Beginning HU Rambles

I love poker, I hate poker. Friday night I felt I couldn’t lose, just logging winning session after winning session. Now I feel like I cant win, think I’ve dumped off about 2.4k in 4 days including 800 twice to 2 different people 1 tabling! Maybe I should have read my last blog entry. Oh well if you cant whine in your own blog where can you? Obviously if I’m ignoring my stop loss levels you can take it for granted I haven’t been doing the session reviews either.

Now there is sort of a reason for this, I’m stuck trying to get through the whole Wheel of Time series, I got the newest book for my birthday back in November, but wanted to read them all again before I read that one. So started book 1 around Christmas and am ploughing my way through them again, currently on number eight. And I’ve also got 2 weeks off work over the next month so plan on putting in loads of hands, watching loads of videos and doing loads of work on my game then, so I’m sorta putting everything off till then.

In fact I’ve been pretty slack recently about everything, not watching videos, not logging hands except when I’m stuck, so all the ingredients for a big downswing are right there! Thing is I’m reluctant to call it a downswing, people seem to like to use it every time they log 1 or 2 losing sessions when really its just generally shitty play I expect. I know it is in my case. Obviously there was a certain amount of run bad, with some stupid hands like getting it in vs a dominated top pair and losing to backdoor flushes a few times, and 1 guy calling me down with any pair or even ace high in some cases and just owning me. But I could have quit them and saved myself loads. I might post some hands in another update when I’m not writing this from work.

Strangely ptr hasn’t picked up any of yesterdays hands, it always seems to miss some hands from my big losing sessions, but not picking any up is weird. I mention ptr because of my graph.

Obviously I have problems with losing sessions and its something I really need to sort out, yeah the graph shows a pretty decent slope over the last few months, but look how much I’m losing when I do lose. Just lopping off some of these would drastically improve my overall win rate. Guess its time for EPTPE.

So week 1 of my new poker regime and I’m slacking already, no session reviews. A 10 buy in losing session, and plenty of retarded tilt plays. Despite that I think I’ve pulled it round at the end of the week and logged a winning week. Therefore I need a set schedule! That I will ignore or change or workaround, but its the intention that’s important right?

I will perform a minimum of 3 session reviews a week! Tuesdays, Thursdays and a weekend seem the best days because with work and working out rest of week I’d hardly have time to play.

Set stop losses. Whilst I sorta have a stop loss at 10 buy ins, I’ll quite happily do that in one session. I think I should limit session stop losses to 5 buy ins. And 3 buy ins versus 1 player, unless its a 2 table match then it can be 5. I make the difference because most of my worst days start off with a 5 buy in loss 1 tabling a fish.

Fold more rivers.

Find a coach.

The last one is the one that I need to think about most. I mean I know what my biggest leaks are. I act to fast, I don’t think I’ve ever used time bank once in my life. When I have a big hand I resort to level 1 thinking. I call on the river far too much.

Now seeing as I know all these things, do I still get a coach? Or try fix these leaks myself first?

Now obviously I want a coach at some point, but how the hell do you pick one? DC’s ratio of HU coaches to 6 max is a bit one sided. And to be honest I’m a bit reluctant to spend that much money on something I’m not sure about. So I guess I will have to find a cheaper one on 2+2 for a “test” run. Any recommendations?

Although saying that both Jk3a and Syous do look very enticing. I’m very eager to see Syous’s first video as his description states he’s not a math based player. Thats music to the ears of someone who struggles with basic addition.

So I guess its wait and see on the coaching front for now, and next update I should have done atleast 1 session review and have a few hands to talk about.

Seeing as its the done thing to update your blog at new years I thought I might join it too. Lets see, my last update is July, wow so long ago. I’m still playing heads up currently at 100NL. I did make it to 200NL for a couple of days, but decided to cash a load out and move back down to 100.

I dont think I’m really ready for 200NL yet, I only have a moderate win rate at 100 and so many leaks as well as tilt problems some times so I want to work on those, especially upping my win rate at 100 before I move up again. Plus I need to rebuild the roll.

So once again its time to start with the blog as a way of doing session reviews. I really need to force myself to do this as I think its one of the things stopping me progressing faster along with taking more time over decisions. So hopefully these two will come together with me thinking more at the table and having clearer ideas of ranges and equities in certain spots. I’m also contemplating getting a coach. Nobody amazingly expensive, just someone who wins at 100/200 at a higher rate than me who can point out a few leaks or where I should be focusing my attention.

So thats it for now. Happy new year and all that stuff!

