July 16, 2009
So following on from yesterdays post about fold equity I wasnâ€™t exactly sure how to apply it to my game. So after thinking about it for a day I came to the conclusion it was down to hand combinations. If he is willing to check raise then bet again on the turn enough hands as a bluff that he will fold 39% of the combinations to a shove then the move becomes profitable.
So I have to estimate his check raising range count the combinations. Then count the combinations of hands I have said he will call my shove my and work out the percentage of hands he folds. Hopefully the difference will be higher than 39% meaning it was a profitable shove.
Iâ€™m not exactly sure if that is right, it sounds it but could be total rubbish. But anyway the hands I have decided he could check raise with are:
This is quite a loose range maybe, basically I have him check raising any pair on that board including under pairs he holds. This could be a pretty wide range as he might not check raise every under pair as a bluff, nor a 9 for example. But hopefully this will make up for the complete bluff check raises that he could make holding hands I havent included. I guess with more experience this is where you have a better idea of hand ranges, but for now I think this will do.
And his already mentioned calling range contains:
So 36/139 = 25% Meaning he is calling with 25% of hands and folding 75% making it a profitable shove.
As mentioned Iâ€™m not exactly sure how accurate this is because I think I have given him a far far to large check raising range, but I think as an excercise in getting my head around the math it works ok.
Hopefully I havent made any glaring errors and can get a couple of responses with where Iâ€™ve gone wrong if I have.