2012 plan

Ah, so I had to withdraw my roll yet again.  This is quite frustrating but would definitely be more so if I couldn't see an end to it.  Been kinda treading water for the last year or something.  I'll play, move up, cash out, put a few quid back in, play, move up, cash out.  

The worst thing I think is I can see the poker world moving on.  Yes, I'm moving with it but if games are getting tougher and tougher then I need to be able to keep building a roll, rather than starting from scratch every month or two.

I didn't finish the 50k challenge, partly because of this and partly because I just didn't have the time to put in enough hands.  The attempt did prompt me to start playing Zoom, though.  The fact that I'm getting better at poker is evidenced (to me at least) in that I'm profiting at Zoom whereas pre-Black Friday my graph at Rush just went down and down.  Hmm, having said that, that's not quite fair on myself - I look at the game in an entirely different way than I did back then so it's to be expected.

There's some interesting stuff going on at DC at the moment with all the GTO stuff.  Possibly the thing that's most incredible to me is the number of people to whom this stuff is new.  I guess if you were winning without it back in the day there was no point in learning it.  It's kind of similar (I think) to the people who play a bit of guitar but never look into it any deeper than being able to make a few chords sound good.  It actually takes a fair while for a beginner to get to that point - so if you like it enough to get there how come you don't want to know everything about it?

I do have some predictions for what's going to happen in the (me-centric) poker world, I think I'll do a bit of a time capsule and not write it here but save it on a Word doc which I'll paste here in a year.  I'll tell you the first line "I'll have actually managed to build a friggin' roll for more than 2 months."

I've been back playing for about a month or so now and I've started completely afresh.  Ditched my old database (well it's still there, I'm a hoarder) so it now reflects the new me.  As you'll be able to see if you look at my graph in the 50k hand challenge thread, I'm still not exactly playing a million hands a minute but I'm so much more confident now in my 6max game that I'm not blanching at the idea of sitting down to play anymore and I'm really enjoying myself, so the hands will come.

There have in fact been a few more played since that graph and now the red line isn't just horizontal, it's on the way up!  Huge props to Improva here, who I've had some coaching with since I started back, I look at my graph and my stats now compared to what they were before I stopped playing and the change is just insane.  Maybe I should dig out the old db and post THAT graph.  It's actually pretty funny, virtually mirror image red and blue lines, I couldn't draw it better with a ruler and set square.

Still, small sample size I know and I don't think I'll really breathe out til I've got a decent winrate over the next 50k hands or so.  Pretty sure I won't make the 50k for the challenge but I'll give it a decent shot, maybe a solid weekend of zoom to finish!

Anyone keen on chatting some CREV, drop me a PM.

D

Funny, I wrote that title after reading a recent Improva post where he talks about monkeys on horses, I think my subconscious is taking the p*ss.

I haven't played a hand of poker (other than home games stuff) for 2 months for various reasons.  Next week I'll be back into it barring disasters and looking to chase down the 50k hands in the ballers on a budget bracket of the DC challenge.  I'll be moving primarily back to 6max but will keep playing some nano-stakes heads up because it's a lot of fun!  

My game has changed massively in the past 2 months despite not playing (in how many fields can you say that?) - the time away from the tables has given me lots of time to work on other aspects of my game so I'm quite excited to get going and see how different it feels.  I'll be getting some coaching straight away, too, so watch out fellow budget brawlers!

So iPoker went and split in two and for some reason there aren't any 2nl HU tables anymore.  Ah well, probably was time to move on to 4nl anyway.

Been having trouble against random aggressiveness this week with a few people 3betting me over 50% so I've been working on some ranges with CREV that I can turn to.  Any views appreciated on this.  Not sure whether at 50%-60% the range is so depolarised that I'm actually better off not having much of a calling range but have a wide 4bet range with a ton of bluffs or whether I should hardly 4bet at all and play against the weak range.  It's difficult to bluff effectively when people are calling / raising randomly but at the same time defending air postflop in a 3bet pot against random play isn't fun.

Of course the answer changes based on the villain, I've just got to get a bit more comfortable facing that sort of aggression.  Work to do.

Rake so far is running at just under 20bb/100 which is high but so far at least I'm profiting.  Had a terrible day a few days ago where I lost several buyins which didn't help the cause but it's given me a lot to review!  It's also got me seriously considering buying TiltBuster.  I've downloaded the free trial so we'll see.

For some reason a ton of people read the last blog, either that or there was a DC glitch.  I can only think it had something to do with the unexpected popularity of the Modern Pentathlon as it didn't even have a graph in it!

NB: skip to end for poker content.

Yesterday my girlfriend and I headed down to Greenwich Park to check out the last 3 events from the men's Modern Pentathlon. I knew next to nothing about it before going (studied up on what the events were but that's about it). For those not in the know, first of all everyone has a fencing bout vs everyone else (not all at the same time unfortunately), then there's a 200m swim. My tickets didn't cover either of those events.

The event following that is show-jumping. I've never been a big fan of this on the telly but it was pretty exciting, to be honest. Something that adds to that excitement in the pentathlon is that for the 36 contestants there are 18 horses and which athlete gets which horse is down to a draw that happens an hour before the event. This led to a lot of horses and riders clearly not getting on with each other. A few horses tried to throw their rider, one succeeded and it got pretty close to being very nasty; looked like horse had fallen on rider but turned out to be fine. The horse was caught and the rider ran after it, got on and completed the course, all while the clock was running!