Not played too much since my last update, mainly due to a Friday night bender that hand me in bed all day Saturday, and I’m finding it harder than I thought it would be to pick hands to analyse mathematically. I’m not sure if this is because I dont know enough maths or just some hands play themselves.

For example the other day I 3bet someone who was 150BB deep, I had him covered, with KK and he insta jammed. Now I could do the maths on this but it seems pretty pointless because nobody is ever folding KK here anyway.

I’m slowly rebuilding the bank roll, over 1k now so 20buy ins for 50nl rather than the 7 I was down to at one point.

Oh yeah I did notice in the secret HQ forum a math group starting up so I may consider cross posting some of my blog entries there in the hope of getting feedback. Here’s the link for anyone interested.

http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/28-Secret-HQ/24270-x-Math-Group-x

Here is another basic river equity calculation from a hand last night. The way the hand played out I initially thought oh shit I’ve let him get there but once you think about your equity against his range of hands its an instant call. Well i was never folding anyway, but its also a good example of how slow playing can induce people to stack off light, especially at heads up.

Full Tilt $50.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $90.35
BB: $86.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with A A
Hero raises to $1.50, BB raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $10, BB calls $7.50

Flop: ($20.00) A 4 K (2 players)
BB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

Turn: ($33.00) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $10.50, Hero calls $10.50

River: ($54.00) J (2 players)
BB bets $59.05, Hero calls $59.05

Final Pot: $172.10
Hero shows A A
BB shows T T
Hero wins $171.60
(Rake: $0.50)

Obviously the result of the hand might sway his range a little, but if we assign him a range of all sets on the flop except AA because I have it. Tens plus, strong 2 pair hands and the straight that gets there on the river we have almost 63% equity against that range. So even though the over bet shove on the river is a slight concern as you might expect him to slow down with some of this range, it proves that the river is always a call.

So if we use the slightly different equity calculation from before just for fun then:

EV = [our equity] * [what we win] – [villains equity] * [what we lose]
EV = [.63] * [59.05 + 54] – [.37] * [59.05]
EV = [.63] * [113.05] – [.37] * [59.05]
EV = 71.22 – 21.84
EV = 49.38

So if we make this call we stand to make $49.38, pretty good but obviously who can fold top set in a 3bet pot!

The following hand is from last week, before I tilted off all my money. It seems like a decent hand to use to work out the equity of a river call.

Full Tilt $50.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $50.00
BTN/SB: $90.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 3 J
BTN/SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2.50, BTN/SB calls $2

Flop: ($5.00) J A Q (2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, BTN/SB calls $3

Turn: ($11.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

River: ($11.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $85.00, Hero calls $44.50 all in

Final Pot: $100.00
BTN/SB shows K 9
BTN/SB wins $99.50
(Rake: $0.50)

Villain was one of those players that should be really profitable but just seem to own me all the time. The kind that limps every button and calls all raises. Re-raising this out of the big blind is probably a bit loose but I’m still experimenting on ways to beat this kind of player. Without any luck so far…

On the river I go for a check-raise and get shoved into instead. The board pairing obviously concerns me a little but I cant fold the 2nd nut flush against this guy. So to work out our equity on the call here we have to assign the villain a range. Now I see some crazy shoves at 50nl HU, but I think this kind of player was more the kind who calls down light but doesnt play big pots unless he has a big hand. I cant decide if he would shove every flush he has here, but I think he probably would. So therefore his range is:

66,Ac6c,KdQd,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d,Kd7d,Kd6d,Kd5d,Kd4d,Kd3d,Kd2d,JdTd,Jd9d,Jd8d,Jd7d,Jd6d,
Jd5d,Jd4d,Jd3d,Jd2d,Td9d,Td8d,Td7d,Td6d,Td5d,Td4d,Td3d,Td2d,9d8d,9d7d,9d6d,9d5d,9d4d,9d3d,
9d2d,8d7d,8d6d,8d5d,8d4d,8d3d,8d2d,7d5d,7d4d,7d3d,7d2d,5d4d,5d3d,5d2d,4d3d,4d2d,3d2d,Ac6h,
Ac6s

Basically this is all diamond hands not including a A,Q or a 6 as they are definitely in his range. A6, is definitely in there, as is 66, but I have left out JJ, AJ and AQ as I think they would have bet the turn trying to build a pot. Versus this range my equity is 61.7%.

