playing a game for a living = +EV

So this is a spot I have trouble with occasionally. So I’m gonna take it, analyze it, toss some ideas around, and post it on the forums to see what other people have to say.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $256.50
BB: $118.70
UTG: $104.50
MP: $40.50
CO: $96.30
BTN: $101.50

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is SB with K K
UTG raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, UTG calls $7.50

Flop: ($23.00) 2 A 4 (2 players)

Final Pot: $23.00

A fun situation. This time, the villain is a complete unknown. I had less than 100 hands on this dude. But, thanks to hold em manangers shitty HUD, it showed me as having played 0 hands on him. So we’ll first treat him as a complete unknown, then look at his actual stats.

First. Against an unknown. Lets examine his typical range of hands. I 3 bet his UTG raise from the BB, which is a fairly strong 3bet, so his calling range likewise will be pretty strong. Probably AJ-AQ, 77-JJ (He may have 22-66 here also if hes raising any PP from UTG and likes to call 3 bets light, but i’ll give avg unknown 77+, and he most likely would have 3bet QQ+), and then some random suited connectors and hands like J10 sooted. So we have 2 options. Check or cbet. Most people at 100NL aren’t super aggro. So if we check, he may fire with his air, check behind his pocket pairs, and bet his hands that contain aces. I don’t really know what he has if he bets. If I cbet, he’ll most likely fold his air, call his pocket pairs, call his aces. Here’s the line I think makes sense. I like betting to get value from all those middle pairs, and to find out where I’m at. If he calls, then checks the turn when I check, he most likely has middle pairs. He probably bets an ace, maybe not AJ b/c of kicker issues, but yes. Vs someone who was very cally I could mess around with throwing a less than half pot size bet for value on the river if turn went check/check. Now if I check, he bets his air, and my hand is pretty faceup once I check/call. So he has the opportunity to barrel me, which puts me in a crappy situation, and I hate life against some random unknown. So I think I like betting here.

Second. Against the actual villain, who I didn’t know anything about at the time. His stats are 44/25 over 140 hands, and is a cally, aggro phish. He calls 87% of 3 bets. So his range here is uber wide. A ton of suited connectors, pairs, all sorts of junk. His range has a ton more air in it on this flop. If I cbet, he may float me, I have no way of knowing. So I could cbet, then check/call the turn if I knew he was float happy, and be put in a nasty spot on the river if he shoves. I could also check/fold the turn, which is probably correct until I know more about how he plays. I think I like checking the flop better vs this guy to let him bet his vast amounts of air, with the intention of check calling the flop and turn, unless bet sizes are ginormous on both. And I think folding the river if he shoves, b/c it does not look like I am folding at any point. More reads on this guy would help a ton, but this is a spot that I have trouble with and would love to hear some thoughts.