December 18, 2010
Bad Play, Bad Decisions And, You Guessed It, Variance
Had a really up and down few days on the tables. Was down 5 buy-ins on Thursday, won 3 buy-ins on Friday and dropped 4 buy-ins today (sat).
On Thursday I got my money in on the flop as a 55/45 favorite with a pair, top wrap and flush draw vs KKxxr (1 overpair no draw), hit my straight and got a torrent of abuse from my opponent. This was the same opponent who got all his money in on the turn when I had flopped the nut straight, had a redraw to a higher straight and fd. I bet he called, I bet he called all in with AAKx no fd and hit is gutshot on the river. This kind of irked me a bit so I got into a discussion (1st mistake) where I pointed out getting your money in as a 55% favorite was generally considered an OK play in PLO and that getting your money in as 93 dog was not ideal strategy. I also questioned wether or not he had played PLO before which brought an entertaining response.
So I decided to track him down on a few more tables as I thought I had an edge on him and that he would try and play back at me so I found him on one other table and got on the waiting list. However, it was a deep stack table, but I decide to sit anyway (2nd mistake) and figuring with the somewhat average play I had observed while on the waiting list I decide to buy in for $20 (3rd mistake). People 4 betting preflop with KKxx, calling off the rest of their stacks on turn and river with the nut straight after the flush made it on the turn and losing to, you guessed it, the nut flush. Anyway, I ran pretty bad, betting pot when I hit top set on the flop, 3 callers and on the turn both the flush and straights get there so have to fold when someone leads out for pot etc. Not bad beats just was not hitting my draws and having to fold a lot of hands when obvious draws made it. I was also finding it hard to get value for my made hands. and then I got AAQ8ss, the BTN I know from other tables is quite happy to 3 bet with a wide range of hands, including KKxx, and KT87ss as well as his premium hands.
BTN: $23.43
SB: $7.50
BB: $38.69
UTG: $89.61
Hero (CO): $22.15
Pre Flop: ($0.18) Hero is CO with A
8
Q
A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.38, BTN raises to $1.32, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.14, BTN calls $2.82
Flop: ($8.46) 3
K
5
(3 players)
Hero bets $8.46, BTN raises to $19.27 all in, Hero calls $9.53 all in
Turn: ($44.44) T
(3 players - 2 are all in)
River: ($44.44) T
(3 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: $44.44
BTN shows 7
3
7
3
(a full house, Threes full of Tens)
Hero shows A
8
Q
A
(two pair, Aces and Tens)
BTN wins $43.44
(Rake: $1.00)
The BTN is not a bad player (dodgy preflop 3bets aside) so I know I am behind on the flop, best case pair and wrap worst case trips, in this case the snap shove means I am pretty certain I am up against a set, but I am getting slightly better than 3.5-1 if I call so I am pot committed in my eyes even if he shows me his hand.
Sigh....
What I took away from this is why the hell I am playing deep stacked PLO when I don't really know how to adjust my game and when I do not want to expose myself to 2 buy ins worth of risk. Bad decision. Not a good day.
Friday was pretty good, got my money in as a favorite and won, lost when I was behind all in all pretty standard and finished up 2.5 buy ins and was happy.
Saturday was variance day. Sat down on a PLO10 table with 2 big stacks, $50 and $60, who had stats of VPIP 67, PFR 22 and VPIP 96, PFR 48 over 35 hands, and lost 2 races and got it all in on the flop when I was 83% favorite improved to 93% on the turn and then the gutshot hit. Nice $30 pot gone. Variance (can't get the converter to work but it was ugly). I was not to worried about this cos I figured I would get a chance to win my money back but 2 orbits later they both upped and left. Worse variance. Nevermind, with an early start tomorrow and 10hrs at work I figure to be down this week.
- Hands Played: 1,682
- BB/100: -15.01
- $/hr -1.98