EV of a call = [our equity] * [total pot] – [cost of our call]

.61 * 100 – 44.5 = 16.5

So the expected value of the river call is $16.5 dollars. Sounds a lot better than the 44.5 it actually cost me so thats why doing this math is useful as it forces me to look beyond being results oriented.

So a little basic, but hopefully I can keep this going with more complicated stuff as I get more comfortable doing these caluclations.

Well after running so good for a few weeks at .25 /.50 I managed to doomswitch myself, go on massive tilt and destroy my roll all over 1 weekend.

I’m starting to hate the weekends for heads up games, I find them so much better in the week. it just seems like there are to many regs sitting at too many tables to get any good games at the weekend. Compare this with 6 max where the games are usually pretty damn good at the weekend because of all the random people logging on for fun then its really annoying.

So Friday night I was struggling to get a good game going at .25/.50 so sat at a .50/1 table and got some action immediately. Now I guess I’m not properly rolled for 100nl heads up having only 20 buy ins at this point, but I didnt feel to bad taking a shot. I ran pretty well against what seemed to be a really bad reg and was up 4.5 buy ins when I quit him. After watching a video I decided to play some 100nl 6 max during the happy hour and this is where things went wrong. The only reason I did it was because I dont seem to be making any points playing heads up and I’m so close to a new monitor that the 5x points seemed to good to turn down. How I wish I had now.

I immediately drop 3 buy ins in 30 minutes, which is fairly standard for me at 6 max 100nl coz I can never hold up ever there for some reason. The usual standard 2 pair vs top pair and the board pairs on the river type of stuff. After I quit 6 max I managed to get a game against the same guy from earlier, it starts off well as I pretty much make back all of what I had lost, but I guess I was still on tilt because then things go terrible.

He had a habit of check calling draws then overbet donk shoving the river when he hit, and I had a habit of calling with top pair. :( in the end he won everything back and quit me even when I started tilt chatting shit. My fault really but probably saved me money, so I was down 100 for the night from being almost 500 up. Here is an example of 1 such hand.

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $216.90
BB: $162.10

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN/SB with A A
Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) 3 T J (2 players)
BB bets $6.00, Hero raises to $18, BB calls $12

Turn: ($42.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33.00, BB calls $33

River: ($108.00) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $108.10, Hero calls $108.10

Final Pot: $324.20
BB shows 8 9
BB wins $323.70
(Rake: $0.50)

So on the river I managed to convince myself he has a J and call. But thats nowhere near as bad as:

Full Tilt Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN/SB: $193.10
Hero (BB): $305.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with 9 A
BTN/SB raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, BTN/SB calls $7

Flop: ($20.00) 8 Q 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BTN/SB calls $12

Turn: ($44.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $25.00, Hero calls $25

River: ($94.00) T (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $146.10, Hero calls $146.10

Final Pot: $386.20
BTN/SB shows A 8
BTN/SB wins $385.70
(Rake: $0.50)

I cant even explain this one. The best I could have hoped for was calling 146 for a split. Just pure tilt madness.

Obviously this much tilt was’nt quite enough for me so I woke up Saturday morning and tilted off 400 at 50nl heads up, wasted another 100 playing a tournament drunk and getting nowhere. Then Sunday started off better I was up a few buy ins at 50nl HU and again decided to try 100nl 6 max for the points. Once again lost 3 buy ins with some ridiculous hands. Obviously its easy to say I ran bad, but I’m sure I’m doing it wrong because its happening all the time. I guess I get into too many marginal spots.

So finally I sit at 100nl HU with my bankroll now under 1k, this time I did run bad. 2 pair into over pair and board paired on river, 2 pair into over pair plus flush draw and he hit 2 pair on river Well I guess last 1 was more of a flip. And finally an over pair on a paired flushing board, when he had trips not the flush draw I thought.

So now I’m back where I was just over a month ago at 600 again. Time to rebuild and enough of the whining and bad beats stories!

So following on from yesterdays post about fold equity I wasn’t exactly sure how to apply it to my game. So after thinking about it for a day I came to the conclusion it was down to hand combinations. If he is willing to check raise then bet again on the turn enough hands as a bluff that he will fold 39% of the combinations to a shove then the move becomes profitable.

So I have to estimate his check raising range count the combinations. Then count the combinations of hands I have said he will call my shove my and work out the percentage of hands he folds. Hopefully the difference will be higher than 39% meaning it was a profitable shove.

