September 30, 2009

Ship the jinx

Hours after posting I put up my 2nd worst day of the year. Nice to have that out of my system haha.

Challenge time I’d say. Not sure what I’m going to do but I’ll figure it out soon enough. I’m sure it will involve plenty of limit hold’em and a lot of o8 though. NL action has been pretty inconsistent for me HUHU below 5/10 (lot of regs…a LOT of regs) so I’ll probably grind mid stakes HULHE and some short handed O8 for a while.

Definitely some mid stakes PLO8 as well.

Odd hand from the other day I’ve been meaning to post about. I open KQJThh and get called from the SB.

Flop K52 and I check back. This flop is an auto check-back vs. short stackers but this guy was full stack. I think it’s close but vs. more passive opponents i like a bet.

Anyway, turn was the Jh giving me top 2 + FD and I bet out pot after he checked. He called.

The river was the 4h.

He checked.

In PLO8 I would fire pot here because I would expect him to call with some worse flushes, maybe call 2 pair. I’m in a crap spot because he won’t really fold a low though. The more I bet the more likely he will fold a low.

That got me to wondering if I should be overbetting in NLO8 when i’ve got the villain squarely on a low. I mean, if he always has a low obviously just ship and hope he folds. The question is how often am I right when I have the villain “squarely” on a low?

I think pretty often. I think almost always. So I think I should start overbetting here.

Posted By danzasmack at 10:37 PM

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