2012 plan

Been up and down in stakes like a yoyo recently for one reason or another.  Having a lot of realisations about poker as I study more and my results are (other than last week!) way less swingy than they used to be so now I just need to have the confidence to put a lot of hands in consistently and move up.  5000 hands a week really isn't going to get me anywhere fast so all that time I spend trawling forums and watching High Stakes Poker online is gonna be replaced by grinding.

I'm aiming for 15,000 this week, still not a lot I know but if I make it too extreme I'm likely to not make it anywhere close. 

This week's 5,000.  Let's hope the 15,000 graph is similar.

Haven't put a hand in here recently, so here goes.  A nice Zoom 5nl one.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1732454
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Rommmyy: $5.79
Hero (): $5.11
Oplot365: $5.06
simpson3107: $5.57
bobina001: $3.87
ezeoli: $6.07

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is with J A
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, Oplot365 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30) T 6 3(2 players)
Hero bets $0.21, Oplot365 calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.72) 4(2 players)
Hero bets $0.37, Oplot365 calls $0.37

River: ($1.46) T(2 players)
Hero bets $0.77, Oplot365 calls $0.77

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero shows J A (a pair of Tens)
Oplot365 shows 2 3 (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Oplot365 wins $2.88
(Rake: $0.12)

Tilting my arse off now.  They're folding when I'm good and calling down with 32 when I'm not.  Added to this I'm 7bi below EV today which makes it over 30bi below EV for the year.  Poker has taken me outside, smashed my head against the wall and gone back in to finish my drink.

For some reason I've not previously been able to keep a consistent streak of successful play to the point where I've felt confident that if I played enough, I'd turn a profit.  There was always the inevitability of a bad session that would soak up all the winnings of the week and leave me with a smaller bankroll than I'd started with (OK that's a bit of an exaggeration but it happened a lot).

I say "for some reason".  I'm pretty sure it was a combination of 2 things.  1) There was the cycle of I get better, get cocky and start thinking I can play any two cards, lose money, think I'm a donk, analyse, repeat; and 2) I'd move up without a big enough roll, worry about the money a bit too much, not play well and not move down in time after losses.

Realising this was a good sign.  I was cursing my luck over the last few months, running plenty under EV, getting sucked out on on the river all the time.  Really, I'm so lucky that happened and I didn't run well because if I had I may not have realised just how far I still have to go.  I figure if I run bad and still make it to 100nl and beyond I must be doing something right.

So I've been working hard on my game recently.  To me, the effect on my game is pretty visible in that I'm more aggressive pre- and post-flop than I was a few weeks ago, I'm value-betting thinner and making lighter calldowns.

I've rewatched a lot of Grindcore vids recently and inspired by that I've been taking tons of notes on everyone and been willing to call down even lighter than normal if it means I'll get a read.  I've noticed something because of this that I wasn't really conscious of before because generally I'd be folding on the flop - it's incredibly common to get raised by top pair good kicker on pretty much any kind of flop.  I think the reason must be that the person thinks, "OK, I've probably got the best hand but I'm not confident enough to play postflop so I want to end it here and take whatever money I can get."

Another thing that's been happening a lot is people donking with top pair weak kicker, I'm guessing for the same reasons.

I'm enjoying the game a lot more now than I have in a while, too, seeing it as more of a challenge to figure out each individual and less of a grind to make a few quid.  I figure the money will come of its own accord as I get better.  I've found this helps fend off tilt, too.

So, all going well right now.  I've been lucky enough to "win" a couple of hours coaching from a mid-stakes coach which is happening today so we'll go through a session and see if we can work out a practice schedule.  Gotta make the most of the time.

Quick aghast note: I just added the $Without Blinds stat to my HEM2 reports page for the hell of it and was horrified to see the number was 3 times the amount I'd paid in rake over the last 18 months.  Priority number 1 has just become learn to defend my blinds better.

Hmm, well after last week's brief playing session to see if I could bink the 75 billionth ps hand, I've gone and breached my "no play in February" rule a couple of times this week.  No real money play, but some playmoney heads up and some freeroll / fpp tournies. 

Played at PKR for the first time in one of the freerolls.  How the hell does anyone get used to the interface?  And do all women in casinos really have cleavages like that?

