) 9 3 J(3 players)
SB bets $6.84, BB raises to $19.42 all in, Hero raises to $27.45 all in, SB calls $20.61

Turn: ($82.72) 5(3 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($82.72) 5(3 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $82.72
SB shows Q J T A (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
BB shows Q 9 Q 3 (two pair, Queens and Fives)
Hero shows J 6 J 6 (a full house, Jacks full of Fives)
Hero wins $16.06
Hero wins $63.66
(Rake: $3.00)

Story of my life recently. It's not all coolers and suckouts, either. I'm getting it in bad too often when I'm covered by Villain. When I get it in good or when it's my turn to suckout, it's against a short stack.

The one good thing going for me right now is that my fold equity play is kicking ass. It helps that most of the player pool is weak/tight. Stealing and bluffing is fun and I don't mind winning lots of small and medium sized pots, but it's not enough to compensate for my big losses when I stack off.

The pain of down session after down sesssion has finally gotten to the point where I can't pass it off as bad luck anymore. I'm doing something fundamentally wrong. Maybe several things.

There's one change I'm trying out, thanks to a suggestion (nagging?) by Orestto. I'm concentrating on increasing my bet sizes when I have an equity edge under the right conditions, which is pretty freakin' often given how bad play is at $25 PLO Rush. Every time I decide to bet less than pot, I figure out what I think is best and then add 2BB to it. On a $2.50 flop pot I used to bet $1.50 HU on all but the wettest flops, which seems absurdly high when the average cbet is $0.50. Now I'm betting $2. On a $5 turn HU I used to bet $3.50. Now I bet $4.

I also need to stop paying off. Since I do so much bluffing myself, I think everyone is bluffing. It just ain't true--duh, when a weak/tight shoves the turn, he ain't kidding around.I think if I just could get myself to fold to an unexpected bet or raise on the turn and a shove on the river when an obvious draw comes in, I'd at least be breaking even. The things is, I've successfully bluff catched the river enough to make it very hard to lay down a decent hand. I guess I should try to stack off on more turns to avoid that error.

Bookmarks to some PLO forum threads I want to remember.
Solid State PLO : Episode Three
Starting PLO, Tips Advice Plzplzplz
Facing 3bet from BTN with KJT8ss
Most interesting hand I've played in a while
Observations on FTP Rush 25 PLO 6max
Observations on FTP Rush 100 PLO 6max
100 PLO Top2 deep vs crazy
Consensus on open limping 6max?
Small to Very Small River Bets
Is this ever a check back?
PF Starting Hand Framework
So we fold the nuts here right?
DxB is in the Well
Preflop adjustments: 15/10 to 25/15
Playing around with some equities
Double Weak Flush Draws...
counting straight outs been playing for 2 months now
4B HU preflop calc threads:
   Back to Back hands
   a math problem - AAxx vs TT55
   Some preflop 3bet/4bet spots theory
Limping behind in late position.
NLHE: how long is the long term (links to MTT variance calcs by NoahSD)

I was fooling around with my HEM/Omaha data and thought I'd record a snapshot. These are all based on 47k hands of FTP Rush $25 PLO.

When I was on the BTN (7889 total):

• Unopened: 32.9%, 2593 hands
• 1 Raiser: 30.4%, 2402 hands
• 1 Limper: 21.3%, 1678 hands
• 1 Raiser + Caller(s): 7.2%, 570 hands
• 2+ Limpers: 6.7%, 527 hands
• 2 Raisers: 1.5%, 119 hands  

Of the 65 times I raised the BTN behind 2+ limpers, I only got a fold out 3 times. I iso'd to 1 player 12 times. I failed to iso to 2 or less 20 times (i.e., flop was 4+ way).

Of the 33 times I cbet into 2 or more callers that checked in front of me, a cbet took down the pot 24 times, so at least that part I remembered right: a lot of fit/fold going on.

17 I was donked into: of those, I folded 6 times, all pot sized and I missed the flop, 3 polarized calls (I either flopped the nuts or nothing and intended to float the turn), 8 raises, usually of small donk bets like 1 or 2BB, 3 of which I ended up raise/folding when they back raised or someone else check/raised.

12 I checked behind on wet flops, expecting a check raise where I didn't have a strong enough hand to call.

Of the times I cbet, I got check/raised 5 times.

I limped behind 2+ limpers 56 times.

Which means I folded behind 2+ limpers 393 times. That seems crazy high to me. My BTN vs. 2+ limpers VPIP is 25.4 and my PFR is 13.1, both seem low vs. multiple  limpers. Drilling down into the hands I folded, I do see a lot of crappy hands, like 9992 rainbow, K975 monotone, QT74 rainbow, etc . HEM/Omaha lets you sort by some sort of hand ranking, looks like straight collation of card ranks without regard to suits or pairs, so AKTT rainbow sorts to the top, while AK53ss sorts below, and AQQJss sorts below that. 

I only folded 22 suited Aces. Most of those were pretty weak, like A477 with 3 hearts, but a handful were decent and I probably should have played, like AKT5.

I folded 49 double suited hands. Most were crap, but a handful were decent, like A8J2.

Overall, I probably should have played 15% of the hands I folded and 10% of those for a raise, making my VPIP closer to 40% and PFR closer to 23%, which still seems low vs. multiple limpers. On the other hand, maybe not, given how no one folds and most flops end up at least 3 way.

The last 745 hands I played at FTP Rush $25 PLO, three tabling.

Finally and decisively broke a 20BI downswing that I whined about in my previous blog post. That first big hand was a 3-way that I sucked out on, but all the rest were righteous wins. It felt good to get it in on the flop as a favorite and actually win a few times for a change.

Long may it last!