Beginning HU Rambles

Full Tilt Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $52.60
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with K A
Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) K Q 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB raises to $7, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.00) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $15.00, Hero raises to $44.10, BB calls $26.50 all in

Final Pot: $100.00
Hero shows K A
BB shows 9 Q
Hero wins $96.90
(Rake: $0.50)

This is a hand I played last night. It was like the second or third hand of the match against this opponent, which sorta explains the hand a little. Basically I dont really give much credit to a check raise so early in the match, same theory as the first 4bet being a bluff and all that. So when the flush comes on the turn I was convinced he didnt have it, and against anything else I felt I had decent equity. So lets see if I was right.

To find necessary Fold Equity of my turn shove.

I’ve given the villain a fairly tight calling range of:

99,KQs,K9s,QsJs,QsTs,Q9s,JTs,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,KQo,JTo

With all the suited hands being made flushes. Obviously this range completely destroys us, but I cant see him continuing with anything weaker on this board.

EV = [EV] * x + [EV] * [1-x]

EV of a call = EV = [our equity] * [total pot] – [cost of our call]
EV = .21 * 100 – 41.5
EV Call = -20.5

EV Fold = 32
EV Call = -20.5

Set EV to 0 to find fold equity needed to break even

0 = 32x + (1-x) * -20.5
0 = 32x + (-20.5 + 20.5x)
0 = 32x + (20.5x + -20.5)
0 = 52.5x – 20.5
x = 20.5/52.5
x = 0.39

Fold Equity needed = 39% to break even.

So how do I use this information to help me? I guess thats what I’m supposed to work out next. In this particular hand the villain needing to fold only 39% of the time doesn’t sound particularly high, but then I dont have enough experience to gauge whether villain has enough bluffs or weak hands to fold 39% of the time on this board. Any ideas on how you go about working this out would be good.