September 14, 2011
Since I've been running pretty cold, I wrote down a few hands to go over yesterday, mostly about river decisions. The first 4 were pretty standard and confirmed my immediate suspicions at the table. On 1 hand the math showed a fairly clear call when I thought it was a close fold, so that was a small mistake. The last hand I wrote down was probably the most interesting, even though I pretty much had it figured out on the fly.
Cyclops limps, Mike raises button, CB cc SB, I call in the BB with A6o.
Checks to Mike who bets, CB calls, I c/r, cyclops folds, Mike calls, CB calls.
Turn: A6T 9
CB checks, I bet, Mike calls, CB calls. At this point my hand is always good and Mike usually has something like AQ/AJ/KT/QT/JT/QJ.
River: A6T 9 K
I bet, Mike raises, CB folds and it's on me getting about 12:1. I only need to be good here something like 7% of the time. I tanked and eventually called and really hoped he could have KT on this river. I'm not entirely sure he would raise this river, but I think he would if he can put me on enough worse 2 pair (I guess 6T being the only combo that makes sense from my perspective). I ran the stove and it confirmed my suspicions, if Mike has all combos of KT, I have an easy call. When I cut the combos from all to just suited ones (not because they are different but just as a quick way to discount a % of times he doesn't raise the river with KT), I still had about 9.5% equity, so it becomes a begrudging call.