FuzzyPuppy Snarls

I think the decision was correct. The PATS 4th and short conversion attempts were in the mid 70’s. Other factors likely decrease their true percentage of making it. I will give them a 65% chance of winning the game outright. However, you must also add the small chance Indy does not score from where the ball is turned over. I believe this is an extra 5% chance (conservative) giving the PATS the win 70% of the time.

I would venture to say Indy will score a TD after a punt far more often than 30% of the time so the decision was greatly +EV in my mind. With that said, if Indy had Darrius Heyward-Bey in their receiving corps, this would be a trick question as Indy would lose under every scenario! By the way, as Raiders fan I will soon rant about their ineptitude I am sure.

The funniest (or scariest) thing about this situation is the vast majority of sports figures and writers who say this was the stupidest decision of all-time. Even if you want to play with the variables, the decision must be pretty close. However, many cannot even acknowledge this as a possibility! Dealing with these level 1 thinkers is great in poker but leads to many exasperating moments in life. COME ON PEOPLE! Use your wasted brain mass to actually think about situations instead of just being a sheep who does and says whatever the masses do or say. This is the sort of crap which has the world (and America in particular) in such a funk despite our obvious advances.