I've done a ton of work on my game since my self-enforced hiatus.  Still loads to do but I'm feeling like I'm at least getting somewhere.  I think I'd have got to this point a lot quicker if only I'd concentrated on learning materials that suited my way of thinking.  So much when I'm reading a book or checking out a vid I think that if I was being taught something at uni, for example, with that level of vagueness I'd be complaining.  I'm not knocking DC at all here, books are by far the worst at this.  They'll say stuff like "With top pair here against this fish you can bet out and often take it down.  If he calls and he's a calling station he's probably still weak but if he's tight and folds to cbets a ton he's probably got something" well, **** me sideways, really???

That sort of thing is absolutely useless if you ask me.  Like if someone was learning how to sell a car or something you wouldn't start off by saying, "right, well if the guy likes to drink coffee on his way to work, make sure to point out the cup holder".  It's too specific and too obvious.  There's so much stuff out there that tells you to adapt but there's so little that says what to do before you adapt.  What am I adapting from exactly?  I need a norm.

OK, rant over.  Any DC Starcraft players out there?  I'm just getting into it and it's damn addictive stuff!

No, my weakness hasn't won out already.  I figured the extra EV in playing for PS's 75 billionth hand would be a shame to miss seeing as I was at my PC anyway.  So I fired about 8 or 9 tables of 6 max and full ring.  Of course the 75,000,000,000 passed by without a whisper on any of my tables, ah well, won a few bucks on the session.

I did have a couple of interesting hands.  Forgive the preflop on the 44, I've played about 10k full ring hands in my life and that was over a year ago.

Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1623285
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter


UTG+1: $16.00 - VPIP: 8, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 25

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is UTG with 4 4
Hero raises to $0.48, UTG+1 calls $0.48, 7 folds

Flop: ($1.20) 8 8 9(2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.70) 8(2 players)
Hero bets $2.08, UTG+1 calls $2.08

River: ($6.86) J(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

Right, so usually I'm a "not bluff without equity" kind of guy but I think this guy is gonna fold enough on the flop that I can cbet any two here.  He calls and we get another 8 on the turn and he calls again.  At this point I'm thinking overbet shove on river as he's either got a monster or he'll have a very hard time calling, I can have all the overpairs and I don't think he does. 

I'm putting him on pocket pairs from QQ to 77 and that's it.  I don't have enough hands on the guy and haven't made a read as yet as I've be multi-tabling and listening to a vid and trying to make thousands off of PS.  The 77 is because sometimes he just won't believe me, 88 he can't have.  99 would be brutal, TT, JJ, QQ are the most likely. 

Anway, he looks pretty tight and in the end I tanked so long that I figured he wouldn't believe me anyway and I checked back.  Thing is I think most tags would fold a massive amount of their range here to an overbet shove but maybe just enough would call the JJ and QQ which I think are by far the most likely holdings.  Also I wasn't entirely sure this guy wasn't a passive fish who doesn't 3bet ever and could turn up with KK or AA.  I still think an overbet shove is best and I need to have more confidence in my play.

2nd hand is also full ring:

Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1623300
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+2: $9.61 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 7
Hero (BTN): $19.17SB: $7.92 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 5.0, Hands: 15
BB: $12.59 - VPIP: 71, PFR: 3, 3B: 13, AF: 0.7, Hands: 34
UTG: $12.80 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2.5, Hands: 51

Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BTN with A K
UTG raises to $0.48, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls $0.48, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.48, 1 fold, BB calls $0.32

Flop: ($2.00) K 9 Q(4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $1.12, UTG+2 calls $1.12, Hero calls $1.12, BB calls $1.12

Turn: ($6.48) 4(4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $4.48, UTG+2 calls $4.48, Hero folds, BB calls $4.48

River: ($19.92) T(3 players)
BB bets $6.51, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds

Final Pot: $19.92
BB wins $19.02
(Rake: $0.90)

6max I'd play this differently but 9-handed and 4way vs an UTG raise first in I think I'm against too many KQ, sets and big combos draws here and to make matters worse I'm not last to act.  Nitty, yes, did it save me a few bucks, yes, I can't call turn and river but I don't think I'm ahead enough to jam the turn.  After seeing the river action, though, who knows.

Haven't played much in the last couple of weeks as work has been mental.  Doing some contracting, though, so should have some days off here and there for a while and better not just study poker all day - reckon I should get out and about and do something interesting.  I live in London so anyone who knows the city and can think of some places of interest that might be worth checking out (and aren't really obvious!) please give me a heads up.

So poker-wise, what's going on?  Contrary to the general consensus I actually think playing a load is a bit over-rated as far as improvement is concerned when compared with studying.  Yeah, you can get a feel for stuff but it's also too easy just to let it all wash over you to the point where, rather than using play to improve, all it's doing is spinning your tyres til you're in a rut.  So I'm gonna test that theory and not play a hand of online poker in February but instead spend the time I'd usually play in studying.

