HotDiggy1121

EPISODE 8
Variance , downswings, and Tilt management

• Variance = results varying from your expected value or win rate. Basically, how good and bad you can run.
• SD: Use standard deviation to capture variance. Using 2 SD You play:
• $11 SNG @ 15% ROI. You should make $825 after 500. (many pros put in thousands of games per month.)
• Win the above win rate, you’re 95% likely to be +825 or -$850. You can play a lot of games and still be negative.
• You can’t maintain 15% win rate @ medium or high buyins.
• As players get better and fish go broke, attainable ROI can lower at certain games for periods of time. Example: play Kos, then 180s, then 45s, to find soft games.
• Some games are soft at times and some games are tough at times.
• Bankroll depends on your goals.
• As a result of changing games, it can take +2,000 games to see good picture of true win rate. It takes a long time for numbers ot normalize.

• If your goals are to be slightly good recreational player, then 30buyins is good. If you go broke you can add more oney and you can always move down.
• Multi-table Turbo SNG needs you’ll need 100 buyins.
• Losing players will never have a big enough bankroll.
• Goal of playing and studying Is to GET BETTER. Don’t pay too much attention to win rate. GET BETTER. MOVE UP. GET BETTER.
• Breakeven stretches and downswings can last over 1,000 games. Top regs have noted 2,000 breakeven streak have been noted. This is mostly at turbos. Variance can be gross.
• 100 buyin turbo downswings have been noted. From ROI players. Good players can still swing 30,40,50.
  • THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT EPISODE OF THE SERIES in AMT’s opinion. *
• The better the players get overall, bankroll requirements may gro to be even more conservative.
  TILT
• Anything that is less than you’re A-Game.
• No one is a perfect poker player.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• Stay confident, not cocky. Constantly work to improve your game. If you are trying to improve, your proving to yourself that your aren’t cocky.
• Stick with what your skill level and bankroll allow. Be honest with yourself.
• Not understanding variance is the main cause of tilt.
• Don’t worry about swings and ROI over small samples. Numbers don’t matter in the short term. FOCUS on the quality of your decisions.

• Main goal is to prevent tilt.
• AMT goes weeks without looking at account balance. – TRY THIS!!
• Sometimes tilt happens. Understand this and accept this. Understand and accept it in-game and in reflection.
• Need to understand what triggers tilt. I think I get tilted by when my BR is too small and also when it’s too big. Need to stop checking balance constantly. Account balance should not impact decisions.
• NOTE: Schedule my poker time. Friday night and Sunday are play days. ///////////////Monday is SNGPT and HH review day. Wednesday is forum night.
• If you feel really shitty after a session, say out loud “I’m feeling ridiculously shitty about poker”
• Sometimes studying and honestly aren’t enough. SOMETIMES you need a break. It’s not always the answer to ttry ot play through it.
• Only you know best.
• Reflect and remember that it’s not always the in-game decisions that are the problem.
• Other Tips:
• Try a new game – focus on fundamentals. Drop down in buyins when you do this though.
• Spend time specifically away from the computer, not just poker.
• Try cash games for fundamentals.
• Focus on breathing. Deep breathes alter heart rate and impacxt bloob pressure.
• Exercise. Eliminate your ego. Detach yourself from your decisions and results
• Gain control of your game and your mind.