I’m not exactly sure if that is right, it sounds it but could be total rubbish. But anyway the hands I have decided he could check raise with are:

TT 6
88 6
77 6
66 6
44 6
33 6
22 6
AJs 3
ATs 3
A9s 3
KTs 2
KJs 2
KQs 2
QTs 3
QJs 3
J9s 3
JTs 4
T9s 3
98s 3
AJo 9
ATo 9
KTo 6
KJo 6
KQo 6
QTo 9
QJo 9
JTo 9

139 combo’s

This is quite a loose range maybe, basically I have him check raising any pair on that board including under pairs he holds. This could be a pretty wide range as he might not check raise every under pair as a bluff, nor a 9 for example. But hopefully this will make up for the complete bluff check raises that he could make holding hands I havent included. I guess with more experience this is where you have a better idea of hand ranges, but for now I think this will do.

And his already mentioned calling range contains:

99 3
KQs 2
K9s 2
QsJs 1
QsTs 1
Q9s 2
JTs 4
8s7s 1
8s6s 1
7s6s 1
KQo 6
JTo 12

36 combo’s

So 36/139 = 25% Meaning he is calling with 25% of hands and folding 75% making it a profitable shove.

As mentioned I’m not exactly sure how accurate this is because I think I have given him a far far to large check raising range, but I think as an excercise in getting my head around the math it works ok.

Hopefully I havent made any glaring errors and can get a couple of responses with where I’ve gone wrong if I have.

Full Tilt Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold’em – 2 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN/SB): $52.60
BB: $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with K A
Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.00) K Q 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB raises to $7, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.00) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $15.00, Hero raises to $44.10, BB calls $26.50 all in

Final Pot: $100.00
Hero shows K A
BB shows 9 Q
Hero wins $96.90
(Rake: $0.50)

This is a hand I played last night. It was like the second or third hand of the match against this opponent, which sorta explains the hand a little. Basically I dont really give much credit to a check raise so early in the match, same theory as the first 4bet being a bluff and all that. So when the flush comes on the turn I was convinced he didnt have it, and against anything else I felt I had decent equity. So lets see if I was right.

To find necessary Fold Equity of my turn shove.

I’ve given the villain a fairly tight calling range of:

99,KQs,K9s,QsJs,QsTs,Q9s,JTs,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,KQo,JTo

With all the suited hands being made flushes. Obviously this range completely destroys us, but I cant see him continuing with anything weaker on this board.

EV = [EV] * x + [EV] * [1-x]

EV of a call = EV = [our equity] * [total pot] – [cost of our call]
EV = .21 * 100 – 41.5
EV Call = -20.5

EV Fold = 32
EV Call = -20.5

Set EV to 0 to find fold equity needed to break even

0 = 32x + (1-x) * -20.5
0 = 32x + (-20.5 + 20.5x)
0 = 32x + (20.5x + -20.5)
0 = 52.5x – 20.5
x = 20.5/52.5
x = 0.39

Fold Equity needed = 39% to break even.

So how do I use this information to help me? I guess thats what I’m supposed to work out next. In this particular hand the villain needing to fold only 39% of the time doesn’t sound particularly high, but then I dont have enough experience to gauge whether villain has enough bluffs or weak hands to fold 39% of the time on this board. Any ideas on how you go about working this out would be good.

Hi,

So this blog will mostly be there to force me to do some sort of session review as this is something I never really currently do. I especially want to concentrate on equity calculations as being terrible at maths its a part of my game that is very lacking.

But first a bit of background info. I’ve been playing poker since October 08 moving from the super micros to .50/1 NL 6 max. Where I ran pretty good on Ipoker, but was a losing player on Full Tilt. After getting sick of losing on Full Tilt I cashed out almost all my roll and started over with $600 at 25nl intending to iron out mistakes in my game and build a new laggier style of play. This lasted a couple of weeks and I didnt really get anywhere so decided to give heads up a go… I’d attempted it a few times before with terrible results. But this time stuck at and started to see some positive results.

So now I’m about a month and a half into my heads up journey and feel like its going really well. Bank roll is up to 2.5k and I seem to be making as much money as when I was playing .50/1 6max whilst still at .25/50c. I guess this is mainly because I table select all the time now after some bad times early on playing anyone.

I feel like heads up is really improving my play, and especially my discipline and I have been known to suffer from tilt. its still there when the super loose passive stacks me 3 times like last night. But now I can walk about after 3 buy ins down instead of 5.

So anyway because I’m 31 and work full time the best time for me to add to this blog is at work lol. However I dont have access to hand histories here so I think I’ll try mix general posts from work with session reviews that I do at home, as that is the main purpose of me creating this blog. And hopefully I can get a few comments, probably mostly pointing out errors in my very basic math!