Which one of the following will happen???

i) I get itchy poker-fingers and start playing.

ii) I start again in March feeling I've learned a ton but for some reason when a 32/5 3bets me then pots all 3 streets I'm pretty sure he's bluffing.

iii) I start again in March feeling I've learned nothing and probably shouldn't have played quite so much Xbox.

iv) I start again in March with my game at a new level.

Here's hoping for iv) but it'll be fun finding out.

Quick edit: Just seen that the day after I decide to do this Pokerstars goes and makes poker more profitable.  I shall resist, I shall resist...

Played 3 sessions this weekend.  2 half-hours and a 4-hour one.  The 4-hour session netted me a loss of about half a buy-in and the 2 others a win of over 3bi. 

When doing session reviews in HEM I've noticed that my longer sessions do tend to be at best average and at worst terrible.  It isn't that I get tired, my winrate at the end tends to be no worse than at any other time during the session.  It points towards a mindset thing.  Do I sit there at the beginning of a long session and think "OK let's not be too aggro early on as if I lose a buy-in I might tilt", yeah possibly.  Also, I've made bad plays at the beginnings of sessions and thought "well that's OK, the others'll think I'm an idiot and they'll be spewy against me". 

These ways of thinking are not doing me any good.  I have a game and I need to play it from the first hand til the last hand of a session.  If I lose a buy-in early then, whatever, life is one big session right?!  It's not early in this session it's just part of the last one and the next one.  Also, aggression is good in poker, the last thing I want is people thinking I'm an idiot because that will likely heighten their aggression, I'll be helping them play better.

Right, here's an early hand from the long session to show you how weak-tight I can get:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1596124
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $23.55
BTN: $16.75
SB: $22.71
Hero (BB): $25.20
UTG: $26.93
MP: $19.79

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 3 8
4 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.50) J 7 Q(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.50) 7(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.50) Q(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: $0.50
SB shows 9 A (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
Hero mucks 3 8
SB wins $0.48
(Rake: $0.02)

So the 28/2 completes and checks a board this wet, then I pick up equity on the turn and don't take the pot down, then, when I have absolutely no chance of winning the hand on the river, villain checks again and I let it go.  These blinds add up.

I'd hoped to be able to finish the 50k-hand ballers on a budget challenge which ends this month but there's no way I'll be able to put the hands in 2-tabling.

Since August I've been working on certain aspects of my game with the idea that I'd jump up to 25nl once I felt confident enough.  Rake at the lower stakes is high and time is really important so I made the decision that if I felt comfortable at 25nl I'd stay there, even if under-rolled, I'd take the shot. 

That time came a couple of weeks ago.  Up until then, including the 7-8 weeks from the start of the 50k challenge I'd gone through a big downswing, 16+ tabling 5-10nl.  I was on major tilt, knew I was learning more and jumping between, "I just need to put all this work into practice and I'll crush" and "this game is impossible, the winners are there because they got lucky over a long period".  The need to put in tons of hands during the time I had to play just drove me to play more and more tables, not putting anything into practice.

So finally I now have enough to think about that the extra time I have 2- to 3-tabling is worth having.  I've only a small sample at 25nl but the graph's going in the right direction and it's much nicer to look at than the 2nl-10nl hands that have gone before which were essentially a very gradual downward slope.  I was afraid of losing a lot fast so I lost it gradually instead.

 I've only played 17 minutes of poker since my last post but I did say I'd post a bad hand each time so here goes.  Perfect example of why I gradually lost money at 2-10nl and something I need to totally get away from:

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1591026
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 9, 3B: 13, AF: 1.7, Hands: 32
SB: $31.17 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 36
BB: $32.28 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 15, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 13
UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 36
Hero (MP): $30.05
CO: $30.11 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 36, 3B: 8, AF: 1.5, Hands: 36

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with 5 5
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.75, CO raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.35) J Q 8(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($3.35) 2(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($3.35) T(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.35
CO wins $3.19
(Rake: $0.16)

I'm fine with the call pre- vs the min-3bet but if I'm gonna call it I need to be prepared to bet the turn after Villain checks.  What am I hoping for?  There aren't many total blanks to come and Villain isn't going to let me get to the river with his stats.  55 isn't a hand that can check-call a reasonable bet here, I think I should bet with the intention of barrelling the river (but maybe not this river!).  Villain turned over a T so at least I was able to fold this one.

Edit: looking at this again, maybe discretion was the better part of valour given Villain's stats.  What do you reckon?