Based on scores after these rounds there's a combined run and shoot (with laser pistols, I kid you not - imagine my excitement when I saw that in the programme!). It's a bit like the biathlon with less snow. After a tough race the winner was David Svoboda of the Czech Rep. Well done to him. The home team got 10th and 13th so sadly no more medals added to the frankly awesome tally GB have got so far.

When did we get good at this sort of thing? Used to be we were rubbish at the Olympics and decent at football. Now our footballers are pretty embarrassing on and off the pitch and it's this stuff we're good at. What happened?

Right onto the poker. I've moved totally over to HU, got myself a coach and plan on working hard to get good at the game. I spent a couple of weeks going through a ton of DC and CR HU content to get a feel for how preflop and postflop ranges differ from 6max, had my first coaching session last week and have played a bit.

So far I much prefer it to 6max. It's more like an argument or chess game than I experienced playing against 5 other people, even folding preflop doesn't feel like "oh I'm not playing this hand", but rather it's part of a strategy for manipulating this opponent. No doubt that's highlighting my weakness at 6max rather than anything else. I probably should have been thinking that way but for some reason never felt in the game enough to do that. When it's one on one there's no escaping it, you ARE part of the game ALL the time.

Yeah, I was feeling it on that last post.  Apologies to my regular readers!

Been doing some interesting stuff recently.  Job-wise, contracting for a company based in Covent Garden, which I love.  One of my favourite places in London, just such a great atmosphere.  It's really getting packed with people coming in for the Olympics now, too, I notice a difference every day.

Speaking of the Olympics, my girlfriend and I scored a couple of tickets.  For those not living in England that might not sound such a big deal, but we can't just buy them, we have to apply for them.  You don't get a choice of what you want to see, either.  Was it like that everywhere else?

On another note, I've been getting to grips with programming in Python.  Never programmed anything before (well, apart from a Spectrum back in the day, Basic anyone?)  It's surprisingly logical, which is a relief, and I'm writing little programs after only a little work.  Wonder how long it'll be before I can replace my HEM2 with Deets1.0.

Poker-wise, I've changed tack on my study a bit.  I realised that I was putting a ton of theory in, so I could analyse hands away from the table, but when it came to playing I wasn't doing the things my studying told me I should be doing.  I'd always find an excuse, too.  "I can't bluff-raise here because he's a bit call-y", "value-betting this river is too thin".  So far things have been going pretty well.  Still make a ton of stupid mistakes of course but I'll iron them out.

Trying to get comfortable with CardRunnersEV, it's a great program and I'd like to look into a systematic way of working with it that fits into my regular hand review.  At the moment my use of it is sporadic at best but I think really diving into specific spots will do a ton for my play.

Alright, that's it, will update post-Olympics!

Deleted my original post as it was basically whining over bad beats.  Short version is I'm nearly at the end of my tether with scraping together a consistent profit over a long period only to lose it all in one awful session.  I just can't get a firm grip on profit. 

Everyone always has it at the moment, or when they don't they suck out.  It's f*cking life-sucking.

Been up and down in stakes like a yoyo recently for one reason or another.  Having a lot of realisations about poker as I study more and my results are (other than last week!) way less swingy than they used to be so now I just need to have the confidence to put a lot of hands in consistently and move up.  5000 hands a week really isn't going to get me anywhere fast so all that time I spend trawling forums and watching High Stakes Poker online is gonna be replaced by grinding.

I'm aiming for 15,000 this week, still not a lot I know but if I make it too extreme I'm likely to not make it anywhere close. 

This week's 5,000.  Let's hope the 15,000 graph is similar.

Haven't put a hand in here recently, so here goes.  A nice Zoom 5nl one.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1732454
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Rommmyy: $5.79
Hero (): $5.11
Oplot365: $5.06
simpson3107: $5.57
bobina001: $3.87
ezeoli: $6.07

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is with J A
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, Oplot365 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30) T 6 3(2 players)
Hero bets $0.21, Oplot365 calls $0.21

Turn: ($0.72) 4(2 players)
Hero bets $0.37, Oplot365 calls $0.37

River: ($1.46) T(2 players)
Hero bets $0.77, Oplot365 calls $0.77

Final Pot: $3.00
Hero shows J A (a pair of Tens)
Oplot365 shows 2 3 (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Oplot365 wins $2.88
(Rake: $0.12)

Tilting my arse off now.  They're folding when I'm good and calling down with 32 when I'm not.  Added to this I'm 7bi below EV today which makes it over 30bi below EV for the year.  Poker has taken me outside, smashed my head against the wall and gone back in to finish my drink.

For some reason I've not previously been able to keep a consistent streak of successful play to the point where I've felt confident that if I played enough, I'd turn a profit.  There was always the inevitability of a bad session that would soak up all the winnings of the week and leave me with a smaller bankroll than I'd started with (OK that's a bit of an exaggeration but it happened a lot).

I say "for some reason".  I'm pretty sure it was a combination of 2 things.  1) There was the cycle of I get better, get cocky and start thinking I can play any two cards, lose money, think I'm a donk, analyse, repeat; and 2) I'd move up without a big enough roll, worry about the money a bit too much, not play well and not move down in time after losses.

Realising this was a good sign.  I was cursing my luck over the last few months, running plenty under EV, getting sucked out on on the river all the time.  Really, I'm so lucky that happened and I didn't run well because if I had I may not have realised just how far I still have to go.  I figure if I run bad and still make it to 100nl and beyond I must be doing something right.